WELCOME!

I am a modeler (ECB-Global (link)) in the External Developments Division at the European Central Bank.

Contact: valentin_bernard[dot]jouvanceau[at]ecb[dot]europa[dot]eu

I am a principal economist (on leave) at the Applied Macroeconomics Research Division of the Bank of Lithuania. You can find more information in my CV at (link) (last updated in July 2024).

WORKING PAPERS 

"Trade Wars and Global Spillovers: A Quantitative Assessment with ECB-Global", with M. Darracq-Pariès, A. Dieppe, and, T. Kockerols (2025, forthcoming ECB WP)

"Household Borrowing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Post-Pandemic Insights from Nine European Credit Registers", De Jonghe et al. (2025, forthcoming)

"Consumer Price Stickiness in the Euro Area During an Inflation Surge", with E. Gautier, C. Conflitti, D. Enderle, L. Fadejeva, A. Grimaud, E. Gutierrez, J.-O. Menz, A. Paulus, P. Petroulas, and E. Wieland (2025, forthcoming ECB WP)

"Optimal policies when price fairness matters"

First draft, October (2024)  (link), Bank of Lithuania working paper series (2024)  (link*), Revision at Macroeconomic Dynamics

"Consumer price rigidity in the Baltic states during low and high inflation periods", with  L. Fadejeva and A. Paulus

Bank of Lithuania working paper series (2024)  (link), Revision at Journal Money, Credit and Banking

PUBLICATIONS

"New facts on consumer price rigidity in the Euro Area",  with E. Gautier, C. Conflitti, R. Faber, B. Fabo, L. Fadejeva, J.-O. Menz, T. Messner, P. Petroulas, P. Roldan-Blanco, F. Rumler, S. Santoro, E. Wieland, and H. Zimmer 

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2024)  (link)

"The dynamics of product and labor market power: Evidence from Lithuania",  with Z. Ding and J. Garcia-Louzao

Economics of Transition and Institutional Change (2024)  (link) 

"ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake", with I. Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau 

Economics Letters (2023)  (link) (online appendix (link))

"Wage growth in Lithuania from 2008 to 2020: Observed drivers and underlying shocks", with J. Garcia-Louzao 

Baltic Journal of Economics (2023)  (link)

POLICY REPORTS

"Consumer price rigidity in a context of low and high inflation: the case of Lithuania"

Bank of Lithuania discussion paper series (2023)  (link)

"Price adjustment in the euro area in the low-inflation period: evidence from consumer and producer micro price data"

ECB Occasional paper series (2023)  (link)

More policy reports:  (link)