Working papers, keynotes:
Fluctuations in the Treasury General Account and their effect on the Fed's balance sheet, FEDS Note, August 6, 2025
Keynote, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 2025, "Balance Sheet Policy Above the ELB"
The Effect of the Federal Reserve on the Stock Market: Magnitudes, Channels and Shocks (with Benjamin Knox), in progress for the Annual Review of Financial Economics
A Stock Return Decomposition using Observables (with Benjamin Knox), 2024. New version, posted 12/19/2024
Equity Premium Events (with Benjamin Knox, Mehrdad Samadi, Juan Londono), 2024
Reserve Demand, Interest Rate Control, and Quantitative Tightening (with David Lopez-Salido), 2025. This is a new version, posted May 2025
Consumer Credit: Learning Your Customer's Default Risk from What (S)he Buys, 2021, Revise & Resubmit
Information Transmission from the Federal Reserve to the Stock Market: Evidence from Governors’ Calendars (with Adair Morse), 2020
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves (with Robin Greenwood), 2018, Revise & Resubmit
Winner, Swiss Finance Institute Outstanding Paper Award, 2019
The Impact of Labor Income Risk on Educational Choices: Estimates and Implied Risk Aversion, with Helena Skyt Nielsen, first draft, January 2006.
Towards an Explanation of Household Portfolio Choice Heterogeneity: Nonfinancial Income and Participation Cost Structures, NBER Working Paper, 2002 (the main parts of this paper are included in my 2003 NBER Macroeconomics Annual paper)
Household Finance: The Liability Side, 2007 Gerzensee Focus Session
Policy notes:
The Case for Federal Reserve Corporate Bond Purchases, March 22, 2020 (March 23, 2020 Fed announcement included corporate bond purchases via the PMCCF and SMCCF)
Why an MBS-Treasury swap is better policy than the Treasury twist (with Arvind Krishnamurthy), July 24, 2012