Reader (Associate Professor) in Economics, Birkbeck, University of London,

Director Birkbeck Center for Applied Macroeconomics (BCAM)

Programme Director: MPhil/PhD Economics and Finance

BA (Bogazi├ži), PhD (Leuven)

Curriculum Vitae

In Press

Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends, (in press) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (with Henrique Basso, Ron Smith and Tobias Grasl). online appendix

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Read voxeu column on this paper; German and French commentaries in the Swiss magazin Die Volkswirtschaft