Andrew J. Sinclair, Ph.D.
Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance
California Institute of Technology
Email: ajsincla@caltech.edu
Research Areas: Chinese economics, financial intermediation, institutional economics, political economy, macroeconomics, economic history
I am an expert on China's financial system and my research studies how powerful governments shape financial markets, with a focus on commitment, coordination, and the political economy of risk.
China offers some of the most interesting puzzles in economics. Much of economic theory is universal, but many fields, especially finance, have been implicitly built on the assumption of Western institutions such as democracy and the rule of law. In my research I seek to understand how modern China works by studying how people rationally behave and invest under the presence of a large, powerful, and dynamic central government.
I completed my PhD in financial economics at Yale University and I was previously on the faculty at The University of Hong Kong (HKU). My work has been published in top economics journals, including The Economic Journal and the Journal of Economic Theory, and covered in the media by the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and Vox China. I have been invited to present my work on China at many top global institutions, including Yale University, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, BlackRock, and the Hoover Institute at Stanford (YouTube link).
1. Banking on the Confucian Clan: Why China Developed Financial Markets So Late [Paper Link]
Zhiwu Chen, Chicheng Ma, and Andrew Sinclair, The Economic Journal, 2022, 132 (644)
2. Wealth, Endogenous Collateral Quality, and Financial Crises [Paper Link]
Zehao Liu and Andrew Sinclair, Journal of Economic Theory, 2022, 204 (105526)
3. Do Prime Brokers Intermediate Capital? [Paper Link]
Andrew Sinclair, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2023,101004
4. Executive Authority and Implicit Guarantees [SSRN Link]
Andrew Sinclair, 2025
5. The Financial Costs of Industrial Policy Risk [SSRN Link]
Andrew Sinclair and Chuyi Zhang, 2025
6. China's Global Currency: Re-pegging the Hong Kong Dollar [SSRN Link]
Andrew Sinclair, 2025
7. Price Controls and Wealth Redistribution in the Chinese IPO Market [SSRN Link to earlier draft]
Yongning Deng, Andrew Sinclair, and Chuyi Zhang, 2023
8. The State Civilian Granary System and Price Stability, 1741-1856
Andrew Sinclair, 2024
9. Retail Hedge Funds [SSRN Link]
Andrew Sinclair and Chuyi Zhang, 2022
10. Does Portfolio Disclosure Make Money Smarter? [SSRN Link]
Byoung Uk Kang, Andrew Sinclair, and Stig Xenomorph, 2021
11. Understanding China Through Finance
Andrew Sinclair, 2024
I have designed several popular undergraduate and graduate courses at HKU and Caltech, including classes on Chinese finance, hedge funds, and investments. My class "Understanding China Through Finance" (avg. score 94.6%) provides students with a foundation for understanding 21st century China in a global context. My hedge funds class (avg. score 97.2%) builds on my dissertation at Yale, and provides students with the tools of quantitative trading, including modern machine learning techniques. In recognition of my teaching, in 2022 I was awarded the "Faculty Outstanding Teaching Award (Undergraduate Teaching)" by the Faculty of Business and Economics at HKU.