Senior Economist at the Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Bank of Italy
Via Nazionale, 91
00184, Rome (IT)
Email: valerio.ercolani@gmail.com
Curriculum Vitae: [latest version]
Research Interests
Macroeconomics, Quantitative and Empirical Macro, Fiscal Policy, Household Finance, Demographics
Working Papers
“The role of the Superbonus in the growth of Italian construction costs”, 2024, with Francesco Corsello [QEF 903], VoxEU column, featured in Il Foglio, Die Welt, Silicon Continent, Milano Finanza, Ansa, Marginal Revolution
“Fears for the future: saving dynamics after the Covid-19 outbreak”, 2021, with Concetta Rondinelli and Elisa Guglielminetti [Covid-19 Note], VoxEU column, featured in Il Sole 24 Ore, La Repubblica
“The macroeconomic impact of infrastructure investment: a review of channels”, 2021, [QEF 613], featured in Milano Finanza
“Intergenerational wealth inequality: the role of demographics”, 2020, with António Antunes [BoP WP 2020-09]
Refereed Articles
“Health and earnings: a general equilibrium evaluation”, 2021, Research in Economics, with António Antunes [published version]
“Forecasting US recessions: the role of economic uncertainty”, 2020, Economics Letters with Filippo Natoli, BoI WP 1299 [published version]
“Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint”, 2020, Review of Economic Dynamics, with António Antunes, BoI WP 1268, BoP WP 2016-18 [published version], featured in LSE Business Review
“The precautionary saving effect of government consumption”, 2019, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (FRONTIERS), with Nicola Pavoni, CEPR DP 10067, [published version], featured in La Voce
“How can the government spending multiplier be small at the zero lower bound?”, 2019, Macroeconomic Dynamics, with João Valle e Azevedo, BoI WP 1174, [published version]
“The effects of public spending externalities”, 2014, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control with João Valle e Azevedo, [published version], featured in Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment by L. Glaser and M. Poterba (chapter 4 by Valerie Ramey)
Columns, Notes, Publications in Books (also in Italian)
“The impact of the Superbonus on Italian construction costs”, 2024, with Francesco Corsello, VoxEU column
“Fears for the future: saving dynamics after the Covid-19 outbreak”, 2021, with Concetta Rondinelli and Elisa Guglielminetti, VoxEU column
“Dietro il risparmio degli Italiani c'è la paura del futuro”, 2021, with Concetta Rondinelli and Elisa Guglielminetti, La Voce
“La risposta della politica di bilancio degli Stati Uniti al COVID-19 e un confronto con quella dell'area dell'euro”, 2020, with Gabriele Bernardini, Covid-19 Note
“The macroeconomic impact of infrastructure investment: a review of channels”, 2021, [BoI QEF 613], featured in Milano Finanza
“Strengthening national health systems and dampening precautionary attitudes”, 2020, LSE Business Review, Covid-19 Note
“Nella crisi cresce il risparmio per precauzione”, 2020, La Voce, featured in La Repubblica (on line)
“Covid-induced precautionary saving in the US: the role of unemployment rate”, 2020, Econbrowser, Covid-19 Note
“Market volatility and the lenght of the Covid-19 recession”, 2020, with Filippo Natoli, Econbrowser, Covid-19 Note
“Dalla volatilità dei mercati l'annuncio di una crisi lunga”, 2020, with Filippo Natoli, La Voce
“Covid-19 and Economic Analysis: a Review of the Debate”, 2020, with G. Caracciolo, F. Cingano, G. Ferrero, F. Hassan, A. Papetti and P. Tommasino, Issue n° 1, n° 2, n° 3
“Ma il moltiplicatore non è sempre uguale”, 2019, with Nicola Pavoni, La Voce
“The precautionary saving: theories, measurements and policies”, 2016, Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Bank of Portugal [published version]
“An evaluation of government expenditures' externalities”, 2012, with João Valle e Azevedo, Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Bank of Portugal
“Fiscal rules on the road to an enlarged european union”, 2004, with Fabrizio Coricelli, in George Kopits (ed.) Rules-Based Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets: Background, Analysis, and Prospects, Palgrave-Macmillan [published version], see also CEPR DP 3672
“Quali modifiche al patto di stabilità e crescita”, 2003, with Fabrizio Coricelli, La Voce
(Older) Working Papers
“Cyclical and structural deficits on the road to accession: fiscal rules for an enlarged european union”, 2002, with Fabrizio Coricelli, CEPR DP 3672, see also [published version]
Work in Progress
“Saving under a pandemic risk” with António Antunes, EEA list of projects on Covid-19
“How to flip the US yield curve” with Filippo Natoli
“Credit crises and the age structure” with António Antunes