WELCOME!

I am a modeler in the External Developments Division at the European Central Bank until February 2026.

Contact: valentin_bernard[dot]jouvanceau[at]ecb[dot]europa[dot]eu

I am a principal economist (on leave) at the Applied Macroeconomics Research Division of the Bank of Lithuania. You can find more information in my CV at (link) (last updated in July 2024).

WORKING PAPERS 

• "The Third-country Effects of Trade Wars", with M. Darracq-Pariès, and A. Eyquem (2026, forthcoming)

• "Consumer Price Stickiness in the Euro Area During an Inflation Surge", with E. Gautier, C. Conflitti, D. Enderle, L. Fadejeva, A. Grimaud, E. Gutierrez, J.-O. Menz, A. Paulus, P. Petroulas, and E. Wieland (2026, forthcoming ECB ChaMP WP)

• "Trade Wars and Global Spillovers: A Quantitative Assessment with ECB-Global", with M. Darracq-Pariès, A. Dieppe, and, T. Kockerols (2025, ECB WP)

• "Household Borrowing and Monetary Policy Transmission: Post-Pandemic Insights from Nine European Credit Registers", De Jonghe et al. (2025, ECB ChaMP WP)

• "Consumer price rigidity in the Baltic states during low and high inflation periods", with  L. Fadejeva and A. Paulus, BoL WP series (2024)  (link), Revision at Journal Money, Credit and Banking

PUBLICATIONS

• • "Optimal policies when price fairness matters", Macroeconomic Dynamics (2025) (link)

• • "New facts on consumer price rigidity in the Euro Area",  with E. Gautier, C. Conflitti, R. Faber, B. Fabo, L. Fadejeva, J.-O. Menz, T. Messner, P. Petroulas, P. Roldan-Blanco, F. Rumler, S. Santoro, E. Wieland, and H. Zimmer, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2024)  (link)

• • "The dynamics of product and labor market power: Evidence from Lithuania",  with Z. Ding and J. Garcia-Louzao, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change (2024)  (link) 

• • "ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake", with I. Mikaliūnaitė-Jouvanceau , Economics Letters (2023)  (link) (online appendix (link))

• • "Wage growth in Lithuania from 2008 to 2020: Observed drivers and underlying shocks", with J. Garcia-Louzao, Baltic Journal of Economics (2023)  (link)

POLICY REPORTS

• • "Consumer price rigidity in a context of low and high inflation: the case of Lithuania" BoL DP series (2023)  (link)

• • "Price adjustment in the euro area in the low-inflation period: evidence from consumer and producer micro price data", ECB OP series (2023)  (link)

• • More policy reports:  (link)