This isn't investment advice. Just for kicks. Use the form below if you want me to address something.
A rough write up. I'll make edits over time.
Last update 6/7/21
R2K inclusion confirmed. ATOS passive buying by index funds will begin 6/25/21. Naturally, there will be people front running this.
Breast Cancer Treatment summary
Currently, tamoxifen is mostly used after surgery (adjuvant treatment) for HR+ breast cancer patients to prevent relapse. Its primary mechanism is blocking cancer cells from interacting with the body's estrogen, preventing the cancer cell from growing. Tamoxifen is a drug which has to be activated by the human body's CYP enzymes first. Once activated, tamoxifen is morphed into Endoxifen. The activation process however is inefficient so you won’t get a 1:1 yield. This is an oversimplification, but enough.
Endoxifen
Evidence shows Endoxifen being superior to Tamoxifen and could be superior to aromatase inhibitors (letrozole and anastrazole) as well. See link#1. It showed no significant difference vs Fulvestrant--Astrazenca's drug which had $1B in 2018 sales. If these results are reproducible in human trials, Endoxifen could supplant these other drugs.
Endoxifen Side effects vs others
(In progress)
Endoxifen Steady State
Endoxifen reaches therapeutic levels in 8 hours and steady state in as little as 7 days, whereas tamoxifen could take 50-200 days. This suggests Endoxifen could also be used as a neoadjuvant (pre-surgery) in place of chemotherapy or other aromatase inhibitors (letrozole or anastrazole), thus increasing it's addressable market.
Why don’t other companies just make Endoxifen
My understanding is the Endoxifen molecule isn’t owned by anyone. Anyone can make it if they’d like. So there’s no reason for Pfizer to do all the studies and suddenly have TEVA pump out generic endoxifen and be a leech.
ATOS has a proprietary form. If clinical trials using the proprietary form prove favorable, this becomes the drug form that’s used. So TEVA couldn’t suddenly decide to make a bunch of the non-proprietary version and give it to patients--this is illegal.
Addressable Market
(In progress) HR+ breast cancer patients, as a both neoadjuvant + adjuvant market
On 3/11/21, The FDA approved Endoxifen for compassionate use in a patient with recurring ovarian cancer. This request originated from Dr. Goff, Chief of Surgery, at the University of Washington. Dr. Goff, in organoid cultures grown from the patient's tumor cells, showed endoxifen and alpelisib produced a favorable response. This further expands endoxifen's addressable market. Also of note, ovarian cancer only accounts for 1.2% of all new cancer cases, but only 48.6% will live past 5 years--among the lowest of all cancers.
Financials
Raised enough cash to get through 2021 so no dilution worries here
Upcoming Events
Inclusion in the Russell Index will spur passive index buying. Like TSLA in the S&P. (credit to TQA)
I've been getting questions regarding a gamma DD on penny stocks which happens to link my DD. It talks about the index inclusion I mention here as well as underlying elements that could cause a gamma ramp leading to a squeeze.
I do agree with the DD, and truly welcome all market forces in favor of ATOS and investors. HOWEVER, keep in mind, ANYTHING can happen in this market--I've seen it all and "it doesn't make sense!!!" is not a valid excuse for blowing your life savings.
Bottom line: position yourself appropriately
INCLUSION INTO R2K confirmed. Index funds and passive buying will start buying 6/25/21
Announcement of further clinical trials
Potential Risks
Dr. Steven Quay continues to drag his feet. There are plenty of publications supporting Endoxifen's promising potential since the 2000s, yet here we are in 2020 barely wrapping up a Phase 2 trial.
Price Target
Gilead acquired Immunomedics in 2020 for 21B. Their drug, Troldevy, addresses the HR-/HER2- subtype (10% of all breast cancers) with projected sales of $480M for 2022. If we used 21B as the upper-bound valuation, ATOS would be worth ~$173. A more conservative target would be 4B, pricing ATOS at ~$33. Keep in mind that Endoxifen treats HR+ subtypes which accounts for at least 68% of all breast cancers.
Why a big pharma should acquire ATOS
Endoxifen isn't a new drug so the risk of failure relative to a novel drug is significantly less. There are plenty of studies showcasing its potential superiority to current breast cancer treatments. And recently, Dr. Goff, from recurring ovarian cancer cell cultures, revealed Endoxifen's potential role in treating ovarian cancer.
ATOS's proprietary endoxifen and relevant patents make this a win for all parties involved.
The acquiring big pharma can profit from this exclusively.
Breast cancer patients have a new treatment modality that could be superior to current ones
Ovarian cancer patients could up their odds of surviving to better than 48.6%. As is, the odds are less than guessing a coin flip correctly...
Seeing the evidence available thus far, the results from upcoming trials are likely positive. With each positive piece of news, ATOS's valuation goes up and it becomes more likely that Endoxifen will succeed. This will increase the chances of a bidding war between pharma Titans. Acquiring ATOS now would be a steal for big pharmas. 4 billion in today's money is 6 billion in 2022 money when pricing in new positive developments. Thank Jerome Powell for the inflation.
Big pharmas: McKinsey couldn't give you this ethical, high-quality, and socially-responsible play even if you paid them top dollar.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/27/business/mckinsey-purdue-oxycontin-opioids.html
Potential Partners
Gilead: They had 3 aggressive 2020 acquisitions in the oncology space. They're looking to bolster their oncology line. Trodelvy by most accounts has been a flop and only treats triple-negative-breast-cancer (10% of breast cancer incidences). Gilead paid 1/4 of their current market cap for Trodelvy despite projected 2022 sales of under $500M
(I’ll look at Pfizer’s, Eli Lily’s and Astrazeneca’s pipeline later. Pfizer’s ibrance is also floppy from what I’ve glanced at.)
What I want to see
Less COVID-19 tweets. Move on already, Quay.
I want to see the absolute final KI-values from this past trial.
I want to see an ATOS buyout so that Endoxifen can finally hit the market.
TLDR
ATOS could be worth 4 billion because Endoxifen is potentially superior to current SERMS and AI drugs based on the bits of evidence we have. Furthermore, endoxifen's pharmacokinetics could earn it a role as both a neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapy. Because Endoxifen isn't technically a new drug and has a decent amount of studies on it, the failure risk is less compared to a completely novel drug. Additionally, big pharmas have made expensive bets on novel oncology drugs to bolster their breast cancer armory. Endoxifen would only strengthen the armamentarium of any one of these pharma titans.
If you guys need a risk analogy. For pharma companies, chasing novel drugs is like buying far OTM weekly calls, whereas acquiring ATOS (endoxifen) is like selling covered calls.
I’m comfortable buying ATOS at $1 to $3. Great risk:reward in my opinion considering buyout price targets: ~$33 at 4B || ~$16.5 at $2B