Midway: 1942

The Japanese have been intercepting U.S. radio communications this year. The U.S. has also been intercepting Japanese communications.

In early 1942, we intercepted a message from the Japanese that they intended to attack location AF (their secret label for the place).

Suspecting AF might be Midway Island, the Americans sent a phony, easily interceptable message stating that Midway was running short on water. Sure enough, the Japanese soon after sent a message among themselves bragging that they discovered that AF is short on water. This was strong evidence that AF was Midway.

However, it is an ancient military trick to use counter-intelligence—a trick to make your enemy think they have discovered your secrets, when in fact the “secret” you discovered is really a decoy to make you believe something wrong.

If the Japanese actually intend to attack Midway, you can deliver a huge blow to them by sending your fleet to Midway Island to be there when they arrive.

If they are playing a trick, and they do not intend to attack Midway, but you send your fleet to Midway, then you leave California susceptible to a naval attack. No one wants that.