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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - August 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 100919(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Japan JMA, International IMME, ECMWF monthly, BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (020919 080919 ) Temperature graphics (080919) E3 graphics (080919), Russia 010819, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919, CanSips 070919, S National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080919, NMME and CFS2 graphics 090919, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 100919

Graphics via WMO:
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 OCT NOV DEC

Summary - .



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080919
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC well above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal W Eire W Scotland and NW England elsewhere normal
OCT normal locally above in W Eire NOV normal but above in SW Eire and NW Scotland DEC above normal but normal in E half of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020919
TEMP:
OCT normal locally above W Wales, SE Eire and SE England NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT NW Scotland below, above in Eire Wakes and N England elsewhere normal NOV E UK and E Eire normal elsewhere above normal DEC above normal especially in W



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100919
Temp: above normal
PPN : above normal
PMSL: below normal especially in N
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but N and E UK above
PPN : SW Eire and SW England above normal elsewhere normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 070919
TEMP: Season mostly above normal but S Eire locally below
OCT Eire normal elsewhere above normal NOV Eire normal locally below in S, elsewhere above normal DEC N above S below
PPN : Season NW Scotland above, west UK and west Eire normal but eastern areas below.
OCT normal locally below in Eire, N Ireland nd NE Scotland NOV NE below SW above DEC SE Eire and E Uk below elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV normal DEC N normal elsewhere above
PPN :
OCT SE England above elsewhere below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal



Russia 010919
Temp: NW below SE normal
PPN : NW normal SE above normal





Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080919
TEMP: season : Above normal - (only 1/7 model went for normal).
OCT above 7/7 NOV above 6/7 normal 1/7 DEC above 6/7 below 1/7
PPN rate: above normal (3/7 models other normal).
OCT above 2/7 below 3/7 normal 2/7 NOV above 4/7 normal 1/7 below 2/7 DEC above 4/7 normal 2/7

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NASA anomaly .
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 as supplied to NMME data set Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200




2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080919
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC well above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV normal but above in SW Eire and NW Scotland DEC above normal but normal in E half of England JAN above normal but normal in E Scotland and E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020919
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV E UK and E Eire normal elsewhere above normal DEC above normal especially in W JAN normal



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
NOV Eire normal locally below in S, elsewhere above normal DEC N above S below JAN S below N normal
PPN :
NOV NE below SW above DEC SE Eire and E Uk below elsewhere normal JAN far N below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC N normal elsewhere above JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080919
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC well above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal
DEC above normal but normal in E half of England JAN above normal but normal in E Scotland and E England FEB Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020919
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal especially in W JAN normal FEB above normal



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP: Season Scotland and N Ireland above, Midlands and S Eire below
DEC N above S below JAN S below N normal FEB N above S below elsewhere normal
PPN : season normal locally below in S Eire and NE Scotland
DEC SE Eire and E Uk below elsewhere normal JAN far N below elsewhere above FEB below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
DEC N normal elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB Scotland and W Eire above elsewhere below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080919
TEMP: season : above normal (1/7 normal 1/7 below normal 5/7 above)
DEC above 6/7 below 1/7 JAN above 4/7 below 2/7 normal 1/7 FEB above 4/7 below 2/7 normal 1/7
PPN rate: Season : above normal (1/7 below 1/7 normal 5/7 above)
DEC above 4/7 normal 2/7 JAN above 5/7 normal 2/7 FEB above 3/7 below 3/7 normal 1/7



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



2020 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080919
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in S and W Eire, Wales, Midlands and SW/W of England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020919
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal SE Eire and SE England



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
JAN S below N normal FEB N above S below MAR N above S below
PPN :
JAN far N below elsewhere above FEB below normal MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB Scotland and W Eire above elsewhere below MAR above normal





2020 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080919
TEMP: Season: above normal but Eire normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales and SW England



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
FEB N above S below MAR N above S below APR below normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere below APR England (except SW) and Wales normal otherwise below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB Scotland and W Eire above elsewhere below MAR above normal APR Scotland and N England below elsewhere above





2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - -



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020919
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season:S and E Eire, S Scotland, S and SE England normal elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP: season N normal S below
MAR N above S below APR below normal MAY below normal
PPN : season below normal
MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere below APR England (except SW) and Wales normal otherwise below MAY W and S below elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070919
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR Scotland and N England below elsewhere above MAY W Scotland above S and E Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above normal



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2020 APR MAY JUN



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
APR below normal MAY below normal JUN below normal
PPN :
APR England (except SW) and Wales normal otherwise below MAY W and S below elsewhere normal JUN below normal





2020 MAY JUN JUL


CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL S above N below
PPN :
MAY W and S below elsewhere normal JUN below normal JUL below normal





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary -



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP: Season SE above, Scotland and W Eire below elsewhere normal
JUN below normal JUL S above N below AUG S above N UK and W Eire below
PPN : season below normal
JUN below normal JUL below normal AUG below normal





2020 JUL AUG SEP






NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory