A Study on delays of Administrative Processing of non-immigrant US visa at the Embassy of USA in Tokyo

The purpose of this study is to give applicants of non-immigrant visas a sort of guide about the expected delays for their visa processing in case they received Administrative Processing notice (Also known as Security Advisory Opinion). 

The data used down here is taken from the page of Non-Immigrant Visas Administrative Processing Status Check found at the webpage of the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo

The data was collected on Feb. 3, 2012 which consisted of 413 entries. The oldest entry dated back to Dec, 3, 2009, while the newest one is dated Feb, 2, 2012. A copy of the data used here can be found in this page

Data Processing
In principle, number of days was calculated for each data entry between the date of application and  the date shown in the "status" column. For fields marked as "Pending" the date was set as the date of the day when this study was made on Feb, 10, 2012. This may raise some error by assuming a shorter processing time than the actual one for pending cases.

The above figure plots the number of visa cases sorted by their required processing time. We can notice that most of the cases require a period between 10 ~ 22 days, with a peak at 14 days. Please notice that this figure plots only up to 100 days of delay, while in the collected data the maximum delay observed goes up to 1065 days! The curve of the above figure behave almost in the same manner after day 50 where a small number of cases are approved sparsely. 

Moreover, we can notice that smaller periodical peaks are observed over an interval of approximately 7 days between each pair of these peaks (red dots in the figure). This implies that most of the cases are reviewed based on weekly schedule, or it could be due to the reason that the embassy page is only updated once a week, which is less unlikely to be the reason because the page is always reflecting the actual issuance data which is can not be correlated with the date of page update. 

The above figure plots the probability of processing completion at any given number of waiting days. By example, after waiting 36 days the likelihood that the processing will be complete is 70%, while by waiting 10 days the likelihood of the processing completion is only 8%. Similar to above the shown figure plots only up to 100 days of delay, and it the probability increases in a similar manner after day 100. 

This study shows that a large portion of visas required a processing time range between 10 ~ 22 days, where the day 14th happened to be the day where the maximum number of cases have finished processing. 
The probability that a case will be finished processing is 50% at the 16th day. This means that only half of the cases have been processed during the first 16 days. This fact could be false as the data table may not include cases which where completed and removed after a while. 

In short. When receiving a 221(g) Administrative Processing notice a person should expect that he will receive a response from the embassy after two weeks of his day of application on average.

This research is done merely because of personal curiosity, and it is not related to or funded by any organization. 
Please use the results of this study merely for your own reference, and don`t rely fully on them for making important decisions. 
Delays for the administrative processing can not be accurately predicted, as they vary case by case. 

This study was inspired by the blog entry I found here.