António Martins
Lisbon School of Economics & Management
o Ph.D. in Economics
o Teaching Assistant
Ongoing Research Projects
Globalization Channels and Firm Performance*
with L. A. V. Catão, P. de Faria and M. Portela
Abstract: Using a new panel dataset of about 140 thousand Portuguese firms during 2006-2019, we measure the effects of globalization on firm-level performance along four dimensions: ownership of capital, employment of foreign-seasoned managers, and participation in export and import markets. Once at least one of these channels is active, firms are larger, less leveraged, employ better-qualified workers, and pay higher hourly wages. We also uncover a pecking order in the effects of the different channels. In particular, export-market participation has generally larger effects than foreign ownership and import market participation and having foreign-experienced managers. All four channels interact and are often complementary: foreign firms tend to export and import more, whilst foreign ownership in turn boosts exports along the extensive margin, though the marginal gains on size, productivity, and wages of becoming foreign-owned are smaller when the firm is already an exporter. We also find that smaller firms typically stand the most to gain from becoming an exporter or foreign-owned.
This paper was listed on SSRN's Top Ten download list for: PSN: Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) (Globalization) (Topic)
Consumer Credit Without Collateral, Regulation, or Intermediaries*
with F. Correia and A. Waikel
Abstract: Using novel data from an online informal credit market, we investigate how consumer credit unfolds without a financial system. We find borrowers display high rates of default and face high credit prices. A minority of consistently successful lenders gain a disproportionately large and profitable market share, while the average lender realizes losses. High-skill lenders achieve better loan outcomes and provide more lenient loan terms. Loans are more likely to be funded and repaid when acquiring information about borrowers is easier for lenders. These findings highlight the role of intermediaries in consumer credit: they bring skill and internalize information acquisition.
*SSRN discussion paper 4640113
Publications (peer reviewed)
Cross-country I-S correlation
Macro fundamentals and the resurgence of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Europe*
2024 - Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 10022006 - view
Single authored
Abstract: This paper discusses the resurgence of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle after the global financial crisis within the European space. Revisiting the theory of intertemporal choice, this paper suggests that the deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals that favor capital flows from richer to poorer economies can lead investment and savings to correlate across countries even without frictions to capital mobility. I test this hypothesis against a data set of 12 European economies spanning since the inception of the Maastricht treaty and ending immediately before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. I find that the investment-savings correlation is generally low both across and within open economies, aligning with the theoretical stylized fact. However, this can be jeopardized when low-income economies accumulate large net stocks of foreign liabilities coupled with sluggish prospects for productivity growth. Ultimately, if investment and savings are not managed in line with macro fundamentals, foreign investors eventually impose a premium on new liabilities, raising the cost of financing investment with foreign funds and leading the correlation between investment and savings to rise both across and within countries.
Online Financing without FinTech: Evidence from Online Informal Loans during the Pandemic
2022 - Journal of Economics and Business, 106080 - view
with F. Correia and A.Waikel
Abstract: We present the first comprehensive dataset on an online informal micro-lending community. These informal loans are small, short duration and high-cost. Using our unique micro data, and the Covid-19 pandemic as a laboratory, we uncover different types of information contained on loan terms and on the narratives of market participants. First, loan terms reflect the aggregate economic context of borrowers and lenders. Second, narratives among market participants contain additional and timely information about aggregate and individual borrower circumstances. Third, lenders imperfectly screen on both loan terms and narrative information. These findings highlight the role of data in FinTech. Transparency on micro-loans can improve the efficiency of the credit market, democratizing access to finance for borrowers, while protecting lenders.
Other publications
2022 - Crise e Recuperação: Dois anos de Pandemia na Economia Portuguesa - in - Um novo normal? Impactos e lições de dois anos de pandemia em Portugal p.18-110- view
with H. Figueiredo, M. Portela, P. Mazeda Gil, T. Sequeira and G. Andrade
Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos
2021 - Policy paper - Foreign Direct Investment and Global Value Chains in Portugal - in - From "made-in" to" created in": A new paradigm for the Portuguese economy p.235-256 - view
with L. Catão, P. de Faria and M. Portela
Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos