ABSTRACT: How much do the poor spend on food as their income increases? We estimate a key economic parameter---the income elasticity of food expenditures---using data from five randomized evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs: two in Mexico and one in each of Nicaragua, the Philippines, and Uganda. These transfers provided routine, exogenous increases of 12 to 23 percent of baseline income for at least a year to recipients at or below the global poverty line. Using pooled ordinary least squares and Bayesian hierarchical models, we first show that expenditures on all food categories increase with income. But even among some of the poorest people in the world, all of whom are experiencing high hunger levels, our estimate of the income elasticity for food is 0.04, i.e., much smaller than many published estimates that rely either on cross-sectional variation or which study responses to large income shocks. Next, we use our data to run the first credible test of Bennett's Law---the empirical regularity whereby, for poor households, income increases are associated with (i) shifting spending from coarse to fine staples, and then (ii) spending more on protein than staples---which we find partial support for. While income increases lead consumers to spend a declining share of their income on food and to substitute fine grains for coarse grains and protein for staples, the estimated shifts are smaller than previous estimates. Quantifying how small, routine income changes affect food demand in low- and middle-income countries can inform the policy discourse on poverty reduction, nutrition, and social protection, as well as the debate on the impact of economic growth on global carbon emission patterns.

ABSTRACT: Under what conditions do commodity booms lead to industrialization? We study this question in the context of Brazil in the 19th and early 20th centuries, when the region of São Paulo experienced a coffee boom together with the formation of its first industrial cluster. We digitize a host of new data on sectoral employment; agricultural, textile, and manufacturing censuses; trade flows (internal and external), and railroad investments for 1872-1950. The data show that regions with higher coffee suitability experienced slower manufacturing growth, while regions in proximity to those where coffee was booming experienced substantial manufacturing growth. A model disciplined by these correlations attributes more than half of São Paulo's industrialization to the coffee boom.

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ABSTRACT: This paper examines how education and local context shape migration trajectories following an initial internal move. We develop a dynamic framework in which migration is modeled as a sequential decision process, where individuals accumulate location-specific adaptation and relational capital that influence subsequent mobility choices. The model is estimated using a discrete-time competing-risks approach applied to longitudinal administrative data tracking young individuals who moved from Southern to Northern Italy between 2011 and 2014. The results reveal a strong educational sorting of migration trajectories. Highly educated individuals are significantly more likely to undertake onward international migration and substantially less likely to return to the South, whereas lower-educated migrants display the opposite pattern. Importantly, the effect of education depends on the context in which adaptation takes place. Urban destinations in the North significantly increase the likelihood that highly educated migrants use internal migration as a stepping stone toward international mobility, while this effect is much weaker in non-urban areas. These findings suggest that internal migration does not necessarily mitigate regional brain drain. Instead, it may reinforce it by facilitating subsequent international migration among highly educated individuals.

ABSTRACT: This paper studies how news format and access to additional information affect individuals’ ability to detect fake news. We conduct a large-scale online survey experiment on a representative sample of the Italian adult population, implementing a 2×2 design that varies whether news is presented in a short, sensationalistic or a long, descriptive format, and whether respondents can request additional neutral information before making a judgment.

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