Seminar in Economics 2020

参考文献一覧（制限あり）

Moblab

Moblab Game Mapping （制限あり）

#1 (04/27) 実験を体験する

課題：２つの実験の違いを考える

#2 (05/11) 経済学実験と心理学実験の対比

ランダム支払いと誘因整合性

今井 (2018) Ch. 3.4 標本調査

#3 (05/18) リスク態度の分類

課題：リスク態度のヒストグラムを描く

Masuda and Lee (2019)

#4 (05/25) プルーデンス、2群の検定

課題：被験者間検定

モファット (2018) Ch.3.3.3

#5 (06/01) 2群の検定(つづき）、期待効用モデル

    • スタンダード・シーケンス法* (Google form?)

JH Ch. 7.4.5 (differs from Wakker, 2010 p.56 which works under EU)

今井 (2018) Ch. 6 とくに確率分布 、Ch. 7 とくに仮説検定（Rコマンドは飛ばし読みしてよい）

#6 (06/08) 期待効用モデルの応用

今井 (2018) Ch. 6 練習問題 6.6.2 F-L バイアス in 大統領選'12 →課題（データ分析）

Holt (2018) Ch.3.5 Bomb Task

**Eckel, C. C., & Grossman, P. J. (2008a). Forecasting risk attitudes: An experimental study using actual and forecast gamble choices. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 68(1), 1–17.

＝06/15は休講予定です＝

#7 (06/24) ランク依存効用・プロスペクト理論

    • 確実性効果と被験者内検定 (当日までの宿題）

      • モファット (2018) Ch.3.7

      • Conlisk (1989) (およびAllais 1953, Starmer ＆Sugden 1991)

    • Disposition effect （損失先送り）

      • Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (1985). The disposition to sell winners too early and ride losers too long: Theory and evidence. The Journal of finance, 40(3), 777-790.

    • FLB再訪 (PWによる説明）

Ruggeri et al. (2020) Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk, Nature Human Behavior

      • Replicated for 94% of items (12 out of 13 predictions) of KT79.

      • Data consists of >4000 participants from 19 countries, with unpaid: paid=3:1.

Segal (1990), "KT (79) found

Violation of Reduction axiom and

Agreement with Compound Independence

筒井・佐々木・山根・マルデワ (2017)

モファット (2018) Ch. 12 PT、RPなど

Camerer, PT in the wild

Holt (2018) Ch. 4

Wakker (2010)

竹内 (2017)

#8 (6/29) 実験作法１．同意書、インストラクション、プログラミング、その他べからず集

  • 来週までに各自のPCにz-Treeをインストール

#9 (07/06) 実験計画・オークションの導入

#10 (07/13) 実験計画・オークションの導入

モファット Ch.2

今井 (2018) Ch. 7 とくに推定

伊藤 (2017) Ch.2

森 (2017)

#11 (07/20) プログラミング・被験者募集などのロジスティクス

#12 (07/27) プログラミング・被験者募集などのロジスティクス


=Summer break=

*How to conduct zTu exp*


Fall Semester

#1 (0928) Introduction

西山・新谷・川口・奥井「計量経済学」９章 （ebook, view-only, 413-479)

*モファット２章

#2 (1004) Finishing ztt

#3 (1011) Test run with 2nd-year new members

#4 (1018) Recruiting subjects

#5 (1025) Rehearsal

#6+7_A (1025) Group A running exp (4s x 3h), Mon, Thu

  • Including post-experimental cleanup & sharing the data

  • 3-4 exp'er in a session

#6+7_B Group B running exp (4s x 3h), Mon, Thu

  • Including post-experimental cleanup & sharing the data

  • 3-4 exp'er in a session

=No class=

#8 Writing style & Review of statistical tests

#9 Data analysis

#10 Data analysis

#11 Presentation x 2g

=Winter break=

*Submit the first draft*

#12 (0108 Fri.) Writing style & Review of statistical tests

#13 Writing reports

#14 Writing reports

#15 Final presentation x 2g


Extra

#? (????) Participating risk elicitation

Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. G. (2011). Individual risk attitudes: Measurement, determinants, and behavioral consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(3), 522-550.

Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., & Sunde, U. (2010). Are risk aversion and impatience related to cognitive ability?. American Economic Review, 100(3), 1238-60.

l’Haridon, O. and F. M. Vieider (2018). All over the map: A worldwide comparison of risk preferences. Quantitative Economics.

Perdorni et al. (2017) The Risk Elicitation Puzzle, Nature Human Behavior

Barseghyan, L., Prince, J., & Teitelbaum, J. C. (2011). Are risk preferences stable across contexts? Evidence from insurance data. American Economic Review, 101(2), 591-631.

#Extra (????) Field Experiment and Ethical Concern with the Design

Ge, Y., Knittel, C. R., MacKenzie, D., & Zoepf, S. (2020). Racial discrimination in transportation network companies. Journal of Public Economics, 190, 104205.

#Extra (????) その他のトピック

Bartling, B., Fehr, E., & Herz, H. (2014). The intrinsic value of decision rights. Econometrica, 82(6), 2005-2039.

*The paper which Hanaki JEBO is based on.

Dohmen, T., Falk, A., Huffman, D., Sunde, U., Schupp, J., & Wagner, G. G. (2011). Individual risk attitudes: Measurement, determinants, and behavioral consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(3), 522-550.

Figner, B., Mackinlay, R.J., Wilkening, F., & Weber, E.U. (2009). Affective and deliberative processes in risky choice: Age differences in risk taking in the Columbia Card Task. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 35, 709–730.

Bernheim, B. D., & Sprenger, C. (2020). On the Empirical Validity of Cumulative Prospect Theory: Experimental Evidence of Rank-Independent Probability Weighting. Econometrica.

l’Haridon, O. and F. M. Vieider (2018). All over the map: A worldwide comparison of risk preferences. Quantitative Economics.

Holt (2018) Ch.3

Wilcox (2008)

モファット (2018) Ch. 3.7.2

#Extra (????) Hot hand fallacy is a fallacy.

Miller, J. B., & Sanjurjo, A. (2018). Surprised by the hot hand fallacy? A truth in the law of small numbers. Econometrica, 86(6), 2019-2047.

Law of Small Numbers

#Extra (????) 最尤推定

#Extra (????) Belief Elicitation

    • Introspective Judgement

    • Quadratic Scoring Rule

    • QSR with risk attitude correction

    • Binarised Scoring Rule

    • Matching Probability

Prelec, D. (2004). A Bayesian truth serum for subjective data. science, 306(5695), 462-466.

Houssain and Okui

Palfrey and Wang

#Extra (????) 予測市場 (再)

    • 競馬の予測

    • 選挙の予測

今井 (2018) Ch. 4 大統領選の予測、見かけの相関

Snowberg and Wolfers (2010) Explaining the Favorite–Long Shot Bias, Journal of Political Economy

>Prob. weighting explain simple and exotic bets price in the US horse races better than expected utility.

Chiappori, P. A., Salanié, B., Salanié, F., & Gandhi, A. (2019). From aggregate betting data to individual risk preferences. Econometrica, 87(1), 1-36.

Harrison, G. W., Martínez-Correa, J., & Swarthout, J. T. (2015). Reduction of compound lotteries with objective probabilities: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 119, 32-55.

Ottaviani and Sørensen (2007) The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations

Healy (2010) Prediction Markets. Management Science.

#Extra (????) Ambiguity

Schneider, F. H., & Schonger, M. (2019). An experimental test of the Anscombe–Aumann monotonicity axiom. Management Science, 65(4), 1667-1677.

Hoy, M., Peter, R., & Richter, A. (2013). Take‐up for genetic tests and ambiguity. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty

Larry G Epstein, Yoram Halevy, Ambiguous Correlation, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 86, Issue 2, March 2019, Pages 668–693, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy008

#Extra (???? -> Fall #1) Preferences for truth‐telling　

Abeler, J., Nosenzo, D., & Raymond, C. (2019). Preferences for truth‐telling. Econometrica, 87(4), 1115-1153.

#Extra (????) Risk and Time

DeJarnette, P., Dillenberger, D., Gottlieb, D., & Ortoleva, P. (2020). Time lotteries and stochastic impatience. Econometrica, 88(2), 619-656.

Epper et al. (2011) find a correlation between violations of expected utility (EU) theory (the common ratio effect) and violations of discounted utility (DU) theory (hyperbolic discounting), observing that subjects who exhibit one of these biases tend to also exhibit the other.

#Extra (????) Endogenous Reference Point

Revealed (P)Reference Theory