The Model

$1000 off of a new Tesla Model S or X

  • I used 5% b/c that's what I learned in b-school and they still use 5%.
  • I live in California/Silicon Valley.  So gas and electricity is set accordingly.  Feel free to copy the model and plug in your own numbers.  I didn't take into account TOU rates or solar (I might add a solar tab later).  And while I charge most of the time at work for free, I assumed in this model that all of my charging was at home.
  • The price for the new Model S is for an S85 in blue metallic w/ obeche matte, tan leather, pano, supercharging, twin chargers, rear-facing seats, and parcel shelf.
  • As omgwtfbyobbq on TMC noted, all of these numbers - including NPV - should technically have a negative sign in front of them.  I was just lazy and got tired of typing in negative numbers everywhere.
  • Electricity is currently at 3 mi/kWh or 333 Wh/mi.  omgwtfbyobbq also noted that the draw from the wall might be higher.  I'll adjust it when I get a good number.  Feel free to suggest one.  Update: TMC folks suggest using EPA figures to account for wall draw.  More below.
  • Combined EPA ratings for Ody and Tesla.  I used the combined rating for the Ody and a lower-than-EPA rating for the Tesla to be conservative.
  • For Tesla residual, this McKinsey article is one reason for the $30K value in 2022 (forecasts $/kWh falling from $600 in 2012 to $200 in 2020, or $17K for an 85kWh battery).
  • And, as noted in the previous tab, because I was lazy and for other reasons, I left out insurance, and didn't try to quantify safety, HOV lane access, cargo space, and other features.
  • Here's a direct link to the spreadsheet if you want to make a copy and play around with stuff.

Car cost NPV comps