Embedded Files
Welcome to my webpage!
I am a postdoctoral researcher at the Utrecht School of Economics. My research focuses on labor economics, particularly technology adoption, labor market dynamics, income inequality, and economic growth.
I graduated from the University of Porto in 2022. That same year, I was a postdoctoral fellow in the H2020 Project PILLARS—Pathways to Inclusive Labor Markets at UNU-MERIT (Maastricht, NL). I have also worked as a consultant at the Portuguese Competence Centre for Planning, Policy and Foresight in Public Administration (PlanApp) and at Technopolis Group in Amsterdam. During my PhD, I was funded by the Foundation for Science and Technology, and I currently receive financial support from Instituut Gak. In October 2024, my most significant long-term "project" was born, and I was on maternity leave until February 2025.
I am a job market candidate in 2025/2026.
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Till Automation Do Us Part: Firm Productivity and Worker Exit Following Technology Adoption [Job Market Paper] Presented at York University Seminar Series, TASKS Conference, CORA 2025, CONCORDi 2025. [Preliminary version][1-minute pitch, courtesy Instituut Gak] [Slides]
Abstract: Using rich administrative data from Portugal, I examine the effects of software investments and purchases of automation goods on firms and workers. I find that, on average, automating firms adopt “so-so” technologies—technologies that fail to generate productivity gains but reduce employment. Four years after automation adoption, labor productivity declines by 4 to 8 log points and profits fall by about 20 log points, while employment decreases by 8 to 13 log points. I argue that these outcomes are driven by the departure of workers employed in the most productive jobs. In particular, high-wage workers exposed to automation are disproportionately more likely to leave adopting firms relative to comparable workers in the same occupation. I provide evidence that automation induces the exit of workers in the most productive jobs, though not necessarily those with higher individual wage premiums.
Firm Organization and Worker Outcomes: The Role of Occupational Specialization, with Matias Cortes, Diego Dabed and Anna Salomons. Under Review. [Previously circulated as Fissuring Firms and Worker Outcomes, CLEF Working Paper Version]
Abstract: Using matched employer-employee data from Portugal, we show that firms differ starkly in their occupational employment composition, even within detailed industries, with some firms employing workers across a broad range of occupations and others being much more specialized. These differences are robustly predictive of wages: a worker employed in an occupationally-specialized firm earns less than that same worker employed in a less specialized firm. The wage penalty for working in an occupationally-specialized firm is observed across occupations and industries of all skill levels, and is distinct from the penalty associated with working in a firm with fewer organizational layers. Specialization helps account for the role of firms in inequality, as specialization is strongly negatively related to estimated AKM firm fixed effects. Around 50-60% of the wage penalty from specialization is explained by differences in firm productivity. Specialized firms, however, also engage in lower rates of rent-sharing conditional on productivity, accounting for up to one-quarter of the difference in wage premia between high- and low-specialization firms. Finally, we show that being employed in a specialized firm is also associated with worse longer-term career outcomes for workers.Firm-level labor shares and technology-driven occupational changes. Presented at, e.g., the EEA Conference 2022 and the TASKS Conference. [Preliminary version]
Abstract: Technological advances have decreased labor demand for occupations with high routine task content and increased it for occupations that are either cognitively complex or require non-repetitive social interactions. Technology has also been one of the key drivers of labor share dynamics at the aggregate and industry level. My paper investigates whether technology-driven changes in firms' occupational structure impact the labor share at the firm level, and how these changes compete with changes in (i) occupation-specific hourly wages, (ii) firm employment, and (iii) firm value-added. My findings suggest that the observed increase in the firm-level labor share between 2004 and 2019 in Portugal was mainly due to a positive hourly wage growth, particularly among Routine Manual and Non-Routine Manual occupations. I also show that changes in task group employment shares have limited effects on the firm-level labor shares, due to the stabilization of occupational employment shares since 2010. Finally, I show that the aggregate dynamics of the labor share between 2004 and 2019 are driven mainly by changes in firms’ labor share rather than value-added reallocation across the labor share redistribution.
The future of digital automation technologies tasks and skills. A Delphi survey, with Tommaso Ciarli, Rafael Constantino de la Vega and Chiel Scholten. Presented at, e.g., ifo's Summer Institute, EU-SPRI and CONCORDi (2023).
Abstract: In this paper, we combine expertise from thousands of scientists, technologists, business leaders, civil society members, and policymakers to predict which automation technologies will become prevalent by 2030, their expected adoption rates, and their current levels of development. We designed a real-time Delphi platform to allow experts to provide and compare their views. Results show some consensus around some of the most salient technologies, especially in AI, Computing, Data acquisition, and Networking. Experts cover a wider range of technologies in relation to Robots, Data management, Networking, User interfaces and Additive manufacturing. In most cases, experts associate the most relevant emerging technologies with relatively mature ones, but several technologies currently under research and development also score at the top. AI technologies, Remote control are relevant to most industries (General Purpose Technologies), but most technologies are relevant to specific industries. We also find that most technologies are used in information and communication activities and manufacturing, whereas other industries rely on a smaller set of emerging technologies.
Labor share and firm dynamics under endogenous growth and market structure, with Pedro Mazeda Gil. Best PhD paper at the Portuguese Economic Journal Meeting 2019.
Abstract: We explore the impacts of innovation on economic growth, factor income distribution, firm size, and firm and job creation in a growth model where both incumbent and entrant firms engage in R&D and face sector-specific fixed operating costs and specific R&D efficiency. The model ensures the existence of a balanced growth path with transitional dynamics in all key endogenous variables. We calibrate the model using US data and consider two sets of shocks to the modeled economy. The first set consists of temporary productivity shocks that affect incumbents and entrants differently, based on US historical data from WWII. The transition paths after the shocks replicate the downward trend in the labor share and the firm creation rate, as well as the smooth decline in the economic growth rate over the past 60 years. The second set of shocks is framed as permanent industrial policy shocks and allows one to compare the US and the EU strategies to finance R&D. We show that cutting both entrants' and incumbents' R&D fixed costs (the EU strategy) has barely the same effects as cutting entrants' R&D fixed costs only (the US strategy).
Published Papers
Published Papers
Do Technological Advances Reduce the Gender Wage Gap?, with Matias Cortes and Anna Salomons, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Winter 2020, Vol. 36, Issue 4: 903-924. [Published version] [Replication Package] [Minor corrections to Figures and Appendix Tables]
Book chapters
Book chapters
Work Time Reduction: A Critical Analysis of the Main Arguments for Adopting a 4-Day Workweek , with Sofia Cruz, Ana Couto, Jorge Cerdeira, Cristina Parente and Carlos Gonçalves. In Human Resource Management in a Disrupted World (pp. 333-355). Springer, Cham. [Published version]
The Impact of Universities on Regional Competitiveness: A Review of the Main Theoretical and Methodological Approaches, with Aurora Teixeira, Miguel Preto, Gonçalo Brás and Carlos Rodrigues. (Ed.), Examining the Role of Entrepreneurial Universities in Regional Development, 2020 (pp. 67-92), IGI Global. [Published version]
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse