With the presidential election creeping closer, many wonder over the merit of political polls. A political poll is taken to determine the outcome of a political election. Currently, the more popular polls for the upcoming presidential election are taken statewide.
As a poll is not a census, information is usually gathered from smaller but diverse groups of citizens. According to Caltech, “a sample size of just 1,000 to 1,500 people can be enough to estimate national opinion in the United States with a high level of accuracy”. This seems to reassure and prepare the public for their future president as they can already make educated assumptions over the victor of the election. However, many dismiss the inaccuracies within presidential election polls.
Polls can be swayed by many factors. The funders of polls, the polling methods, percent of educated guesses taken, and groups asked can obviously, heavily alter the outcome of the poll. What else affects the merit of polls? There has been a recent decline in poll participants, which has lead to lessened representation, and therefore, a large margin of error in polling. Recent elections also tend to be very close. Due to this, polls in swing states can be misleading. We simply won’t know until the victor is announced.
To completely discredit polls would be rash. Some political polls hold merit. Often, if a poll reports their margin of error, it is reliable. Recent interviewing, diverse interviewees, and lesser conclusion based percentages typically lead to trustworthy polls.
While political polls have their ups and downs, it’s still imperative to participate in them! Do your best to ensure the polls you watch hold merit before you have already decided on the victor of elections.
Madeline Speights