Oil supply shocks and economic growth in the Mediterranean

Abstract. We study how oil supply shocks affect the output growth of selected countries in the Mediterranean region. We focus on the effects of oil supply shocks on economic activity, as measured by real gross value added, for the whole economy, as well as for specific industries. We show that the response of real gross value added growth is negative and often statistically significant for net energy importers, while for net energy exporters it is not distinguishable from zero. This result holds for the aggregate economies, as well as for the selected industries. Moreover, the effects of oil supply shocks increase with the degree of energy dependence in the Mediterranean countries belonging to the European Union. Our results have several policy implications. First, the European Union should encourage projects on the efficient use of energy in the Mediterranean area. Second, European financial markets should promote appropriate financial instruments to stimulate investments in the Mediterranean energy sector. Third, international investors should consider the country-specific reactions to major macroeconomic shocks in the Mediterranean region.