Ariane Salem
I am an Economist at Conseil d'analyse économique. My research interests are in development economics, political economy and economic history.
I explore the institutional determinants of structural change in developing countries. I look at how past institutions can affect the dynamics of development and migration. To empirically investigate this question, I exploit quasi-natural experiments in the colonial setting and rely on first-hand historical data.
I am also interested at how citizens lobby for greener policies in response to environmental degradation, by combining electoral, survey and satellite data.
Working papers
"En Route: The French Colonial Army, Emigration and Economic Development in Morocco", with Awa Ambra Seck Job Market Paper 1 [Draft available upon request]
Between 1830 and 1962, six million Africans living under colonial rule served in the French army. Most were deployed internationally to maintain order or fight French wars. After independence, all were repatriated and granted the right to move to France. We estimate the effect of military deployment on the soldiers’ long-term outcomes, as well as on their communities of origin, using historical data on Moroccan soldiers, and exploiting the arbitrary assignment of troops to international locations. We show that, within a municipality, cohorts with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France were more likely to relocate there after independence, whereas deployment to other locations did not affect emigration. Consistent with the establishment of emigration networks, we find that the effects persist for decades after independence. Furthermore, communities with a higher share of soldiers deployed to France have experienced better economic outcomes, and a shift from the agricultural to the service sector today. These results highlight the role that colonial rule played in shaping emigration networks from the colonies and in contributing to persistent changes in their patterns of economic development.
"The Negative Impacts of Colonization on the Local Population: Evidence from Morocco", Job Market Paper 2 [Draft]
Did colonial farming improve or worsen local welfare? To answer this question, I investigate the health effect of early exposure to French farms in colonial Morocco. If European colonists modernized agriculture in this colony of settlement, thereby increasing total productivity, the extractive colonial production took over resources, crowding out local producers. Using a novel indidividual dataset of Moroccan soldiers enlisted in French Morocco, I estimate the effect of being born in proximity to colonial farms on adult height-per-age, a proxy for early-life conditions. The results derived from a difference-in-difference strategy indicate that cohorts born near colonial farms grew smaller after the arrival of settlers. This adverse effect on health can be explained both by factor and market competition between colonial and local producers. I show that the adverse effect is mostly supported by crowding out of agricultural inputs, i.e. land and water, affecting local agricultural productivity. Investigating long-run effects, I give suggestive evidence of a reversal of the negative health effect and human capital accumulation among post-Independence cohorts, but delay in industrialization and insecurity in agricultural land ownership. These results shed new lights on the colonial determinants of structural change in developing countries.
Academic publications
"Wind of Change: How Climatic Disasters are Reshaping Environmental Opinions", Revue d'Économie Politique, Vol. 132 n°6, 2022, [here]
Each individual in the United States is exposed on average to 9 climatic disasters during their lifetime, with possible effect on political preference formation, in particular for environmental policy. Using data on the universe of hurricanes, floods and severe storms from 1953 to 2014, I show that exposure to disasters is a key determinant of support for environmental public action, and that the effect is lasting over the course of life. A standard deviation of climatic disaster in one’s lifetime increases the probability of expressing a pro- environmental preference by 12% and liberal views by 14% of a standard deviation. I show that the environmental effect is channeled only by direct exposure, whereas the liberal effect by the indirect exposure. A possible interpretation is that individuals are marked deferentially to the environmental or income shock provoked by a climatic disaster conditional on their level of exposure. Investigating heterogenous effects along the partisan lines of respondents reveal that it is mostly Democrats who are affected by the disaster experience, especially those living in Republican States. These results give ground for the growing evidence of polarization of US citizens on environmental issues.
Other publications
"Les TPE-PME françaises face au choc énergétique: les enseignements des données bancaires", Focus CAE n° 104 [here]
with Basile Blanc, Marylou Colombet, Camille Landais & Hélène Paris
"Performance énergétique du logement et consommation d’énergie : les enseignements des données bancaires", Focus CAE n° 103 [here]
with Jeanne Astier, Gabrielle Fack, Julien Fournel & Flavie Maisonneuve
Work in Progress
"Do voters Punish or Reward Deforestation? Evidence from Municipal Elections in Brazil"
What is the electoral cost of permissive deforestation policies for incumbent Brazilian mayors, who face opposite economic and environmental incentives?
"Gentrification and Crime", with Mathieu Couttenier, Giacomo di Giorgi and Luisa Gagliardi
Is the rise in housing price pushing criminality upward?