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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - November 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 161218(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency due by 31st, Korea APCC due 23rd. Not available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (301118 051218 081218 131218) also E3 graphics (081218) and Temp graphs (081218), Russia 301118, CanSips 301118, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 091218, NMME and CFS2 graphics 091218, UKMO seasonal 111218, ECMWF monthly 111218, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 111218. Japan JMA 121218, JAMSTEC (main seasons only) 131218, KMA 131218, CopernicusEU MME (CMCC DWD ECMWF UKMO MereoFr) 131218, USA - IRI 141218, International 151218, BCC China 161218. Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 JAN FEB MAR

Summary - -



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean). (Has got some layers in stratosphere)
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP: Season: normal but Midlands and SE England above
JAN Above normal, well above in S and E England but normal in N Scotland N Ireland and most of Eire FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: ABove normal in S Scotland England Wales and S Eire elsewhere normal
JAN above normal FEB Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal but England above normal .

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081218
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half England above normal elsewhere normal
JAN Wales and S England well above, far N Scotland normal, elsewhere above normal FEB normal MAR normal APR Wales SW England Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above MAY N Ireland Eire NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal but most of Eire normal APR N Scotland and E half England normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally above in SW Scotland and far N England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051218
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal
JAN Wales and S England well above, N Scotland normal, elsewhere above normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB N Ireland, Eire, NE Scotland, SE England and NE England normal elsewhere above normal MAR N Scotland, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 301118
TEMP: Season: above normal but Wales, Midlands and SE England well above
JAN above normal but well above in S FEB normal but Midlands and SE England above normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
JAN above normal FEB normal but SE Eire below and above in NW Scotland and Cornwall MAR normal but above in Cornwall, Devon and SW Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer. (not good enough to resolve stratospheric changes?)
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP: Season: slightyl aboe normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JAN N Scotland above elsewhere below FEB below normal MAR below normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 141218 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Above normal in SW, S and SE England also N England S Scotland and N Ireland. Elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). (EC and UKMO have layers into stratosphere)

Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 131218
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: near normal but chance of S Wales and S half England above normal UT
PPN: normal but far N Scotland below, Wales and England (except the NW) above normal
PMSL: Normal N of 55 deg N elsewhere below normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but chance of SE Eire, S England and Wales above normal UT
PPN: normal but Eire could be below normal
PMSL: normal but above in Eire, N ireland S Scotland and N England
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but chance of SW Eire Wales and England above normal UT but N Scotland below LT
PPN: NW Scotland below, SE Eire Wales and England above elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but below S of 54 deg N
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but parts of Wales and N England above (UT)
PPN: normal but NW Scotland below and locally above near coast of Irish and N Sea (N'ly ?)
PMSL: normal but above in N Scotland (and Scandinavia) chance of below in S/SW
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: Mostly near normal but chance that far NW Scotland is below, and Wales, Midlands and SW England above.
PPN: normal but far NW below and above in SE Eire, S and E of England
PMSL: below normal but far N Scotland normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: Normal but NW UK below
PPN: normal but far NW Scotland below and above in Wales and England
PMSL: below normal especially in S



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 131218 -
JAN Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB normal but SE England above MAR above normal
PPN : Season
JAN normal but above in SE Eire, Wales SW England and S Scotland FEB S England and S Wales above elsewhere normal MAR normal
PMSL: Season
JAN below normal FEB below normal especially in S MAR normal chance of above to NE also to the SW



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 121218
Temp: Season above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN : Season Scotland below elsewhere above
JAN above normal FEB Scotland below elsewhere above normal MAR N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (WSW)
JAN S above normal N below (WSW strong) FEB Below normal (SW) MAR above normal (WNW)




UKMO - 111218 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: No strong signal - Uncertain but a hint that SW England and coastal S England may be above but Eire, N Ireland NW England and N and W Scotland below.
PPN : S UK above N/NW UK below normal elsewhere nrearer normal more likely. Slightly elevated chance that N Scotland could be well below and SW England and eastern coastal UK well above.
PSML: N near normal S below normal (may imply increased cyclonic easterlies)




ECMWF - monthly - 111218 - (Caution new hindcast period may be slightly warmer than 1981-2010 average)
TEMP:
JAN SE Eire, S Wales and S England above elsewhere normal.
FEB normal but SW Eire below.
MAR normal locally above in NE Scotland and N Midlands.
PPN:
JAN S Eire S Wales and SW England above, NW Eire NW England and most of Scotland below elsewhere normal.
FEB ABove in NE Scotland and NE England and perhaps coastal NE N Ireland and NW Wales, below in Scotland, western Eire Wales and NW England elsewhere normal.
MAR above in SW Scotland S Wales and SW England, below in N Scotland elsewhere normal.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 111218
Temp: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : Parts of S Eire and S England above elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB normal MAR normal locally above in parts of Eire and S Wales
PPN :
JAN Scotland below elsewhere above FEB NW Scotland below elsewhere above MAR NW Scotland below elsewhere above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
JAN SW Eire and SW England normal elsewere above FEB normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN :
JAN normal FEB Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire below elsewhere normal MAR normal



Russia - 301118
Temp: no signal (similar probs for above/normal/below) but Atlantic area shown as below normal
PPN : Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere no signal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091218
TEMP: season : above normal (GFDL normal none below)
PPN rate: N normal elsewhere above



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151218
TEMP: season - E England above elsewhere normal
JAN Eire normal elsewhere above FEB normal MAR normal
PPN rate: Season - normal but SW Uk above
JAN N Ireland Eire Wales and SW England above elsewhere normal FEB normal MAR normal



NMME Graphics 091218

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly (caution new hindcast averaging period)
200


2019 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal APR noprmal but SE Scotland Midlands and SE England above M
PPN:
FEB Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal but England above normal APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081218
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal APR Wales SW England Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN:
FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal but most of Eire normal APR N Scotland and E half England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051218
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal APR N Ireland, Eire Wales, SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above
PPN:
FEB N Ireland, Eire, NE Scotland, SE England and NE England normal elsewhere above normal MAR N Scotland, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal APR normal locally above in SW Eire and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 301118
TEMP:
FEB normal but Midlands and SE England above normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN:
FEB normal but SE Eire below and above in NW Scotland and Cornwall MAR normal but above in Cornwall, Devon and SW Eire APR normal locally below in Midlands



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB below normal MAR below normal APR below normal




UKMO - 111218 -
TEMP: Increased chance of below normal but SW England may be normal
PPN : N below S above elsewhere uncertain
PSML: S below normal elsewhere nearer normal




ECMWF - monthly - 111218 - (Caution new averaging period may be slightly warmer than 1981-2010 average)
TEMP:
FEB normal but SW Eire below MAR normal locally above in NE Scotland and N Midlands APR above normal
PPN:
FEB ABove in NE Scotland and NE England and perhaps coastal NE N Ireland and NW Wales, below in Scotland, western Eire Wales and NW England elsewhere normal. MAR above in SW Scotland S Wales and SW England, below in N Scotland elsewhere normal APR mostly below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal locally above in parts of Eire and S Wales APR normal but above in N Ireland Eire Wales and Scotland
PPN :
FEB NW Scotland below elsewhere above MAR NW Scotland below elsewhere above APR below normal



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above APR Eire and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN :
FEB Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire below elsewhere normal MAR normal APR below normal





2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 171118



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal but SE Scotland Midlands and SE England above MAY normal but above in S of England
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but N Ireland and SE Eire normal
MAR normal but England above normal APR above normal MAY normal but above in N England, Scotland central and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081218
TEMP: Season: SE England above elsewhere normal
MAR normal APR Wales SW England Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above MAY N Ireland Eire NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: far N Scotland and S Eire normal elsewhere above normal
MAR above normal but most of Eire normal APR N Scotland and E half England normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally above in SW Scotland and far N England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051218
TEMP: Season: SE England above elsewhere normal
MAR normal APR N Ireland, Eire Wales, SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N England and S Scotland
MAR N Scotland, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal APR normal locally above in SW Eire and SW Scotland MAY normal but SW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 301118
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR normal but above in Cornwall, Devon and SW Eire APR normal locally below in Midlands MAY normal in N England, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR below normal MAY Wales, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere above



USA - IRI - 141218 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal but NW Scotland above normal
PPN : Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere no signal



Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 131218
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: normal but chance of above in England and Wales
PPN: near normal

PMSL: near normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: near normal
PPN: near normal but chance of above in SW and W Wales
PMSL: near normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: Scotland near normal elsewhere above
PPN: normal but chance of below in S Eire, S UK and NE Scotland
PMSL: East near normal, West above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: far N near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: near but locally below normal in Wales and N England also N Scotland
PMSL: above normal but S near normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but Wales and most of England above
PPN: N half Sc otland normal elsewhere above
PMSL: below normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: near normal
PPN: normal but N and W Eire above
PMSL: near normal but perhaps below to NE and above to SW (more NW winds?)



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 131218
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: normal but NW Scotland and SE England below normal




UKMO - 111218 -
TEMP: Normal or above normal with chance of well above in S
PPN : Above normal but chance that parts of S/SE may be below normal
PSML: Most of S probably above normal and far N below.




ECMWF - monthly - 111218 - (Caution new averaging period may be slightly warmer than 1981-2010 average)
TEMP:
MAR normal locally above in NE Scotland and N Midlands APR above normal MAY normal but above in NE and SE Scotland and NE England.
PPN:
MAR above in SW Scotland S Wales and SW England, below in N Scotland elsewhere normal APR mostly below normal MAY Wales and Midlands below, above in N Eire, N Ireland, NW England and SW Scotland elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
MAR normal locally above in parts of Eire and S Wales APR normal but above in N Ireland Eire Wales and Scotland MAY normal J
PPN :
MAR NW Scotland below elsewhere above APR below normal MAY NW Scotland below, above in S Scotland and N England elsewhere normal



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP: Season: E UK above normal elsewhere normal
MAR Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above APR Eire and SW England normal elsewere above MAY normal locally above in E Anglia
PPN : Season: normal
MAR normal APR below normal MAY S and E England normal elsewhere above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091218
TEMP: season: above normal
PPN rate: England and Wales above elsewhere normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151218
TEMP: season - normal
MAR normal APR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above MAY N Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN rate: Season - normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal






NMME and CFS2 Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly
200


2019 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP: l
APR noprmal but SE Scotland Midlands and SE England above MAY normal but above in S of England JUN normal
PPN:
APR above normal MAY normal but above in N England, Scotland central and SW Eire JUN normal but above in NE England and below in SW Midlands.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081218
TEMP: Season: N Scotland and S England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal but N Scotland and Eire normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051218
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above inn SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 301118
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Eire NW Scotland SE England and SW England
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales Midlands and SE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN near normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY Wales, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere above JUN N above S below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
APR normal but above in N Ireland Eire Wales and Scotland MAY normal JUN above normal J
PPN :
APR below normal MAY NW Scotland below, above in S Scotland and N England elsewhere normal JUN Wales and SW above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
APR Eire and SW England normal elsewere above MAY normal locally above in E Anglia JUN normal
PPN :
APR below normal MAY S and E England normal elsewhere above JUN SWales and N Ireland above, elsewhere normal





2019 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP: Season: normal but above in N half of Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire, S Scotland and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081218
TEMP: Season: above normal but NE England and SE Scotland normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051218
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 301118
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales Midlands and SE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN near normal JUL N below S above
PPN:
MAY Wales, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere above JUN N above S below JUL below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY NW Scotland below, above in S Scotland and N England elsewhere normal JUN Wales and SW above elsewhere below JUL NW Scotland above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in E Anglia JUN normal JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN :
MAY S and E England normal elsewhere above JUN SWales and N Ireland above, elsewhere normal JUL SE England below, N half Scotland above, elsewhere normal





2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary -



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131213
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in Scotland N ireland and Eire
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland below elsewhere above
JUN near normal JUL N below S above AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN N above S below JUL below normal AUG below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051218
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN Wales and SW above elsewhere below JUL NW Scotland above elsewhere below AUG above normal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 131218
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: below normal



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP: Season: far SE and far N above elsewhere normal
JUN normal JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above AUG Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN : Season: normal
JUN SWales and N Ireland above, elsewhere normal JUL SE England below, N half Scotland above, elsewhere normal AUG normal but far N Scotland below



NMME 1 deg grib graphics 091218

UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2019 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
JUL N below S above AUG above normal SEP Eire, N ireland and perhaps SW England above elsewhere below
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG below normal SEP N below S above l



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above AUG Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above SEP normal
PPN :
JUL SE England below, N half Scotland above, elsewhere normal AUG normal but far N Scotland below SEP normal but far NW Scotland below





2019 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP Eire, N ireland and perhaps SW England above elsewhere below OCT N above S below
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP N below S above OCT below normal NOV SW England below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
AUG Eire, N Ireland, SW Wales and SW England normal elsewere above SEP normal OCT SW Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG normal but far N Scotland below SEP normal but far NW Scotland below OCT Scotland above, SE England below elsewhere normal





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP: Season: S below N above
SEP Eire, N ireland and perhaps SW England above elsewhere below OCT N above S below NOV above normal
PPN: Season: Eire and N England below elsewhere above
SEP N below S above OCT below normal NOV SW England below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP: Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
SEP normal OCT SW Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above NOV S and W Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season normal
SEP normal but far NW Scotland below OCT Scotland above, SE England below elsewhere normal NOV normal





2019 OCT NOV DEC



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 161218 -
TEMP:
OCT N above S below NOV above normal DEC England and Wales below elsewhere above
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV SW England below elsewhere above DEC below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory