Publications and Working Papers
New!
Principios de Economía joint with Gabriela Ertola-Navajas. 2022. Slides and text downloadable at www.principiosdeeconomia.com
Now also a version for Uruguay with Jorge Ponce also downloadable at www.principiosdeeconomia.com
Exchange Rate Regimes 20 years later Now covering 1974-2022
Current Working Papers & Other Documents
Permanent and Transitory Monetary Shocks around the World, Red Nie WP No. 275, New version June 2024, joint with Javier Garcia Cicco and Patricio Goldstein.
Banks or Fintechs? A Roadmap to Regulation, Working Paper Universidad de San Andres, joint with Francisco Jesus Guerrero Lopez, Paula Margaretic y Lucia Quesada. February 2024.
A Note on the Inflation Effect of Central Bank Liabilities, October 2023.
Scaling Partnerships to Activate Idle Community Land in South Africa, November 2022, joint with Bailey Klinger and Ivan Ordoñez
What is South Africa´s Crop Potential?, Mimeo, February 2023, joint with Bailey Klinger and Ivan Ordoñez. Python computation codes available here
A Balance Sheet Model of Fiscal Policy in Namibia, April 2022, REDNIE No. 136, joint with Nicolás der Meguerditchian
Macroeconomic risks after a decade of microeconomic turbulence (South Africa 2007-2020), UN Wider Working Paper 3/2022. January 2022, joint with Ricardo Hausmann, Patricio Goldstein, Frank Muci and Douglas Barrios.
Do we need to rethink Debt Policy in Latam? UNDP LAC C19 PDS No. 23. (versión en Español es Necesitamos repensar la política de deuda en Latinoamérica? UNDP LAC C19 PDS No. 23). November 2020.
A Practitioner’s Guide to Efficiency and Competition Policies in Banking Based on Argentina’s experience 2015-2019 Working Paper No. 142, Universidad de San Andres, June 2020 joint with Horacio Liendo.
Papers in Refereed Journals
Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes The Prevalence of Floats, forthcoming IMF Economic Review. Formerly Red Nie WP No. 182, New version June 2024, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Search, Transport Costs, and Labor Markets in South Africa, South African Journal of Economics, 2024, joint with Kishan Shah.
The Great Dilution: The Global Effect of the US Inflation Shock on Sovereign Debt, IMF Economic Review, 2023, October, joint with Gautam Nair. Previously The Distributive Effects of the US Inflation Shock, Harvard Kennedy School, WP RWP22-009, August 2022.
A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Sustainability, Fiscal Studies, Vol 44, pp 61-84, February 2023, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati. Replication code. Data base for replication code.
Does it matter how Central Banks accumulate reserves? Evidence from Sovereign Spreads, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 140 January 2023 (previously NBER Working Paper 28973), joint with Cesar Sosa Padilla.
Cepo para principiantes, Desarrollo Económico, Vol 61, No. 234, pp 101-124. December 2021, joint with Santiago Mosquera.
Should we hibernate in a Lockdown?, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 2023-2033., August 2020. (A non technical summary was published in VOX EU Thoughts from a Total Lockdown)
Macri´s Macro: The Elusive Path to Stability and Growth, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall Issue, 2019, pp. 339-411. (A review in The Economist).
An estimation of CPI biases, in Argentina 1985-2005 and its implication of real income growth and income distribution, Latin American Economic Review, Vol. 27, 2018, joint with Pablo Gluzmann.
Fear of Appreciation, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 101, issue C, pp. 233-247, 2013, joint with Pablo Gluzmann and Eduardo Levy Yeyati
Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Economic Growth: Diaz Alejandro (1965) Revisited, Economic Letters, Vol. 117, No. 3, pp. 666- 672, 2012, joint with Pablo Gluzmann and Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes, European Economic Review, Vol. 54, No. 5 pp. 659- 677, July 2010, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati e Iliana Reggio.
The Law and Economics of Sovereign Debt, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 47 No. 3 ,September 2009, joint with Ugo Panizza and Jeromin Zettelmeyer,.
Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa, Journal of African Economies, Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 765-793. November 2008, joint with Stan Du Plessis y Ben Smit.
South Africa Macroeconomic Challenges after a Decade of Success, Economics of Transition, Vol. 16 No. 4, pp.639-677, October 2008, joint with Jeffrey Frankel and Ben Smit.
Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Commodity-based Economy, Economics of Transition, Vol. 16 No. 4, pp. 679-713, October 2008, joint with Jeffrey Frankel and Ben Smit.
Comment to “Oil Production in Latin America” by Manzano, O. and F. Monaldi, Economia, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 99-101, Fall 2008.
Haircuts: Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 27, No. 5, pp. 780-805, September 2008, joint with Jeromin Zettelmeyer.
The growing current account surpluses in East Asia: the effect of dark matter assets, International Economic Journal, Vol. 22, Issue 2. pp. 141-161, June 2008, joint with Ricardo Hausmann and Maya Horii.
The Impact of Privatization on the Earnings of Restructured Workers, Journal of Labor Research, Vol. 29, No.2, pp 162-176, 2008, joint with Sebastián Galiani.
Estimating SARB´s Policy Reaction Rule, South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 75 No. 4, December 2007, pp. 1-22, joint with Alberto Ortiz.
The cyclicality of monetary and fiscal policy in South Africa since 1994, South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 75, No. 3, pp. 391-411, September 2007, joint with n Stan Du Plessis and Ben Smit.
Comment to “Europe and Global Imbalances” by Philip Lane and Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti, Economic Policy, Vol. 22, Issue 51, pp. 560-565, July 2007.
The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations and its Implications on Global Imbalances, Economic Policy, Vol. 22, Issue 51, pp. 469-518, July 2007, joint with Ricardo Hausmann.
Creditors Losses versus Debt Relief: Results from a Decade of Sovereign Debt Crises, Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol 5, Issue 2-3,pp 343-351, April-May 2007, joint with Jeronim Zettelmeyer.
The Valuation of Hidden Assets in Foreign Transactions: Why “Dark Matter” matters, Business Economics, pp. 29-35, January, 2007, joint with Ricardo Hausmann.
Can dark matter prevent a big bang?, International Finance, Vol. 9, Issue 2, pp. 223-240, August 2006, joint with Ricardo Hausmann.
Fiscal Federalism and Procyclical Spending: The Cases of Argentina and Brazil,, Economica, Vol. VII, No. 2, pp. 315-332, 2006, joint with Rogerio Werneck.
Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds vs. Words, European Economic Review, Vol. 49, pp. 1603-1635, 2005, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
Tools for the Analysis of Debt Problems Journal of Reconstructing Finance, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 201-203, 2004.
On the Consequences of Sudden Stops, Economia, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 171-214, Spring 2004, joint with Pablo Guidotti and Agustin Villar.
¿Por qué crecen menos los regímenes de tipo de cambio fijo? El efecto de los suddenstops, Cuadernos de Economía, Año 40, No. 121, pp. 546-655, Diciembre 2003.
To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes, American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 4, September 2003, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
A de facto Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Methodological Note, American Economic Review, Vol. 93, No. 4, September 2003, (posted at http://www.aeaweb.org/), joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 47, pp. 62-98. 2001, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
Banking Regulation and Competition with Product Differentiation, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 63, pp. 85-111, 2000, joint with Ernesto Schargrodsky,.
Is EMU a Blue-Print for Latin America? Cuadernos de Economía, Año 37, No. 110, pp. 63-99, Abril 2000.
Implications of the Euro for Latin American Banking and Financial Sectors,. Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 53-81, 2000, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati.
Crazy Explanations of the International Business Cycle, International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 111-133, February 1998, joint with Jang- Tin Guo.
La privatización de reservas en el sector hidrocarburífero: el caso de Argentina, Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 13, No. 1, June, pp. 75-115, 1998, joint with Nicolas Gadano.
La Experiencia Argentina con Flujos de Capital en los Noventa, Cuadernos de Economía, Año 34, No. 103, pp. 277-308, December 1997, joint with Joshua Coval.
Financial Markets and Inflation under Imperfect Information Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 54. No. 1, pp. 149-168, October 1997, joint with José De Gregorio. Also published in Mauricio Cárdenas and Sebastián Edwards (eds.) Inflación Estabilización y Política Cambiaria en América Latina, Colombia: TM Editores, January, 1997.
Understanding the Welfare Implications of Currency Substitution, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 21, pp. 391-416, February 1997.
Recurrent High Inflation and Stabilization: A Dynamic Game, International Economic Review, Vol. 37, No. 4, pp. 981-996, November, 1996, joint with Guillermo Mondino and Mariano Tommasi.
The Feasibility of Low Inflation: Theory with an Application to the Argentine Case Policy Reform, Vol.1, pp. 47-73, 1996, joint with Ricardo López Murphy.
Endogenous Learning and Trade Policy, Economic Letters, Vol. 49, pp. 429-433, 1995.
Distributional Conflict, Financial Adaptation and Delayed Stabilization, Economics & Politics, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 257-278.November, 1994, joint with Raúl Labán.
Fiscal Conservatism as a Response to the Debt Crises, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 45, November, 1994, joint with Raúl Labán.
Las Políticas Fiscales en Economías con Restricciones Financieras, El Trimestre Económico. Vol. LXI, No. 3, pp. 379-408, July-September 1994. (Winner of the Cosio Villegas Prize for best article published that year in the journal).
Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 26, No. 3, Part 1, pp. 377-395, August 1994.
The Distribution of Political Power, the Costs of Rent Seeking and Economic Growth, Economic Inquiry, Vol XXXII, No. 2, pp. 236-248. April 1994, joint with Mariano Tommasi.
Currency Substitution and the Regressivity of Inflationary Taxation, Revista de Análisis Económico, Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 177-192, 1992.
Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 2, pp. 1-84, 1990, joint with Rudiger Dornbusch and Holger Wolf.
Explicando las Fluctuaciones del Producto en la Argentina, Económica, Vol. XXXV, No. 1-2, pp. 101- 152, 1989.
Papers in Book Chapters & Other
Good results are the best guarantee of Central Bank independence, 2021, in Latin America: The Post Pandemic Decade. Conversations with 16 economists, Levy Yeyati E. and I. Goldfajn (eds.) Vox Eu, pp 49-56. December 2021.
¿Cómo ahorrar en Argentina? Foco Económico, November 2020, joint with Santiago Mosquera.
El déficit fiscal en los últimos 10 años, Indicadores de Coyuntura, No. 625, November 2020, pp . 42-48. A previous version was published in Foco Económico, August, 2020, joint with Santiago Mosquera.
Una nueva serie de salarios reales para Argentina, Foco Económico, July 2020, joint with Santiago Mosquera. [Datos con Salarios reales Argentina 1980-2020]
Reserve management a Governor ́s eye view, HSBC Reserve Management Trends, 2019, pp. 109- 120. Central Banking Publications.
The effect of Monetary and Exchange Rate policies for development in Rodrik, D. y Rosenzweig Handbook of Development Economics IV, joint with Eduardo Levy Yeyati. Volume 54, Issue 5, July 2010, pp. 659–677.
Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?, in Cavallo, E. and A. Izquierdo Dealing with an International Credit Crunch: Policy Responses to Sudden Stops, Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2009, pp. 23-74, joint with Alberto Ortiz, Pablo Ottonello, and Ernesto Talvi.
Currency Boards, in New Palgrave Second Edition, Stephen Durlauf and Lawrence Blume (eds.), Palgrave MacMillan, 2008.
From surpluses to deficits: the effect of dark matter on Latin America, Revista Globalización, Competitividad y Gobernabilidad, Vol 1, No. 1, pp. 48-64, december 2007, joint with Ricardo Hausmann.
Una justificación de los impuestos distorsivos, Indicadores de Coyuntura, No. 464, pp. 6-9, 2006.
Defaults Episodes in the 1990s: What have we learned? in Aizenman, Joshua y Brian Pinto (eds.) Managing Economic Volatility and Crises, Cambridge University Press, pp. 471-519, 2005, joint with Punam Chuhan.
Macroeconomic Coordination and Monetary Unions in an N-country World: Do all Roads Lead to Rome? in Estevadeordal, Antoni, Dani Rodrik, Alan Taylor and Andres Velasco (eds.) Integrating the Americas: FTAA and Beyond, Harvard University Press, pp. 227-256, 2004, joint with Andrew Powell.
The Benefits and Costs of Privatization in Argentina: A Microeconomic Analysis in Chong, Alberto and Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes (eds.) Privatization in Latin America, Stanford University Press, pp. 67-116, joint with Sebastián Galiani, Paul Gertler and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
Dollarization: A Primer in Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo and Federico Sturzenegger (eds.) Dollarization, Debates and Policy Alternatives, pp. 1-52, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003, joint with Eduardo Levy-Yeyati.
Dollarization: The Link between Devaluation and Default Risk in Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo and Federico Sturzenegger (eds.) Dollarization, Debates and Policy Alternatives, pp. 201-236, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003, joint with Andrew Powell.
Comment to “Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises? by Kristen Forbes, in Edwards, Sebastian y Jeffrey Frankel (eds.) Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, University of Chicago, pp. 124-128, 2002.
Argentina's Experience with Capital Flows during the 1990s in Larrain, Felipe (ed.) Capital Flows, Capital Controls and Currency Crises, Latin America in the 1990s, University of Michigan Press, pp. 103-142, 2000.
Los Resultados de la Integración en el Mercosur, in Carrera, Jorge and Federico Sturzenegger (eds.) Coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas en el Mercosur, Buenos Aires: Fondo de Cultura Económica, joint with Jorge Carrera, 2000.
Las Perspectivas de la Coordinación Macroeconómica, in Carrera, Jorge and Federico Sturzenegger (eds.) Coordinación de políticas macroeconómicas en el Mercosur, Buenos Aires: Fondo de Cultura Económica, joint with Jorge Carrera and Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, 2000.
Introduction en Sturzenegger, Federico y Mariano Tommasi, The Political Economy of Reform, pp. 1-33, joint with Mariano Tommasi, 1998.
Inflation and the Delay of Stabilizations en Armijo, Leslie (ed.) Conversations on Democratization and Economic Reform, pp.118-124, Center for International Studies, USC, 1995.
Bolivia: From Stabilization to What? in Dornbusch, Rudiger y Sebastian Edwards (eds.), Reform, Recovery and Growth, Latin America and the Middle East, capítulo 8, pp. 239-281. University of Chicago Press, 1995.
Problemas de Crecimiento en los países en desarrollo: Una Introducción Estudios de Economía, Vol. 20, pp. 3-18, junio 1993, joint with Rodrigo Fuentes.
La Economía Política de los Programas de Estabilización Colección Estudios CIEPLAN, No. 36, pp. 41-66, diciembre 1992, joint with Raúl Labán.
Description of a Populist Experience: Argentina 1973-1976 in Dornbusch, Rudiger and Sebastian Edwards (eds.), Macroeconomic Policies and Income Distribution in Latin America, University of Chicago Press. Capítulo 4, pp. 77-118, 1991.
Financial Adaptation and the Optimal Time of Financial Liberalization in Eastern Europe, in O’ Brien, Richard (ed.) Finance and the International Economy, Oxford University Press. Capítulo 7, pp. 94-10, 1991.