Reducing Negative Side-effects

The greatest single problem with public policy analysis, and the one that encourages nihilism the most, is that negative side effects of policies are often not predicted in advance. There is thus a popular sense that each policy just generates a new set of problems. To be sure, humans have limited foresight, and thus it is not possible to predict all possible side effects. However, analysts could greatly increase their record in this respect through recourse to an extensive mapping exercise. Mapping is a key step in the interdisciplinary research process [Mapping Interdisciplinary Connections]. But it deserves special attention in policy analysis. Policy analysts should ask several questions:

· Which phenomena are likely to be affected by the proposed policy, and in what way? [See Phenomena Investigated in Human Science]

· If negative effects seem likely, are there ways of adjusting the policy to limit these effects?

· Are the side effects likely to be so serious as to bring the advisability of the policy as a whole into question?

At the very least, an exercise of asking these questions of every phenomenon should encourage the evaluation of these side effects, and encourage later refinements (or perhaps in some cases the repudiation) of the policy in question. Without such an exercise certain side effects will simply not be appreciated when a policy is considered. Recall that multiple interventions may be required in a complex system to achieve desired ends while mitigating harmful side effects.

The fact that particular policies often have both good and bad effects provides a powerful argument for the pursuit of Balance in Public Policy

William H. Newell, Ch. 13 “Decision Making in Interdisciplinary Studies” in Göktug Morçöl (ed.) Handbook of Decision Making (New York: CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group, 2007), 245-264 includes "Identifying Linkages among Disciplines" as a step in the IDS process that helps anticipate side-effects.

Paul D. Hirsch, J. Peter Brosius, et al. " Navigating complex trade-offs in conservation and development: An integrative framework," Issues in Interdisciplinary Studies 31 (2013),99-122, warn us that some negative outcomes are often inevitable when tackling complex problems. They suggest strategies for consultation regarding such tradeoffs. See Integrating the Views of Citizens