For today you should:
For next time:
Question/dataset suggestions are here.
Collaborate? Yes, if there are groups working on similar topics, but individual coding and project writeup.
Seven weeks is short! See the schedule. You are going to need to carpe the heck out of this diem.
The following questions are adapted from Mlodinow,The Drunkard’s Walk.
You can assume that the probability that any child is a girl is 1/2, and that the children in a family are independent trials (in more ways than one). You can also assume that the percentage of girls named Florida is small.
What's the point of this example?
Are children independent trials?
A few years ago, my cousin Susan was expecting her fifth child. Her first four children were all boys. What was the probability that the fifth would be a boy?
Suppose there are two full bowls of cookies. Bowl #1 has 10 chocolate chip and 30 plain cookies, while bowl #2 has 20 of each. Our friend Fred picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Fred treats one bowl differently from another, likewise for the cookies. The cookie turns out to be a plain one. How probable is it that Fred picked it out of bowl #1?
The blue M&M was introduced in 1995. Before then, the color mix in a bag of plain M&Ms was (30% Brown, 20% Yellow, 20% Red, 10% Green, 10% Orange, 10% Tan). Afterward it was (20% Blue , 20% Green, 16% Orange, 14% Yellow, 13% Red, 13% Brown).
A friend of mine has two bags of M&Ms, and he tells me that one is from 1994 and one from 1996. He won't tell me which is which, but he gives me one M&M from each bag. One is yellow and one is green. What is the probability that the yellow M&M came from the 1994 bag?
What is the probability that Elvis was an identical twin?
If this is your idea of fun, there are more on Probably Overthinking It.
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