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Contact

Vanessa.Gunnella@ecb.europa.eu

European Central Bank

DG Economics - Output and Demand Division

Sonnemannstraße 20

60314 - Frankfurt am Main

Research Interests

International Economics, Macroeconometrics, Time Series Econometrics, Econometric Methodology, Panel Data Econometrics

**The views expressed in my papers are mine and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB**

Academic Publications

• "Trade decoupling from Russia", International Economics, vol. 175, October 2023 (with A. Borin, F. P. Conteduca, E. Di Stefano, M. Mancini, L. Panon). Link.

• "Bought, sold and bought again: The impact of complex value chains on export elasticities", European Economic Review, 140, 103896, 2021 (with F. De Soyres, E. Frohm, E. Pavlova). Link, VOXEU column. 

• "Spillovers in global production networks", Review of International Economics, 29(3), 663-680, 2021 (with E. Frohm). Link

Research Papers

• Input costs and inflation dynamics: The role of foreign and domestic cost shocks (with E. Frohm)

• "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects" (with R. Cappariello, V. Gunnella, S. Franco-Bedoya, G. Ottaviano), versions: CEP Discussion Papers, Banca d'Italia Temi di Discussione, ECB WP.

• The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Evidence from a New Testing Approach

• A SUR-bounds Panel Cointegration Test in the Presence of Cross-section Dependence

• Bootstrap Rank Determination in VAR Models - A Stata Command

• The Euro Effects on EU Trade Flows and Balances: Evidence from the Cross Sectionally Correlated Panel Gravity Models (with C. Mastromarco, L. Serlenga and Y. Shin)

Policy Work

• "How vulnerable is the euro area to China export restriction of rare earth?", with M. Banin, M. D’Agostino, L. Lebastard, ECB Bulletin Box, September 2025. Link Media: 

• "What does increasing competition from China mean for euro area employment?", with C. Berson, C. Foroni, and L. Lebastard, Economic Bulletin Box, August 2025. Link

• "A new wave of Chinese competition for euro area manufacturing exporters?", with L. Boeckelmann, L. Emter, K. Klieber, and T. Spital, July 2025, ECB Blog. Link Coverage: C. Lagarde Opening remarks at G30 

• "Tariffs across the supply chain", with N. Gnocato, C. Montes-Galdon, T. Schuler, and G. Stamato, May 2025, VoxEU. Link

• "The implications of US-China trade tensions for the euro area – lessons from the tariffs imposed by the first Trump Administration", with G. Stamato and A. Kobayashi, Economic Bulletin Box, Issue 3, 2025. Link

• "Why competition with China is getting tougher than ever", with A. Al-Haschimi, L. Emter, V. Gunnella, I. Ordonez Martinez, T. Schuler, T. Spital, September 2024. Link Coverage: Draghi Report.

• "Past and future challenges for the external competitiveness of the euro area" (Main text), with M. Fidora, Economic Bulletin Article, Issue 6, 2024. Link Coverage: I. Schnabel speech "Escaping stagnation: towards a stronger euro area"

• "Sailing through storms: The fallout of Red Sea disruptions for global trade and inflation", 2024, with M. G. Attinasi, L. Boeckelmann, L. Emter, M. M. Ferrari, R. Gerinovics, B. Meunier, and R. Serafini. April 2024. Link

• "The energy shock, price competitiveness and euro area export performance", with L. Emter and T. Schuler, Economic Bulletin, Issue 3, 2023. Link

• "Deglobalisation: risk or reality?", with M. Di Sano and L. Lebastard, ECB Blog, July, 2023. Link Coverage: Draghi Report.

• "How have higher energy prices affected industrial production and imports?", with F. Chiacchio, R. De Santis and L. Lebastard Economic Bulletin, Issue 1, 2023. Link

• "Motor vehicle sector: explaining the drop in output and the rise in prices", with M. Di Sano, R. De Santis, and P. Neves, Economic Bulletin, Issue 7, 2022. Link

• "How important is invoicing currency choice for the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade?", International Role of the euro Report, June 2022 (with M. Di Sano and E. Frohm). Link Coverage: C. Lagarde speech "Twenty-five years of the ECB"

• "Global supply chains rattled by winds of war", VoxEU, June 2022 (with with M.G. Attinasi, R. Gerinovics, M. Mancini and L. Metelli). Link

• "Implications of the terms-of-trade deterioration for real income and the current account", Economic Bulletin Issue 3, April 2022 (with T. Schuler). Link Coverage: P.R. Lane speech "Underlying inflation" 

• "Natural gas dependence and risks to activity in the euro area" ,Economic Bulletin Issue 1, February 2022 (with V. Jarvis, R.Morris and M. Tóth).  Link Media coverage: Reuters, FT 

• "Global value chains - measurements, trends and drivers", ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2022 (with S. Cigna and L. Quaglietti). Link Coverage: Draghi Report; C. Lagarde speech "A new global map: European resilience in a changing world" 

• "The impact of the euro on trade: 20 years into monetary union", ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2021 (with L. Lebastard, P.Lopez-Garcia, R. Serafini and A. Zona Mattioli). Link

• "The impact of supply bottlenecks on trade",  Economic Bulletin Issue 6, September 2021 (with E. Frohm, M. Mancini, T. Schuler). Link

• "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy", ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2021 (with ECB Work Stream on Globalisation). Link

• "The semiconductor shortage and its implication for euro area trade, production and prices", Economic Bulletin Issue 4, June 2021 (with M.G. Attinasi, R. De Stefani, E. Frohm, G. Koester,M. Tóth, A. Melemenidis). Link

• "Developments in the tourism sector during the COVID-19 pandemic", Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2020 (with G. Krustev, T. Schuler). Link

• "A review of economic analyses on the potential impact of Brexit", ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2020 (with IRC Brexit Task Force). Link

• "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries",  ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2020 (ed. E. Ortega and C. Osbat) (coordinator of Section 3 "Heterogeneity in ERPT across countries, sectors and time periods: structural characteristics"). Link

• "Economic structures 20 years into the euro",  ECB Occasional Paper Series,  2019. (with D. Sondermann, A. Consolo, G. Koester, K. Lambrias, P. Lopez-Garcia, C. Nerlich, F. Petroulakis, L. Saiz, R. Serafini. Link

• "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy", ECB Occasional Paper Series, 2019. (Secretary, with ECB Working Group on Global Value Chains). Link

• "The economic implications of rising protectionism: a euro area and global perspective",  Economic Bulletin Issue 3, 2019. (with L. Quaglietti). Link Coverage: C. Lagarde Econ Hearing European Parliament. Media: FT, New York Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, Handelsblatt, Les Echos     

• "Global value chains and export elasticities: All linkages matter",  VOXEU. (with F. De Soyres, E. Frohm, E. Pavlova). Link