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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - July 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 120818(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Japan JMA, International IMME, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC and if available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - USA USA - NCEP CFS2 (010818 080818), Russia 310818, CanSips 310818, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080818, ECMWF monthly 120818, UKMO seasonal 120818, BCC China 120818.
Data received after summary written.
NOT AVAILABLE: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080818
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal but normal in W Eire, NE Scotland and NE England
SEP normal OCT normal locally above in SW England NOV above normal well above in Wales
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
SEP normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and Ayrshire OCT normal but below in SE Eire and above in NW Scotland NOV normal but above in SW Eire and below in E Anglia

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010818
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and SW England
SEP normal locally above in SW England OCT normal locally above in SW England and Wales NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal but NW Scotland N Ireland and W Eire below Wales and SW England above OCT normal but W Eire and NW Scotland above NOV normal but NW Scotland abover



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP Above or well above normal OCT Above or well above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: Eire and N Ireland near normal elsewhere below
SEP below normal OCT Eire near normal elsewhere below NOV Scotland below elsewhere above normal




UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 120818 - TEMP: Above or well above normal
PPN : S and E UK below normal or well below normal elsewhere similar probs A/N/B but normal more likely in W Scotland
PSML: Above normal especially in the S




ECMWF - monthly - 120818 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
SEP near normal OCT near normal NOV near normal
PPN:
SEP Below normal in central and S Eire, central S England Midlands and NE England, locally above near coasts in E, W and N elsewhere normal OCT mostly below normal but above in NE Scotland SE England SW England and SE Eire NOV Below in NW Scotland elsewhere mostly above normal, especially SW England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
SEP normal OCT normal NOV mostly above normal
PPN : Season
SEP N below S above OCT mainly below normal but N Wales N England and SE Scotland above NOV mainly below normal but NW Scotland above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
SEP normal in far W elsewhere above normal OCT normal in far W and SW elsewhere above normal NOV normal locally below over Eire
PPN :
SEP N normal elsewhere above OCT NW third of UK and Eire normal elsewhere below NOV N Scotland below England and Wales above elsewhere normal



Russia 310718
Temp: Above normal locally no signal W Scotland
PPN : Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere no signal/similar probs for above/normal/below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080818
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: season - normal



NMME Graphics 080818

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120818
200



2018 OCT NOV DEC


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080818
TEMP:
OCT normal locally above in SW England NOV above normal well above in Wales DEC above normal but well above in Eire, N Ireland Scotland, N England Wales and Cornwall
PPN: Season:
OCT normal but below in SE Eire and above in NW Scotland NOV normal but above in SW Eire and below in E Anglia DEC normal but below in Wales and N Midlands/NE England but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010818
TEMP:
OCT normal locally above in SW England and Wales NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but W Eire and NW Scotland above NOV normal but NW Scotland abover DEC mostly above normal




UKMO - 120818 - TEMP: Above or well above normal
PPN : W of UK and Eire near normal elsewhere similar probs A/N/B (no signal)
PSML: similar probs A/N/B (no signal)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
OCT Above or well above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT Eire near normal elsewhere below NOV Scotland below elsewhere above normal DEC S below N above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV mostly above normal DEC normal
PPN : Season
OCT mainly below normal but N Wales N England and SE Scotland above NOV mainly below normal but NW Scotland above DEC N below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
OCT normal in far W and SW elsewhere above normal NOV normal locally below over Eire DEC normal
PPN :
OCT NW third of UK and Eire normal elsewhere below NOV N Scotland below England and Wales above elsewhere normal DEC normal but Enfland and Wales above


2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080818
TEMP:
NOV above normal well above in Wales DEC above normal but well above in Eire, N Ireland Scotland, N England Wales and Cornwall JAN above normal but well above in N and W UK and Eire.
PPN:
NOV normal but above in SW Eire and below in E Anglia DEC normal but below in Wales and N Midlands/NE England but above in NW Scotland JAN normal but above in Wales NW Midlands E Anglia much of W Scotland and parts of Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010818
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN well above normal
PPN:
NOV normal but NW Scotland abover DEC mostly above normal JAN N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal




UKMO - 120818 - TEMP: Above or well above normal
PPN : Above normal more likely than below
PSML: S above normal, elsewhere normal but chance below in far NE Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season:
NOV Scotland below elsewhere above normal DEC S below N above JAN Scotland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
NOV mostly above normal DEC normal JAN normal
PPN : Season
NOV mainly below normal but NW Scotland above DEC N below elsewhere above JAN mostly below



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
NOV normal locally below over Eire DEC normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV N Scotland below England and Wales above elsewhere normal DEC normal but Enfland and Wales above JAN normal





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary -



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080818
TEMP: Season: well above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010818
TEMP: Season: above normal well above in Midlands
PPN: Season: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal
DEC S below N above JAN Scotland above elsewhere below FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above




ECMWF - monthly - 120818 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
DEC near normal but above in SE third of UK JAN near normal FEB near normal hint of below normal Eire and E Scotland
PPN:
DEC S above N below JAN NW Scotland below, Eire normal elsewhere above normal FEB below normal but SE Scotland, NE England SW England above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN normal FEB above normal
PPN : Season
DEC N below elsewhere above JAN mostly below FEB mostly below



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN normal FEB mostly below normal
PPN :
DEC normal but England and Wales above JAN normal FEB normal or below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080818
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: above normal but N Scotland normal with some indication of below normal



NMME Graphics 080818

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120618
200



2019 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080818
TEMP: Season: above normal well above in W Midlands
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales NW England and W Scotland also SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010818
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal in E England Scotland N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN Scotland above elsewhere below FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above MAR below normal



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB mostly below normal MAR normal
PPN :
JAN normal FEB normal or below MAR normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN : Season
JAN mostly below FEB mostly below MAR mostly below





2019 FEB MAR APR



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070818
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN : Season
FEB mostly below MAR mostly below APR mostly above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above MAR below normal APR below normal



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
FEB mostly below normal MAR normal APR normal in W and SW elsewhere above
PPN :
FEB normal or below MAR normal APR normal



2019 MAR APR MAY



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR below normal MAY below normal



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
MAR normal APR normal in W and SW elsewhere above MAY normal in NW and SW elsewhere above J
PPN :
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal





2019 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN NW UK and NW Eire below elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season:
APR below normal MAY below normal JUN above normal especially W Wales



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
APR normal in W and SW elsewhere above MAY normal in NW and SW elsewhere above JUN abiove normal
PPN :
APR normal MAY normal JUN SE England normal elsewhere below




2019 MAY JUN JUL



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN NW UK and NW Eire below elsewhere above normal JUL slightly below normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN above normal especially W Wales JUL above normal



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
MAY normal in NW and SW elsewhere above JUN abiove normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal JUN SE England normal elsewhere below JUL normal bur N England and S/E Scotland above





2019 JUN JUL AUG



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120818 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN NW UK and NW Eire below elsewhere above normal JUL slightly below normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JUN above normal especially W Wales JUL above normal AUG below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory