First Asian Conference on Expectations in Macroeconomics
Macau, April 28 - 29, 2025
Hosted by Department of Economics, University of Macau
Organizer: Pei Kuang
Conference venue:
Room E21B-G002
Humanities and Social Sciences Building
University of Macau
E21B Avenida da Universidade
Taipa
Macau
Final conference program
All times are in China Standard Time (CST).
Format:
25 mins presentation + 10 mins Q & A.
Keynote: 45 mins presentation + 15 mins Q & A.
Day 1 (April 28):
8.20 - 8.50 Registration (Room E21B-G002)
8.50 - 9 Welcome remarks
Richard Weixing Hu, Dean of Faculty of Social Sciences
Session 1:
Chair: Jinill Kim (Korea University)
9 - 9.35 Beliefs from Cues
John J Conlon (Carnegie Mellon University)
Spencer Kwon (Brown University)
9.35 - 10.35 Keynote - The Formation of Macroeconomic Expectations:
Global Evidence
Francesco d'Acunto (Georgetown University)
Michael Weber (University of Chicago)
Keynote chair: Jinill Kim (Korea University)
10.35 - 11.05 Coffee
Session 2:
Chair: Renbin Zhang (Shandong University)
11.05 - 11.40 Monetary Perception Gaps and the Ripple Effects of
Earnings Surprises
Wei Cui (University College London)
Maarten Meeuwis (Washington University in St. Louis)
Xiao Yin (University College London)
11.40 - 12.15 Macroeconomic Expectations and Limited Awareness
Davide Debortoli (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Luigi Iovino (Bocconi University)
Nicola Pavoni (Bocconi University)
Donghai Zhang (National University of Singapore)
12.15 - 13.45 Lunch at Café Rose Garden
Session 3:
Chair: Sili Zhou (University of Macau)
13.45 - 14.20 Evolving Reputation for Commitment: Understanding
US Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Robert King (Boston University)
Yang Lu (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
14.20 - 14.55 Beyond the Short Run: Monetary Policy and Innovation
Investment
Michaela Elfsbacka-Schmoeller (Bank of Finland, ECB)
Olga Goldfayn-Frank (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Tobias Schmidt (Deutsche Bundesbank)
14.55 - 15.30 Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of
Monetary Policy
Ding Dong (Hong Kong Baptist University)
Zheng Liu (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Pengfei Wang (Peking University)
Min Wei (Federal Reserve Board)
15.30 - 16.00 Coffee
Session 4:
Chair: Pei Kuang (University of Macau)
16.00 - 16.35 Overreaction in Expectations under Signal Extraction:
Experimental Evidence
John Duffy (University of California, Irvine)
Nobuyuki Hanaki (University of Osaka)
Donghoon Yoo (Korea University)
16.35 - 17.35 Keynote - Consumer Attitudes towards a Central Bank
Digital Currency
Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)
Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank)
Luc Laeven (European Central Bank)
Justus Meyer (European Central Bank and University of Glasgow)
Keynote chair: Pei Kuang (University of Macau)
18.30 Dinner at Miramar restaurant
Day 2 (April 29):
Session 5:
Chair: Nobuyuki Hanaki (University of Osaka)
9 - 9.35 The Causal Effect of News on Inflation Expectations
Carola Binder (University of Texas at Austin)
Pascal Frank (University of Notre Dame)
Jane Ryngaert (University of Notre Dame)
9.35 - 10.35 Keynote - Teach Don’t Give: Mental Models,
Understanding, and Communication
Michael McMahon (University of Oxford)
Ryan Rholes (University of Mississippi)
Peter Rickards (University of Oxford)
Keynote chair: Nobuyuki Hanaki (University of Osaka)
10.35 - 11.05 Coffee
Session 6:
Chair: Te Bao (Nanyang Technological University)
11.05 - 11.40 Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration
under Knightian Uncertainty
Yulei Luo (University of Hong Kong)
Jun Nie (Wuhan University)
Eric Young (University of Virginia)
11.40 - 12.15 The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic
Expectations: High-Frequency Evidence from Trade
Event Contracts
Eric Swanson (University of California, Irvine)
Renxuan Wang (China Europe International Business School)
Yanbin Wu (University of Florida)
12.15 - 13.45 Lunch at Café Rose Garden
Session 7:
Chair: Yibai Yang (University of Macau)
13.45 - 14.20 Show and Tell: The effects of Seeing, Hearing and
Perceiving Central Bank Messages
Michelle Alexopoulos (University of Toronto)
Xinfen Han (Bank of Canada)
Xu Zhang (Bank of Canada)
14.20 - 14.55 Inspecting the Mechanism of Diagnostic Expectations:
An Analytical Approach
Jinill Kim (Korea University)
14.55 - 15.30 Towards a Unifying Framework for Distortions in
Macroeconomic Expectations
Maren Bartels (University of Lucerne)
Johannes Bingswanger (University of St. Gallen)
Albert Flak (University of St. Gallen)
Manuel Oechslin (University of Lucerne)
15.30 - 16.00 Coffee
Session 8:
Chair: Donghoon Yoo (Korea University)
16.00 - 16.35 Vague FOMC Communication
Calvin Dun Jia (Peking University)
Zijun Yang (Peking University)
16.35 - 17.10 Robust Expectations Adaptation
Te Bao (Nanyang Technological University)
Peter Bossaerts (Cambridge University)
Jiaoying Pei (Cambridge University)
18.30 Dinner at Grand Plaza restaurant
Accommodation:
2/F, N1, UM Guest House
University of Macau
Avenida da Universidade
Taipa
Macau
Arrival and directions:
I. From Hong Kong airport to UM
https://www.macauhkairportbus.com/
When you arrive at Hong Kong Airport, You can take the Macau Hong Kong Airport Direct to arrive the Hong Kong - Zhuhai - Macau Bridge (HZMB) Macau Port and enter Macau. After that, you can take taxi from HZMB Macau Port directly to UM campus.
Note: If you take this direct bus, you won't need to go through passport control or enter Hong Kong. Airport staff will collect your checked-in luggage and bring it to you before you board the bus.
II. From Macau airport to UM
When you arrive at Macau Airport, you can take taxi from Airport directly to UM campus.
Remark: Please prepare some cash to pay the taxi fare in Macao (it can be in MOP or HKD)
Hotel address:
澳門大學 N1 聚賢樓
UM Guest House (N1)
地址:澳門氹仔大學大馬路澳門大學，N1 聚賢樓
Address: N1, Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau, China
Notes: The nearest airport is Macau International Airport which is well-connected to major Asian cities but has no direct flights to and from Europe and America. Major airports in the region include Hong Kong International Airport and airports of Shen Zhen, Zhuhai, and Guang Zhou.
Contact:
Mike Hoi
Pei Kuang
Aim:
The aim of the conference is to bring together leading experts from academia, central banks and other policy institutions to present their research findings involving expectations data and modelling of expectations in macroeconomics.
The topics of interest include, but are not limited to:
• Economic agents’ expectation formation and updating of expectations
• The role of expectations for economic decisions
• The effect of monetary, fiscal and other economic policy interventions on economic expectations and decisions
• Implications of expectations formation processes for macroeconomic policy design and communication
• Macroeconomic consequences and policy implications of information frictions