Abstract

These days, there is concern over global climate change, which also presents numerous difficulties for the forest environment. particularly the productivity of the forests. A key species in Alberta's mixed wood boreal forests, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm) has a major influence on the natural environment and wood supply of the province. The main objectives of this research are to model the effects of climate change on the dynamics of forest productivity in Alberta and to anticipate the variability of the lodgepole pine site index. For lodgepole pine, 2095 site index plots are available, of which 450 are managed stands and 1645 are natural stands. The Alberta Climate Model provides climate data from 1961 to 1990. The Julian date on which growth degree-days above 5°C exceed 100 shows the most significant relationships with other characteristics in both managed stands and natural stands, according to the Principal Component Analysis and correlation matrix heat map analysis. Furthermore, in managed stands, heat-related climate factors have a good correlation with site index, but frost-free days plays an important role in natural stands. I used the climatic data for 2025, 2025, and 2085 in all of Alberta to create forecasts for the lodgepole pine site index using the Random Forest modeling method. My research indicates that in the managed stand, the site index will rise to the higher site index classes, whereas in the natural stand, it will decrease to variable degrees in 2055 and be more decentralized. It suggested that the productivity of the managed stands would be better that of the natural stand. Therefore, the site index displays the various changes brought about by future climate change. For this reason, it is crucial to take climate change into account while managing forests.

Photo 1: Lodgepole pine.