Publications

• Job Creation in Colombia Versus the USA: `Up-or-out Dynamics' Meet `The Life Cycle of Plants' (2022) with Marcela Eslava and John Haltiwanger, Economica, 89(355), 511-539.

• Switching from Payroll Taxes to Corporate Income Taxes: Firms' Employment and Wages after the 2012 Colombian Tax Reform (2017) with Raquel Bernal, Marcela Melendez, and Marcela Eslava, Economía, 18(1), 41-74.

• El ciclo economico y el mercado de trabajo en Colombia: 1984-2014 (2016), with Luis Eduardo Arango, and Felipe Parra, Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 34(81), 206-228

Working Papers

• Misallocation, Innovation, and Growth in a Developing Economy [draft]

Abstract: This paper studies how market distortions shape innovation, selection, and the growth rate of productivity in a developing economy. I use a rich dataset on Colombian manufacturing firms with more than 10 employees, which provides detailed information on productivity, innovation activity, and firm-specific distortions. The data show that more productive firms are more likely to innovate, but they also face higher distortions. To quantify the implications, I develop and calibrate an endogenous growth model in which heterogeneous firms invest in R&D, enter, and exit, and the knowledge frontier grows with the economy-wide flow of innovation. Reducing the correlation between distortions and productivity to the U.S. level raises aggregate TFP by 61% in a static exercise and almost doubles the growth rate, from 1.2% to 2.1% per year, with both stronger selection and R&D contributing. These gains occur with almost no change in the share of innovating firms, as innovation shifts toward more productive firms. Removing all distortions yields a larger static gain but a lower growth rate, because distortions unrelated to productivity spread profits unequally across firms, which raises turnover and R&D effort. The results show that accounting for R&D is key to measuring the cost of distortions, and that the correlation of distortions with productivity, rather than their level, is what slows growth.

• The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Renewable Energy with Tasnia Hussain [draft]

Abstract: Global adoption of renewable energy has increased rapidly since the early 2000s, driven partly by learning-by-doing mechanisms. Despite this progress, the world remains below what is needed to reach net-zero by 2030. This paper examines how the Russia-Ukraine war accelerated Europe's clean energy transition. The European Union relied heavily on Russian natural gas for electricity generation, and the war disrupted this relationship, creating a supply shock. Countries experienced this shock at varying intensities depending on their pre-war import exposure to Russian gas. We exploit variation in pre-war Russian gas dependency and find that more dependent countries transitioned faster post-war compared to less-exposed counterparts. We develop a model featuring learning-by-doing and heterogeneous fossil-fuel dependency to rationalize these findings. Preliminary results show economies accelerate their renewable transition approximately four periods after a permanent supply shock, while highly exposed countries do so up to eight periods earlier due to higher electricity prices, lower fossil-fuel investment returns, and learning-by-doing amplification. Low-exposure countries show minimal response. Crucially, this acceleration only sustains when the shock is permanent, suggesting that learning-by-doing alone cannot generate lasting effects from temporary disruptions.

• Market liberalization and capital misallocation: The Colombian manufacturing experience

Abstract: In this paper, I develop a model to identify the contributions of adjustment costs, production uncertainty, demand uncertainty, and distortions to capital misallocation. Using data from Colombian manufacturing, I calibrate the model to estimate the relative importance of each factor. I further evaluate the impact of a market reform in Colombia by comparing sources of misallocation before and after the reform and exploring possible mechanisms by which the reform influenced misallocation. The results indicate that distortions account for the majority of capital misallocation, with a shift in significance from distortions correlated with productivity and demand to more persistent distortions. Meanwhile, adjustment costs and uncertainty play a diminished role in explaining misallocation.

Work in Progress

• Clean Energy Transitions under Structural Change with Anubha Agarwal and Tasnia Hussain

• PhD in Economics, University of Toronto, Canada - 2025

Committee: Diego Restuccia (supervisor), Murat Celik, Laurent Cavenaile.

• M.A. in Economics, Universidad de los Andes, Colombia - 2018

• B. Sc. in Economics, Universidad del Valle, Colombia - 2015

• Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto, 2019-2024

  • ECO2120: Topics in Growth and Development (Ph.D level)

  • ECO101: Principles of Microeconomics

  • ECO102: Principles of Macroeconomics

  • ECO380: Markets, Competition, and Strategy

  • ECO208: Macroeconomic Theory

  • ECO202: Macroeconomic Theory and Policy

  • ECO375: Applied Econometrics I

• Teaching Assistant, Universidad de los Andes, 2015-2019

  • Advanced Econometrics (Graduate level)

  • Introduction to Macroeconomics

  • Introduction to Microeconomics

  • Regulation and Competition