Dr. Fengbo Zhang – the founder of China’s GDP and Macroeconomic Research

 
In 1986, Dr. Fengbo Zhang headed the key research project of the seventh Five-Year Plan of China, completed and published the first China GDP. This research also compared Western SNA and  Soviet Union's MPS two systems. China issued “The notice regarding implementation of System of National Accounting” , the Western SNA system officially is introduced to China, replaced  Soviet Union's MPS system, Western economic indicator GDP became China’s most important economic indicator.

In 1985, the State Council of China approved the establishment of SNA (System of National Accounting), using GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to measure the national economy. China began studying the theoretical foundations, guidelines, and accounting models for establishing a new system of national economic accounting.

 

In 1986, Dr. Fengbo Zhang, the first citizen of the People's Republic of China to receive a Ph.D. in economics from an overseas country, headed Chinese Macroeconomic Research, the key research project of the seventh Five-Year Plan of China, and also completed and published the first GDP ever determined by China. More detailed information can be found in the book “Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy” (June 1988), edited by Fengbo Zhang, and collectively authored by the Research Center of the State Council of China. This is the first set of GDP data published by China. The research utilized the World Bank’s method as a reference, and made the numerous appropriate adjustments based on China’s national condition. The GDP also has been converted to USD based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate.  The research systematically completed China’s GDP and GDP per capita from 1952 to 1986 and analyzed growth rate, the change and contribution rates of each component. The research also included international comparisons. Additionally, the research compared MPS (System of Material Product balances) and SNA (System of National Accounting), looking at the results from the two systems from analyzing Chinese economy. This achievement created the foundation for Chinese GDP research.

 

Fengbo Zhang’s achievement comprehensively covered China’s macroeconomy. He published more than 10 books and hundreds of reports and research papers; however, the GDP-related contents comprise only 9 pages (Chapter 2, Section 1 in the book “Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy”).  At early stage of China’s reform, as the forerunner of Chinese Economists, he removed himself from the traditional Chinese political economy, but he also did not attach himself solely to Western economic theory.  Instead, he incorporated the essence of both theories and focused his research on the newest achievements of economic structure and policies of various countries. Basing it on comprehensive research of Chinese economic structure, operation law, and policy, he created a completely new Chinese macroeconomic analysis theory and method, unique for its usage of personal computing technology, forming a significant feature of Chinese Economics, especially economic policy research.

 

The June 1988 version of Fengbo Zhang’s book, Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy,” published the earliest China GDP data.  Chapter 2 Section 1 of the book revealed China GDP data from 1952 to 1986 and the research results, forming the foundation for China’s GDP research. Based on this research, in 1997, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in collaboration with Hitotsubashi University of Japan, estimated China’s GDP Data from 1952 to 1995 based on the SNA principal. When Fengbo Zhang’s GDP data and the new China GDP data are compared, both are very consistent; each year’s deviation rate is very slight, between only 0.1% and 7%.

 

In 1985, the State Council of China approved to establish a SNA (System of National Accounting), use the GDP to measure the national economy. China started the study of theoretical foundation, guiding, and accounting model for establishing a new system of national economic accounting. In 1986, Dr. Fengbo Zhang headed Chinese Macroeconomic Research - the key research project of the seventh Five-Year Plan of China, as well as completing and publishing the China GDP data by China's own research. The summary of the above has been included in the book "Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy" (June 1988) edited by Fengbo Zhang, and collectively authored by the Research Center of the State Council of China. This is the first GDP data which was published by China. This achievement created the foundation for China's GDP research. The State Council of China issued “The notice regarding implementation of System of National Accounting” in August 1992, the SNA system officially is introduced to China, replaced Soviet Union's MPS system, Western economic indicator GDP became China’s most important economic indicator. Based on this research, in 1997, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in collaboration with Hitotsubashi University of Japan, re-estimated China’s GDP Data from 1952 upto 1995 based on the SNA principal.

Sources: WikiChina: China GDP

 

When comparing Fengbo Zhang’s GDP measurement in the 1980s and the GDP in 1997 by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Japan’s cooperative research, the two are found to be very consistent; the deviation rate each year is very slight, between only 0.1% and 7%. During this period, there were many data adjustments, with weighting factors undergoing significant changes along with each years comparable price amendments, statistical method significant changes result in the substantial deviation. Even with science and technology as advanced as it is today, the single item survey is allowed at least +-3%, or a total of 6% deviation. Despite the extremely difficult conditions of a destroyed economy, blank theory, a lack of data, and simple methods in 1980s, there is so little deviation for such a long period of time and the comprehensiveness of the national economic indicator, indicates that the research conducted by Fengbo Zhang with the support of the extensive group he trained is extremely rigorous, and their result very precise. (www.people.com.cn).

 

 
GDP of China
(mil. Chinese Yuan)
 
GDP of China
 
(US$)
Year
GDP
Year
GDP
Period
Growth
 
Year
GDP
GDP per
Year
GDP
GDP per
Rate
 
(10 mil.US$)
Capita (US$)
(10 mil.US$)
Capita (US$)
1952
68,090
1970
222,650
 
1952
2,854
49.7
1970
9,045
109.0
1953
81,960
1971
240,100
1953~1957
8.88%
 
1953
3,279
55.8
1971
10,049
117.9
1954
86,470
1972
246,920
 
1954
3,368
55.9
1972
11,063
126.9
1955
91,090
1973
267,960
1958~1960
9.19%
 
1955
3,621
58.9
1973
12,975
145.4
1956
101,960
1974
271,430
 
 
1956
4,138
65.9
1974
14,014
154.2
1957
104,960
1975
290,100
1961~1965
-0.17%
 
1957
4,264
65.9
1975
15,103
163.4
1958
129,240
1976
281,290
 
1958
5,250
79.6
1976
14,912
159.2
1959
141,260
1977
304,640
1966~1978
6.62%
 
1959
5,738
85.4
1977
16,767
176.5
1960
141,030
1978
348,860
 
1960
5,729
86.5
1978
20,536
213.3
1961
115,130
1979
389,270
1979~1986
8.76%
 
1961
4,677
71.0
1979
24,653
252.7
1962
106,810
1980
428,550
 
 
1962
4,339
64.5
1980
27,019
273.7
1963
115,600
1981
457,850
1953 ~1986
6.64%
 
1963
4,696
67.9
1981
26,955
269.4
1964
134,790
1982
495,980
 
1964
5,475
77.7
1982
26,700
262.9
1965
160,340
1983
550,570
 
 
1965
6,513
89.8
1983
26,663
260.1
1966
183,340
1984
655,330
 
1966
7,447
99.9
1984
27,157
262.4
1967
171,890
1985
796,130
 
1967
6,983
91.4
1985
27,401
262.1
1968
163,570
1986
909,090
 
 
1968
6,644
84.6
 
 
 
1969
186,920
 
 
1969
7,593
94.1
 
 
 
Source: Fengbo Zhang/Research Center of the State Council of China“Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy” (June 1988) . 

Book Description

 This book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. This article includes a list of China's historical gross domestic product values, the market value of all final goods and services produced by a nation in a given year. The GDP dollar estimates presented here are calculated at market or government official exchange rates and derived from purchasing power parity calculations. This article also includes historical GDP growth. In 1985, the State Council of China approved to establish a SNA, use the GDP to measure the national economy. China started the study of theoretical foundation, guiding, and accounting model etc., for establishing a new system of national economic accounting. In 1986, as the first citizen of the People's Republic of China to receive a Ph.D. in economics from an overseas country, Dr. Fengbo Zhang headed Chinese Macroeconomic Research - the key research project of the seventh Five-Year Plan of China, as well as completing and publishing the China GDP data by China's own research.
Source: Amazon