Housing Supply and Gentrification in Climate Havens

Housing Supply and Gentrification in Climate Havens

  Ann Seigfried, Master of Urban and Regional Planning 

Published August 22, 2025  

Introduction

Due to foreseen impacts of climate change, life in beloved locations has become increasingly tenuous. Extreme weather events and natural disasters are becoming all too common, with coastal and southern communities facing the worst. In the aftermath of such events, people are often left with two options rebuild or relocate (Binder et al., 2015; Tempus, 2016). 

Receiving communities are locations where people may relocate in response to coastal hazards and climate impacts; they can be located nearby, far enough from disaster, or in a different jurisdiction altogether (Li & Spidalieri, 2021). Many displaced folk are expected to move to “climate destinations,” or cities with more manageable climate impacts. Climate destinations typically have ready access to a freshwater supply, high vacancy rates, and abundant affordable housing. Other preferred characteristics include cities with a high infrastructural capacity, such as post-industrial cities, and those that express a desire to grow (Marandi & Main, 2021, p. 472). 

As recent as “2018, more than 16 million people were displaced by weather-related disasters globally, 1.2 million of whom lived in the USA” (Marandi & Main, 2021, p. 465)). By 2023, the US population displaced by natural disasters had grown to over 3.2 million; it’s imperative to recognize this population will grow if societal operations continue as usual (2023). As stated, not every household can or will move back home, many will seek a new home in a location that lacks yearly disasters (Katz, 2021; Simon, 2024). Cities such as Duluth, Minnesota; Buffalo, New York; Ann Arbor, Michigan; Burlington, Vermont; and Madison, Wisconsin, are reported to have favorable geography relative to the changing climate (Marandi & Main, 2021, p. 472). Shortly before penning this paper, Asheville, North Carolina was considered a climate haven, Hurricane Helene has proven that false, the unpredicted damage resulted in a litany of media coverage on this topic (Simon, 2024).

In 2021 climate migration scholars Marandi & Main claimed, “the climate destination has not been empirically defined in the literature, nor have many cities taken serious action to attract and receive new, climate-impacted residents,” though this narrative has changed (Marandi & Main, 2021). Buffalo and Duluth have stood out since they were referred to as “safe havens,” in a 2018 Guardian article featuring climate adaptation scholar, Dr. Jesse Keenan (Marandi & Main, 2021, p. 472; Milman, 2018). These cities have had a strong response to the coverage, In 2019 Buffalo Mayor, Byron W. Brown referred to his city as a “climate refuge,”  and in 2021 Duluth was branded as “climate-proof Duluth,” by the same Dr. Keenan (Pierre-Louis, 2019). While the post-industrial cities lining the Great Lakes are rife with advantages, they have infrastructural hurdles to address if they’re to successfully support a population boom in the coming years (Clark et al., 2022, p. 14).

While climate change is central to this conversation, the focus will remain on climate havens and their preparation for population growth; an influx of residents fleeing climate disasters is a heavy burden on an unprepared receiving location. If climate havens do not have an adequate housing supply, a population boom could trigger great rates of displacement among incumbent residents through increased housing costs. Climate migration creates the perfect set of circumstances for low-income residents to be displaced through economic means by in-movers and other revitalization efforts, this is called gentrification (Zuk et al., 2018, p. 32). Discussions surrounding climate havens and their gentrification tend to focus on an early article investigating Miami, Florida’s shifting real estate landscape, authors claim climate gentrification as a theory is based on the fact climate change will make some property more or less valuable, by virtue of its utility to urban processes (Keenan et al., 2018, p. 2). Knowing this, there are serious implications in how climate migrants handle their situation, it’s up to receiving communities to be prepared so as not to allow double-displacement. 

Case Studies

Vulnerability assessments have been conducted in both Duluth and Buffalo, though the University of Minnesota-Duluth went further in creating their report, Interviews with Stakeholders: The Potential Social, Environmental, and Economic Impacts on Duluth, Minnesota, as a Climate Refuge; reports such as these are arguably far more insightful than academic literature and other reports for their insight into the lived experiences of residents. Most notable in these documents was the focus on addressing existing concerns, like “housing and racial and socioeconomic equity” (Haynes et al., 2022, p. 4). Duluth residents’ concerns are not unfounded, they were echoed in Erie County’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment, which noted the city's history of gentrification and suggested this could be a growing issue as population growth pushes up property values (Clark et al., 2022, pp. 14–15). What follows is an analysis of existing reports by the two climate havens that have prepared the most.

Duluth and Buffalo are still in the early stages of planning as a climate haven, neither city has established robust policies on climate gentrification or its economic impacts, instead, they seem to be building up to that, taking action to remediate their aging infrastructure and produce vulnerability reports such as these (City of Duluth, 2024; Climate Action & Adaptation | Buffalo, NY, n.d.; Greater Buffalo-Niagara Regional Transportation & Council, n.d.; Haynes et al., 2022, p. 7). By way of conducting climate vulnerability assessments municipalities are made aware of the demographics and geography of those who’ll be most impacted, which enables the city to address the most vulnerable populations, and ultimately, “ensure the greatest impact with limited resources,” what Duluth’s Population Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Adaptation Framework calls a “no regrets strategy” (Minnesota Pollution Control Agency & Pale Blue Dot LLC, 2018, p. 11.2). Framing “no regrets” this way comes with the benefit they can be justified by “economic, social, and environmental perspectives whether natural hazard events or climate change hazards take place or not,” albeit, Duluth has been subject to these hazards already (City of Duluth, 2024; Minnesota Pollution Control Agency & Pale Blue Dot LLC, 2018). Regardless, this strategy could also soften some stakeholders' unease if they believe equitable policies such as these, that serve them too, are a net negative (Minnesota Pollution Control Agency & Pale Blue Dot LLC, 2018, p. 11.2).

While Duluth’s vulnerability assessment is strong for its focus on equity, Buffalo’s strength comes from its outright acknowledgment of climate gentrification and its negative outcomes (Clark et al., 2022, p. 44). In 2017 Buffalo had already received approximately 10,000 new resident climate migrants from Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria, and by 2020 Buffalo had some of the fastest-rising home values in the country, this is likely only a taste of what’s to come (Clark et al., 2022, pp. 14–15; Marandi & Main, 2021, p. 472). Additionally, Buffalo’s vulnerability assessment speaks to the strain humans have put on their local environment for decades and how this would only be exacerbated by such an influx in population, an ironic twist while searching for respite from climate change impacts. This situation calls for more than a focus on housing and green infrastructure upgrades, rather a move toward wholistic environmental policies, more akin to stewardship (Clark et al., 2022, pp. 14, 44).

Policy Options 

Gentrification is not a new area of study in housing policy, the concept has existed for ages, in this case, the only thing new is what pushed the in-movers to move. Knowing this, researchers and policymakers can draw upon past research and apply it to contemporary problems. Policies for mitigating climate gentrification in these two cities focus on maintaining affordable units and increasing the number of affordable and market-rate units. Policy recommendations are as follows… 1) Preserve Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing, or older housing stock that has filtered down to, or maintained an affordable price. 2) Upzone, to allow infill development at a higher density to alleviate supply-side demand. 3) Consider enacting Inclusionary Zoning policies that guarantee affordable units are included in new developments and available on the market.

Approximately three-quarters of Americans in affordable housing live in unsubsidized, private-market affordable units called Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing, or NOAH (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2024, p. 12). Preserving these units is necessary to ensure the prevalence of affordable housing in a deficient housing market. A prime characteristic of NOAH tends to be its advanced age, which lends to its affordability but increases its risk of falling off the market. Following the logic of a municipal budget, the costs of new construction tend to exceed that of preservation, making preservation of NOAH a worthwhile investment. Investing in NOAH could look like enfranchising incumbent residents with the means to do so through neighborhood stabilization strategies and housing preservation funds or grants (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2024, pp. 2–3). Allowing incumbent residents to reap the benefits of a stronger economy through increased land values would save (typically) poor folk from further disenfranchisement through their loss of housing stability. (Zuk et al., 2018, p. 32). 

Key to meeting an increased demand for housing and preventing displacement is an increase in supply (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2024, p. 10). It’s well known among housing scholars how housing supply has lagged behind demand in recent decades, this is often chalked up to a generic combination of reasons, what some call the “5 L’s,” lots/land, law (zoning), lending, labor, and lumber (The State of Housing 2023, 2023, p. 2). To curb sprawl and mitigate environmental impact, upzoning should be done to promote dense infill development, rather than “replacing older and lower quality housing stock in areas highly favored by the market,” as that would, “effectively decreas[e] housing supply for lower-income households in desirable areas,” and cause direct displacement of whoever lived there. That’s gentrification! (Rodríguez-Pose & Storper, 2020, p. 240) 

The key to enforcing upzoning that serves the community is restricting development to uninhabited and empty lots. Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing should not be replaced unless necessary, these structures are an invaluable housing resource for those who need affordable housing to survive. It’s suggested new units won’t filter down the market the same way NOAH has, calling for a mechanism where affordable units are included in market-rate developments through subsidies and incentives (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2024, p. 31; Rodríguez-Pose & Storper, 2020, p. 240). Inclusionary Zoning policies require developers to set aside a portion of their project for individuals or families below a certain income threshold, in return the developer is often provided an incentive, usually a density bonus (Lerman, 2006, p. 385). Zoning policies like this encourage densely built multi-unit developments and supply low-income folk a place to call home, not to mention, dense construction is a building block in climate resilience - if feasible, this policy is quite reminiscent of those no-regret strategies mentioned earlier.

The literature on Inclusionary Zoning highlights the indefinite benefits and consequences of the policy. Inclusionary Zoning policies are customized to fit its host cities, resulting in a diverse set of policy impacts that have been difficult to analyze. Evidence supports Inclusionary Zonings' ability to generate multi-family housing, at the cost of deterring single-family development (Mukhija et al., 2015). This outcome isn’t unreasonable, especially if a city is looking to cultivate a diverse housing portfolio inclusionary of dense renter and owner-occupied dwellings, such as duplexes and townhomes. This being said, authors note tailored policies are more likely to produce positive outcomes in their unique environment (Mukhija et al., 2015, p. 14). Inclusionary zoning policies work well together with upzoning and policies that preserve NOAH, especially if the goal is to foster communities resilient to displacement. Some NOAH is bound to fall off the market, structures don't last forever, but if the zoning code allows for more dense development that one unit could turn into many more. Further, if inclusionary zoning is installed, that affordable unit won't be totally lost. In fact, more affordable units could enter the market through dense inclusionary developments, so long as policies are crafted for that purpose. Increased housing availability throughout the market goes to serve everyone, by relieving demand prices should go down, increasing accessibility and affordability across the board. 

Conclusion

 No matter where a city is located, it should start deploying climate-smart strategies. Climate change impacts are widespread and will continue to grow so long as vast action isn’t taken. Asheville wasn’t projected to face the devastation it did at the hands of Hurricane Helene, yet it did, that’s a lesson to learn from. The struggles faced by vulnerable and receiving cities will become ever more apparent as time marches on.

A few cities stand out in their effort to attract climate migrants, in these early stages they should look to going beyond assessments and toward policymaking. The policies outlined in this paper are offered up for consideration to receiving cities. The term “no-regret solution” is particularly valuable, climate-related impacts will not, and have historically not spread evenly across the population; past histories are embedded in our environment and cultures, planners and policymakers must remain mindful of their role as public servants. 

References 

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