Associate Professor

Department of Defense Management 

Naval Postgraduate School

Curriculum Vitae [Google Scholar]

Economics Papers: 

• "Information Transmission within Groups: Peer Influence in High-stakes, Irreversible Financial Decisions" with Jesse Cunha and Patrick Veith, Forthcoming at Review of Economics and Statistics. [data dictionary]

• "Equilibrium Grading Policies with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Courses" with Peter Arcidiacono, Amy Hopson, and James Thomas, (Previously circulated as:  Grade Inflation in General Equilibrium with Implications for Female Interest in STEM Majors) Econometrica, Vol. 92, Issue 3, pp. 849-880. (2024) [data dictionary]

• "Opening the Black Box: Behavioral Responses of Teachers and Principals to Pay-for-Performance Incentive Programs" with Jacob Vigdor, Journal of Human Capital, Vol. 17, Issue 3, pp. 315-348. (2023) [appendix, theory]

• "Lethality and Deterrence in Affairs of Honor" with Jeremy Sandford and Paul Shea, (Previously circulated as: Mend it, Don’t End it: Optimal Mortality in Affairs of Honor) Rationality and Society, Vol 35, Issue 3, pp. 259–292. (2023)

• "When Incentives Matter Too Much: Explaining Significant Responses to Irrelevant Information"  with Jacob Vigdor, Journal of Human Capital, Vol.15, Issue 4, pp. 629-664. (2021)

• "How Long Have You Been Waiting? Explaining the Role of Irrelevant Information in the Promotion of U.S. Navy Officers" with Jason Niven and Andrew Veilleux, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 41 No. 2 pp. 604-614. (2021)

• "Strategic Matching of Schools and Teachers with (and without) Accountability Pressure" Education Finance and Policy, Vol. 12, Issue 4, pp. 516-535. (2017) [theory appendix, table appendix]  

• "Peer Delinquency and Student Achievement in Middle School" with Justin Trogdon, Labour Economics, Vol. 44, pp. 192 - 217. (2017) [NC Network Map, prior draft]

• "A Theory of Dynamic Investment in Education in Response to Accountability Pressure" Economics Letters, Vol. 149, pp. 75–78. (2016) [pdf file, appendix] 

• "Matching Strategies of Teachers and Schools in General Equilibrium" IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 4: 5. (2015)

• "The Effect of Sharing a Mother Tongue with Peers: Evidence from North Carolina Middle Schools" with Chris Jepsen, IZA Journal of Migration, Vol. 4: 5. (2015) [appendix] 

• "The Short-Run Impacts of Connecticut’s Paid Sick Leave Legislation" with Aaron Yelowitz, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 25, Issue 15, pp. 1267 - 1272. (2015) [theory, appendix] 

• "A Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Graduation Standards and Their Impact on Students' Academic Trajectories" Economics of Education Review, Vol. 37,  pp. 64 - 75. (2014) [appendix]  

• "A Note on Bubbles and Worthless Assets: The Curious Case of General Motors" with Jeremy Sandford and Paul Shea,  Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp 244 - 254. (2014) [all results] 

• “The Missing Link: Estimating the Impact of Incentives on Teacher Effort and Instructional Effectiveness  Using Teacher Accountability Legislation Data” Journal of Human Capital, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 230 - 273. (2013)  [appendix] 

• “Distributional Impacts of a Local Living Wage Increase with Ability Sorting” Economics Letters, Vol. 112, Issue 3, pp. 283 - 286. (2011)

• “Explaining Cross-Racial Differences in Teenage Labor Force Participation: Results from a Two-Sided Search Model” with Peter Arcidiacono, Alvin Murphy, and Omari Swinton, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 156, Issue 1, pp. 201 - 211. (2011)

• “The Distributional Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases when Both Labor Supply and Labor Demand are Endogenous” with Peter Arcidiacono and Walter Wessels, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, No. 1: 12 - 23. (2010)

• "Paying to Queue: A Theory of Persistent Differences in Nonunion Wage" with Peter Arcidiacono. Journal of Urban Economics, Vol. 55, No. 3, pp. 564 - 579. (2004)

Other Papers: 

• "Predicting worker retention: a machine-learning approach with the Royal Australian Navy" with Stephen Cole, James Fan, and Christopher Griffin, Military Operations Research Journal, Vol. 28 Issue 2. (2023)

• "Optimal Long-Run Talent Management of the Department of Defense Acquisition Workforce in Response to COVID-19: A Dynamic Programming Approach" with Amilcar Menichini, Defense Acquisition Research Journal, Vol. 29, Issue 1, pp. 50–77. (2021)

• "Geo-spatial Patterns in Influenza Vaccination: Evidence from Uninsured and Publicly-Insured Children in North Carolina" with Justin Trogdon, American Journal of Infection Control, Vol. 43 (3), pp. 234-240. (2015)

• “Geo-spatial Patterns in HPV Vaccination Uptake: Evidence from Uninsured and Publicly-Insured Children in North Carolina” with Justin Trogdon, Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, Vol. 24, pp. 595-602. (2015) [appendix] 

Working Papers (Drafts available upon request):

• "The Importance of Matching Effects for Labor Productivity: Evidence from Teacher-Student Interactions" with Esteban Aucejo and Jon James, Conditional Acceptance at Review of Economics and Statistics

• "Cracking Under Pressure: The Information Gap and the Sub-optimal Responses of First-Generation College Students to Academic and Financial Pressures" 

• "The Impact of NCLB's Accountability Sanctions on School Performance: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from North Carolina” with Jacob Vigdor, NBER Working Paper # 20511

Selected Media Exposure: 

• National Public Radio: All Things Considered. "No Child Left Behind: What Worked, What Didn't" (Oct. 27, 2015)

• National Public Radio: All Things Considered. "Forcing Schools To Hit The 'Reset' Button" (Oct. 27, 2015)

• fivethirtyeight.com "No Child Left Behind Worked" (Dec. 22, 2015)

• vox.com "The scariest lessons of No Child Left Behind" (July 27, 2015)

• NBER Digest (Feb 2015)

Technical Reports:

• "Identifying Cognitive Biases in Selection Boards using a Data-driven Approach" with Latika Hartmann, Naval Research Program (2024) 

• "Determinants of Navy Performance Evaluation Records" with Latika Hartmann, Naval Research Program (2023)

• "Performance Evaluation Needs Assessment" with Latika Hartmann, Naval Research Program (2022)

• “Machine Learning in AWF Talent Management: New Approaches to Prediction of Workforce Retention and Promotion” with James Fan, Acquisition Research Program (2022)

• "Individualized and Optimal Talent Management of the AWF in Response to COVID-19: Dynamic Programming Approach" with Amilcar Menichini, Acquisition Research Program (2022)

• "What We Do and Don't Know about Online Platform Rideshare/Delivery Workers in Massachusetts" Pioneer Institute of Public Policy Research (2022) 

• “USMC Mid-Career Reclassification of PMOS Personnel Policy Forecast and Analysis” with MN4106 researchers, USMC Talent Mgmt. Oversight Directorate (2021)

• “Retention Analysis Modeling for the AWF II” with Amilcar Menichini, Acquisition Research Program (2021)

• “Multi-angle Intermittent Test Administrator Analysis” with MN4106 researchers, USMEPCOM (2020)

• “Retention Analysis Modeling for the AWF” Acquisition Research Program, with Amilcar Menichini, Acquisition Research Program (2019)

• “Longitudinal Retention Analysis for Navy Personnel” with Amilcar Menichini & Simona Tick, Naval Research Program (2019)

• “Retention Analysis Model for Manpower and Personnel Analysis” with Jeremy Arkes, Jesse Cunha, Ken Doerr, & Bill Gates, Naval Research Program (2018)

• “The Problem with Measuring Effects of Delinquent Peers in Education-and How to Get Around It” with Justin Trogdon, The Brookings Institution, Brown Center Chalkboard (2017)

  • Summarized and republished in The Education Digest 82(9), 18. 2017 

• "The Labor Market Impact of Paid Sick Leave"  Employment Policies Institute (2016)

• "Were All Those Standardized Tests for Nothing? The Lessons of No Child Left Behind" with Jacob Vigdor, American Enterprise Institute (2013)

• "Making Teacher Incentives Work: Lessons from North Carolina’s Teacher Bonus Program" with Jacob Vigdor, American Enterprise Institute (2011)

• "Dropout Prevention: Strategies for improving high school graduation rates" with various, Center for Child and Family Policy, Duke University (2008)

• "Minimum Wages and Job Search: What Do Employment Effects Really Measure?" with Peter Arcidiacono, Employment Policies Institute (2004)

Works in Progress (Preliminary, No title/draft available yet):

• We examine the role of information (about own ability and course grading) and course withdrawal behavior of college students. Students with better information are more likely to finish courses with positive outcomes. Those with poor information may over- or under-withdraw, after observing intermediate results (midterm exam results), if the final grade has lower correlation with intermediate grades. Mistakes in withdrawing from courses lead to long-term negative outcomes, in higher probability of drop out. We use counterfactual simulations to examine potential impacts of increasing the cost of withdrawing.

• We unpack the role of managers in improving and evaluating the human capital of their subordinates. Using a comprehensive performance evaluation data of U.S. Navy active duty personnel, we use insights from a value-added framework (Ahn, Aucejo, and James (2024)) to examine potential trade-offs between a manager’s ability to improve an employee’s performance and to accurately assess aptitude. We use counterfactual simulations to examine potential gains to productivity by optimally matching managers to employees.

• We examine the role of matching between promotion candidates and decision makers using a comprehensive personnel dataset from the U.S. Navy. Exploiting 1) a comprehensive performance evaluation data set, 2) natural experiments where photos of the candidates were visible/not visible, 3) imperfectly observable socio-economic characteristics of the candidates (via their names), 4) a measure of physical attractiveness ("military bearing"), and 5) socio-demographic and professional data on those making promotion decisions, we examine how much demographic and professional overlap impact high-stakes career milestones.

• We examine the role of free college education on the productivity of workers using a comprehensive personnel dataset from the U.S. Navy. Sailors can receive reimbursement for college education expenses as long as they pass the course. They are free to select any institution and any field of study. We first characterize which institutions and courses are most attractive, explore how much the reimbursement condition discourages rigorous (ex. STEM) courses, and examine how these choices impact worker productivity as measured by their annual performance evaluations and long-run career trajectories.