We will create a modelling system for the Chesapeake Bay and Watershed that represents human activities such as transportation, land use and land cover change, and their impacts on water quality, including the feedback from impaired water quality that triggers regulatory systems.
Research Questions
Impacts of different future trajectories and climate change on the environment and humans.
1. How do different future trajectories impact the environment? Specifically, how will they impact:
a. forest and farmland conversion?
b. land use patterns?
c. water quality?
d. the likelihood that TMDL allocations will be met/violated?
2. How do different future trajectories impact humans? Specifically, how will they impact:
a. human population growth and distribution?
b. household relocation?
c. traffic patterns and congestion?
d. policy development and implementation?
3. What is the added influence of climate change on water quality and the likelihood that TMDL allocations will be met under climate change for each future trajectory?
4. How will climate change impact human policy development and implementation under different future trajectories, and if future scenarios are included in planning will it influence policymaking?
5. Will implementation of BMPs be sufficient to meet TMDL allocations under all future trajectories or, in some cases, will more substantial measures, such as changes in land development and transportation policies, be necessary?
Impacts of policy implementation on the environment and humans and vice versa.
6. How does policy-making and degree of implementation affect changes in water quality relative to other drivers like economic development, population growth, and climate change?
7. Are there feedbacks between policy and other drivers that would amplify or dampen their effects on water quality? Specifically, does a change in:
a. land-use alter the likelihood that a TMDL allocation will be met?
b. economic circumstances alter the likelihood that a TMDL allocation will be met?
c. the severity of the environmental quality problem (e.g., due to climate change or bad environmental policy) alter the likelihood that a TMDL allocation will be met?
8. How do mismatches in spatial scale between water quality drivers and groups benefiting from improved water quality affect policy implementation and water quality in the Bay watershed? How does:
a. proximity to the Bay affect policy implementation?
b. voluntary vs. involuntary participation affect policy implementation?
c. institutional collaboration affect policy implementation (e.g., do past collaborations predict similar mitigative actions, do adjacent regions adopt policies similar to their neighbors)?
9. How do mismatches in temporal scale of policymaking compared with environmental remediation affect
policy implementation and water quality in the Bay watershed?
a. How does slow change in the environment (e.g., climate change) or the environmental response (e.g., slow recovery) vs. fast change (e.g., a crisis event or tipping point) affect policy implementation?
10. Where are the best leverage points to improve future implementation of the TMDL or other policies?
Contact rhood at umces dot edu to get more information on the project