My research field is macroeconomic applications of time series methods. I am particularly interested in estimating unobserved dynamic states using multivariate models. I am also interested in forecasting applications and US/global/regional business cycle features, inflation, labor market, and policy.

My teaching fields are: Macroeconomics, Money and Banking, International Macroeconomics, Time Series methods, Forecasting. 

Research Profile:

Google Scholar: Arabinda Basistha

Repec: Arabinda Basistha

CV:  PDF 

Refereed journal articles:

1. Why Were Changes in the Federal Funds Rate Smaller in the 1990s? (with Richard Startz), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(3), 339-54, 2004.

2. Estimates of Output Gap from a Forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips Curve. (with Charles Nelson), Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(2), 498-511, 2007.

3. Trend-Cycle Correlation, Drift Break and the Estimation of Trend and Cycle in Canadian GDP, Canadian Journal of Economics, 40(2), 584-606, 2007.

4. Measuring the NAIRU with Improved Uncertainty: A Multiple Indicator-Common Factor Approach. (with Richard Startz), Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), 805-11, 2008.

5. Macroeconomic Cycles and Stock Market’s Reaction to Monetary Policy (with Alexander Kurov), Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 2606-16, 2008.

6. Hours per Capita and Productivity: Evidence from Correlated Unobserved Components Model, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(1), 187-206, 2009.

7. Estimating Earnings Trend from Unobserved Components Model (with Alexander Kurov), Economics Letters, 107, 55-57, 2010.

8. Currency Crises and Output Dynamics (with Sheida Teimouri), Open Economies Review, 26(1), 139-153, 2015.

9. The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Energy Prices (with Alexander Kurov), Journal of Futures Markets, 35(1), 87-103, 2015.

10. The Role of Spatial GDP Spillovers in State-level Okun’s Law (with Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic), Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 10, 353-360, 2017.

11. Volatility Forecasting: The Role of Internet Search Activity and Implied Volatility (with Alexander Kurov and Marketa H. Wolfe), Journal of Risk Model Validation, 14(1), 35-63, 2020.

12. Monetary Shock Measurement and Stock Markets (with Richard Startz), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 54(2-3), 685-706, 2022.

13. Estimation of Short-run Predictive Factor for US Growth using State Employment Data, Journal of Forecasting, 42(1), 34-50, 2023.

14. Measuring the Persistent Global Economic Factor with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data (with Richard Startz), Journal of Forecasting, 43(7), 2860-85, 2024.

Academic proceedings:

1. Foreign Aid and Export performance: A Panel Data Analysis of Developing Countries (with Jonathan Munemo and Subhayu Bandyopadhyay), in Theory and Practice of Foreign Aid, (edited by Sajal Lahiri), Elsevier Science, 2007.

The Conversation articles (not peer reviewed):

1. A hawkish Fed signals further rate hikes and sees a slowing economy – but not recession, July 27, 2022.

2. Americans’ personal savings rate is near an all-time low – an economist explains what it means as a potential recession looms, December 20, 2022.

3. Interest rates may peak soon, March 22, 2023.

Working papers:

1. Estimates of Quarterly and Monthly Episodes of Global Recession: Evidence from a Markov-switching Dynamic Factor Model.  Under review. 

2. The Role of Global Inflation in Estimation of the US Output Gap in the post Bretton Woods era: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models, in preparation.

Teaching experience:

Undergraduate courses:

Principles of Microeconomics, (at University of Washington and at WVU).

Principles of Macroeconomics, (at University of Washington, Wellesley College and at WVU, also as an honors course). Currently teaching.

Intermediate Microeconomics, (at University of Washington and at WVU).

Intermediate Macroeconomics, (at University of Washington and at WVU).

Money and Banking (at WVU). Currently teaching.

Introductory Econometrics (at Wellesley College).

Advanced Econometrics (at Wellesley College).

Graduate courses:

International Macroeconomics, (at WVU).

Monetary Economics I and II, (at WVU).

Macroeconomics I and II, (at WVU). Currently teaching Macroeconomics I.

Macroeconomics, (for MS in Finance, at WVU).

Research Design/Methodology (at WVU).

Reviewer for Journals/Publishers/Grants (most of them multiple times):

B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, EconomiA, Empirical Economics, Economic Journal, Economic Inquiry, Energy Journal, International Journal of Forecasting, Financial Review, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Commodity Markets, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of Futures Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Applied Economics, Open Economies Review, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Econometric Reviews, Economic Modelling, Economics Letters, Economics Bulletin, European Economic Review, Eurasian Business Review, Energy Sources: Part B, Macroeconomic Dynamics, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Pakistan Development Review, McGraw Hill, Wiley-Blackwell, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, National Science Foundation.