報告タイトル：「天国と地獄？インド・パンジャーブ州の誇り高き農民の2つの選択肢」

報告タイトル："From the Holy Land to the Homeland: The economic impact of Anime Pilgrimages in Japan"

報告タイトル：How can we account for persistent economic stagnation and security unease in African nations?: A general equilibrium analysis 

報告概要: Many African countries have long endured low economic growth and persistent armed conflicts. Despite discourse of previous studies on potential channels impacting the politico-economic performance, the empirical findings lack consistency and remain controversial. Our study proposes a theoretical framework to systematically shed light on endogenous mechanisms leading to a distinct equilibrium in terms of growth and conflicts. Applying our calibrated model, we illustrate how we can identify key drivers that potentially stimulate growth and provoke political violence.報告概要

報告タイトル：The butterfly effect: consequences of China’s changing economy for Southeast Asian development

報告概要：In this century, China has accumulated human capital and become more specialized in skill-intensive production and export, while also expanding domestic backward linkages in its manufacturing supply chain at the expense of imports. Due to the size of China’s economy and its prominence in Asian trade, these changes inevitably and exogenously alter the comparative advantage of its regional trading partners. We build a 30-country, 40-sector Ricardian general equilibrium model of global trade and perform counterfactual experiments aimed at assessing the effects of changes in China on trade, production and factor returns in Southeast Asian countries. The model features skilled and unskilled labor as primary inputs as well as trade in intermediate goods. Simulation results suggest that China’s human capital investments and inward-looking industrial policies may cause Southeast Asia’s developing economies to lose global export shares in more skill-intensive manufacturing sectors and to be pushed toward resource-based exports. Their skill premia may also fall, reducing incentives to invest in a more skilled labor force. In the absence of policy responses, these trends might dim long-run development prospects.

報告概要

報告タイトル：The Consequences of Hometown Regiment What Happened in Hometown When the Soldiers Never Returned?

報告概要：Sometimes, war results in a large gender imbalance in certain cohorts and areas that changes the path of economic development. However, there is ambiguity around this notion because the market economy has a strong restoring force. This study contributes to the existing literature by presenting the Japanese experience during the Second World War. Japan lost approximately 2 million soldiers during 1938-1945. Furthermore, the loss of young males concentrated in certain cohorts of certain geographical areas owing to hometown regiment system. By exploiting the variation of changes in gender balance cohort-by-prefecture, we examined the effect of the loss of young males on the post-war industrial structure. We observed that the reduction in the gender ratio may have led to slower industrialization, although to a limited extent quantitatively. 

報告タイトル：Why is Inward FDI in Japan so Low? An Insight from Machine Learning

報告概要：Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in Japan is extremely low compared with other countries. In 2020, the ratio of inward FDI to GDP in Japan was 4.9 percent,　which is ranked 198th of 201 countries. Is the pattern of inward FDI in Japan so different from that in other countries? Why is inward FDI in Japan so low? In this paper, we employ a machine learning (ML) method to answer these questions, building upon the gravity model of bilateral FDI. Our main findings are twofold. First, the pattern of inward FDI in Japan is not so different from that in other countries, once we select the control variables using the ML method. Second, inward FDI in Japan is low because Japan has an aging and declining population, huge government budget deficits, and uses a language very different from English. Noting that these factors cannot be changed in the short term, policy reforms should be discussed from the longer-term perspective to increase inward FDI in Japan.

報告タイトル：Origin of Goods and the Distributional Effects of Trade Liberalization

報告概要：This paper introduces origin of goods in household welfare to estimate consumer gains from trade liberalization. We use a unique dataset of household expenditure on goods by origin in Cambodia and show that rich households are more likely than poor households to consume import goods. We estimate tariff pass-through rates across origins and find that trade liberalization reduces a price for import goods more than for domestically produced goods, with little influence on home-produced goods. The first-order impacts of tariff reduction between 2004 and 2019 show a larger welfare gain for richer households; households at the 80-90 income percentile gain more than those at the 0-10 percentile by 40%. We calculate alternative welfare measures with varying assumptions on origins and demonstrate that disaggregating origins can significantly magnify a gap in the welfare impacts between rich and poor.