How to Avoid a Climate Disaster Reflection

If you ask people what they think is the most pressing problem facing humanity at this time (which is something I do sometimes) one of the most common answers is climate change. Now, this may be due to the fact that most people I talk to are liberal, and most liberals view this as a defining issue of our time, but it’s hard to deny that climate change is a real issue that we ought to be concerned about. Personally, I’ve been rather ignorant about the details of the causes and consequences of climate change. This is partly because it is not my field of expertise, and partly because the effective altruism community that I discuss global issues with tends to not worry about this issue as much as other well-intentioned people.

After feeling dissatisfied with my lack of knowledge of this subject, I finally decided to learn some things. I wasn’t sure which audiobook to select because I know authors on different points of the political spectrum have different agendas and will tend to leave out important facts that counter their argument. I decided to go with Bill Gates’ book because I respect his ambition to improve the world, believe he is an honest fellow, and figure he’d be under the most scrutiny to publish factual and complete information. I’m satisfied with the choice I made, and I hope to share some of my learnings and key takeaways in this post.

Bill is a data-driven guy, and he gets write to the point - humans emit around 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases (CO2, Methane, and N2O) each year on net, and the only way to stop the planet from warming is to get that number to zero and then some. He gives a reasonably detailed outline of where these emissions come from: making things (31%), plugging in (27%), growing things (food) 19%, getting around (16%), and keeping cool and staying warm (7%). He explains what the key technological and political challenges are, how we might adapt to a warming world, and some promising steps we can take individually and collectively to make progress on climate change.

Bill is a technologist, and unsurprisingly he views technological innovation as the key to solving most of the world’s problems. When it comes to climate change, I pretty much fully agree with him here. Political coordination seems far more difficult considering how widely countries differ with regard to their past contributions to emissions, current energy use, future potential use, and the future consequences they may bear. The commitments that have been made thus far by countries and corporations, such as the Paris Climate Agreement, tend to just kick the can down the road. He also points out that the recessions of the COVID pandemic only led to about a 5% decrease in emissions, suggesting that shrinking our economies is not a feasible solution to the problem. Most importantly, he makes it clear that it would be unreasonable and unethical to prevent developing countries from industrializing simply to reduce their emissions.

A list of technologies that Bill says we need is shared below (please excuse the poor quality). Nuclear power seems to be the most promising alternative to fossil fuels as it is far more efficient than other renewables in terms of the material and space required per unit of energy produced. Plus, contrary to popular belief, it causes far less deaths per unit of energy produced than most alternatives. Effective carbon capture (removing CO2 emissions from the atmosphere) also seems essential if we want to eliminate emissions that can’t easily be replaced and eventually become net-negative. The other technologies will also be useful, but none of them alone would put a significant dent in our total emissions. The discussion of geoengineering, such as using aerosols to reflect sunlight away from the planet, was entirely new to me, but seems quite interesting as a last resort to cool the planet, considering the potential risks it may pose.

I particularly enjoyed the chapter on the interplay of policy, technology, and markets. Figuring out how the government can incentivize innovation of socially beneficial technologies and services is a big interest of mine. Coincidentally, on the day I’m writing this, the US senate has just approved the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” which includes over $350 million towards climate action, the largest piece of climate legislation in US history. More subsidies that cover the “green premiums” of clean energy alternatives will be necessary to drive consumers and producers towards these options, further incentivizing innovation in this space. Ultimately, large reductions in emissions won’t be achieved until clean alternatives become more economical and there is enough time for the transitions to be made.

A few more quick, miscellaneous takeaways. Planting trees is good, but planting the trillions needed to really reduce emissions is unrealistic. It’s more important that we focus on preserving the forests that currently exist. China has been the primary driver of increased emissions in the past few decades, partly due to their demand for cement and meat. Solar, wind, and hydro power should be adopted where possible, but they are not scalable enough to meet our total energy needs. Replacing all cars, trucks, and buses with electric vehicles will only account for about 10% of all emissions. If the Arctic permafrost melts, it could release lots of methane, which would cause rapid warming - this is the most dangerous scenario. Bill’s primary recommendation for individuals wanting to make an impact is to use their voices to influence policymakers, as opposed to changing their consumer habits.

As mentioned, I was satisfied with my decision to listen to this audiobook as I learned a good deal about the issue of climate change. I think I will be a better consumer of news on the subject moving forward, and more conscientious of how my personal choices contribute to the problem. I still stand with the general effective altruism consensus that this is not our most pressing issue (compared to things like advanced AI, biosecurity, nuclear war, and animal welfare), since climate change is not neglected nor particularly tractable, meaning it’s not clear that working on this problem would be more useful than working on another pressing problem. Overall, I’d recommend this book to anyone looking to get their feet wet in this important topic.