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Iran is likely to have a nuclear weapon within a number of years

Background and Context


Reasons to agree:
  1. Many credible estimates indicate that Iran could produce nuclear weapons by between roughly 2008 and 2015. (See argument page for estimates) If these estimates are taken as correct, they indicate that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons in a relatively short time-frame. This contributes to the argument that Iran posses an "imminent" threat that may warrant "preemptive" military action by the United States.
  2. The BBC reported on 6/2/06 - "Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte told BBC Radio's Today programme Tehran could have a nuclear bomb ready between 2010 and 2015." 
  3. John Chipman, the head of The International Insitute for Strategic Studies in London, argued on 1/31/2007 that, "Iran could be only two or three years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon... Iran had stockpiled 250 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which, when enriched, would be enough for 30 to 50 weapons." 
  4. In a 3/27/2006 Institute for Science and International Security report, David Albright and Corey Hinderstein conclude that, "Given another year to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon, where some inefficiencies in the plant are expected, and a few more months to convert the uranium into weapon components, Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009. By this time, Iran is assessed to have had sufficient time to prepare the other components of a nuclear weapon."
R2A(+): 1       R2AA(+): 0       R2DA(-): 0    
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Common Interest:
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Interest of those who agree



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Values that agree:

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External links and resources:

    1. A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen, contradicting judgment two years ago that Tehran was working relentlessly toward building a nuclear bomb.
    R2D(-): 0       R2AD(-): 0       R2DD(+): 0        Total Score: 1
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      Opposing Interest:
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      Interest of those who disagree
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      Web-pages that disagree:

      1. U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work, By MARK MAZZETTI Published: December 3, 2007 

      Web-pages that disagree:

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      1. "x" is a reason to disagree with the belief that:
      2. "y"
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      # of reasons to agree: 0
      # of reasons to disagree: -0
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      # of reasons to agree with reasons to disagree: -0
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