## ハンス・ロスリング　最高の統計を披露

Hans Rosling: Stats that reshape your worldview

（興味があれば読んでください）

## 英文日本語訳資料

10年ほど前

I took on the task to teach global development to Swedish undergraduate students.

That was after having spent about 20 years together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,

so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.

And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,

an undergraduate course called Global Health.
「世界保健」という 学部の授業を持つことになりました

But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.
しかしやる段になって 不安になりました

I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get in Swedish college systems
スウェーデンでも最も成績優秀な 学生たちが相手です

-- so, I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.

So I did a pre-test when they came.
そこで最初に小テストをやることにしました

And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
その時の質問は 私に多くのことを教えてくれました

"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"
“この5組のそれぞれについて 乳幼児死亡率が高い方を選べ”

And I put them together, so that in each pair of country, one has twice the child mortality of the other.

And this means that it's much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of the data.

I won't put you at a test here,

but it's Turkey, which is highest there,Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.

And these were the results of the Swedish students.
これがスウェーデンの学生の成績です

I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy, of course:

a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.
5点満点で平均1.8です

That means that there was a place for a professor of international health
これなら 世界保健の教授の居場所があります

-- (Laughter) and for my course.

But one late night, when I was compiling the report I really realized my discovery.
しかしその結果について 本当に理解したのは 夜遅く その答案をまとめている時でした

I have shown that Swedish top students know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.(Laughter)
スウェーデンの学生の世界の知識は 統計的有意に チンパンジーより低い ということです (笑)

Because the chimpanzee would score half right if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.
チンパンジーはバナナを2本もやれば スリランカかトルコか 半分の場合は正しい方を選ぶでしょう

They would be right half of the cases.
スウェーデンの学生はもっと下です

But the students are not there. The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.

I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute (Laughter)

-- that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
ノーベル医学賞を授与する人たちが

and they are on par with the chimpanzee there. (Laughter)
チンパンジー並みだったのです （笑）

This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,
コミュニケーションの必要性を実感しました

because the data of what's happening in the world and the child health of every country is very well aware.

We did this software which displays it like this: every bubble here is a country.
それで ご覧のようなソフトを作りました 丸はそれぞれ国を表しています

This country over here is China. This is India.
これは中国で これはインドです

The size of the bubble is the population, and on this axis here I put fertility rate.

Because my students, what they said when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,

"What do you really think about the world?" Well,
“世界を実際どう思っているの？”

I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly. (Laughter)
彼らの知識は「タンタンの冒険旅行」から来ているのが分かりました （笑）

And they said,

"The world is still 'we' and 'them.' And we is Western world and them is Third World."
学生たちは いまだ世界を「我々」と「彼ら」に分け 我々「西欧世界」 彼ら「第三世界」と考えています

"And what do you mean with Western world?"
私は聞きました “その「西欧世界」というのは何？”

I said. "Well, that's long life and small family, and Third World is short life and large family."
“長生きで小家族なのがそうです 短命で大家族なのが第三世界です”

So this is what I could display here.
これをご覧ください

I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman:

one, two,three, four, up to about eight children per woman.
1人、2人、3人、4人から8人まで

We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries.
1962年以降の 各国の家族の大きさについては とても良いデータがあります

The error margin is narrow.

Here I put life expectancy at birth,

from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years. And 1962,
30歳くらいから 上は70歳くらいまであります

there was really a group of countries here that was industrialized countries,
1962年には 実際こういう国のグループがありました

and they had small families and long lives.

And these were the developing countries:
そしてこっちは発展途上国

Now what has happened since 1962?
そして1962年以降何が起きたのか？

We want to see the change.

Are the students right?

Is it still two types of countries?

Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
それとも発展途上国が小家族になって この辺にいるのか？

Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
あるいは長寿になって この上にいるのか？

Let's see.  We stopped the world then.

This is all U.N. statistics that have been available.
データには利用可能な 国連の 統計を使っています

Here we go.
では見てみましょう

Can you see there? It's China there,
これは中国

moving against better health there, improving there.
より健康な社会へと改善していきます

All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.

Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries, and they get larger families,

but they -- no, longer life, but not larger families.

The Africans are the green down here. They still remain here.

This is India. Indonesia's moving on pretty fast. (Laughter)
インドに インドネシア とても速く動いています （笑）

And in the '80s here,
80年代に入ります

you have Bangladesh still among the African countries there.
バングラデシュはずっと  アフリカ諸国と一緒でしたが

But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s:
ここで奇跡が起きます

the imams start to promote family planning.
イマームが家族計画を推進し 左上に上がっていきます

They move up into that corner. And in '90s,
90年代に

we have the terrible HIV epidemic that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries
ひどいHIVの流行があり アフリカ諸国の平均余命が下がります

and all the rest of them move up into the corner,

where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world. (Applause)

Let me make a comparison directly between the United States of America and Vietnam.

1964: America had small families and long life; Vietnam had large families and short lives.
1964年 米国は小家族で長寿 一方ベトナムは大家族で短命です

And this is what happens:
その後こうなります

the data during the war indicate that even with all the death,
戦争中のデータを見ると 戦争による多くの死者にも関わらず

there was an improvement of life expectancy.

By the end of the year, the family planning started in Vietnam

and they went for smaller families.

And the United States up there is getting for longer life, keeping family size.

And in the '80s now, they give up communist planning
ベトナムは80年代に 計画経済を捨てて市場経済になり

and they go for market economy,

and it moves faster even than social life.
そして今日 2003年のベトナムの平均余命と

And today,

we have in Vietnam the same life expectancy and the same family size here in Vietnam,
ベトナム戦争末 1974年の米国と同じ水準になりました

2003, as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.

I think we all -- if we don't look in the data --
データを見なければ

we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia, which was in social change before we saw the economical change.

Let's move over to another way here in which we could display the distribution in the world of the income.

This is the world distribution of income of people.
これは世界の人々の所得の分配を示しています

One dollar,10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.

There's no gap between rich and poor any longer.
もはや豊かな国と貧しい国の間にギャップはありません

This is a myth. There's a little hump here. But there are people all the way.

And if we look where the income ends up -- the income

-- this is 100 percent the world's annual income.
これが世界の年間所得の100％です

And the richest 20 percent, they take out of that about 74 percent.

And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.
そして最も貧しい20%が 2%を手にしています

And this shows that the concept of developing countries is extremely doubtful.
これを見ると 発展途上国という概念は  非常に疑わしいことが分かります

We think about aid, like these people here giving aid to these people here.

But in the middle, we have most the world population, and they have now 24 percent of the income.
しかし真ん中の 最も人口の多い部分が 今や24%の所得を得ているのです

We heard it in other forms. And who are these? Where are the different countries?
この人たちは誰なのでしょう？ それぞれの国はどこにあたるのでしょう？

I can show you Africa. This is Africa.
まずアフリカです これがアフリカ

10 percent the world population, most in poverty.

This is OECD. The rich country. The country club of the U.N.
これはOECD諸国 豊かな国々 国連のカントリークラブです

And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
この部分で アフリカとOECDの間に 結構重なりがあります

And this is Latin America.
これは南アメリカ

It has everything on this Earth, from the poorest to the richest, in Latin America.

And on top of that, we can put East Europe, we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.
さらに重ねて 東欧、東アジア、 南アジア

And how did it look like if we go back in time, to about 1970?

Then there was more of a hump.

And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.

The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.

And if I now let the world move forward, you will see that while population increase,
時間を進めていくと 人口が増加していき

there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty
アジアでは 何億という人々が貧困から抜け出し

and some others getting into poverty,

and this is the pattern we have today.
これが現在のパターンです

And the best projection from the World Bank is that this will happen,

and we will not have a divided world. We'll have most people in the middle.

Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,
これはもちろん対数目盛です

but our concept of economy is growth with percent.

We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.

If I change this, and I take GDP per capita instead of family income,

and I turn these individual data into regional data of gross domestic product,
それぞれのデータを 地域のGDPに変えます

and I take the regions down here, the size of the bubble is still the population.

And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
OECDがここで サハラ以南のアフリカがここです

and we take off the Arab states there, coming both from Africa and from Asia, and we put them separately,
アラブ諸国を アフリカやアジアと分けて別にしましょう

and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,
横軸を引き伸ばし 次元をもう1つ追加します

by adding the social values there, child survival.

Now I have money on that axis,

and I have the possibility of children to survive there.

In some countries, 99.7 percent of children survive to five years of age;
ある国々では99.7％の子どもが5歳以上まで生きられます

others, only 70.

And here it seems there is a gap between OECD, Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
ここにギャップがあるように見えます  OECD、南アメリカ、東欧、東アジア

Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
アラブ諸国、南アジア、サハラ以南のアフリカ

The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.

But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.
サハラ以南のアフリカをバラしてみましょう

Health is there and better health is up there.

I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
サハラ以南アフリカを国に分けました

And when it burst, the size of its country bubble is the size of the population.
それぞれの円の大きさは国の人口を表しています

Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there.
シエラレオネがここ モーリシャスがあそこにあります

Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers,
モーリシャスは貿易障壁を最初に解除した国で

and they could sell their sugar -- they could sell their textiles -- on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.

There's a huge difference between Africa.
アフリカの国の間にも大きな差があるのです

And Ghana is here in the middle.
ガーナは真ん中あたり

In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
シエラネオネは人道的支援を受けています

Here in Uganda,development aid. Here,
ウガンダは開発支援を受けています

time to invest; there,
この辺は投資できます

you can go for a holiday.
ここでは休暇を過ごせます

It's a tremendous variation within Africa which we rarely often make --
アフリカには大きな幅があるのに

that it's equal everything.

I can split South Asia here.

India's the big bubble in the middle.

But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
アフガニスタンとスリランカでは 大変大きな違いがあります

I can split Arab states. How are they?
アラブ諸国を分割してみましょう どうなるでしょう？

Same climate, same culture, same religion -- huge difference.

Even between neighbors.

Yemen, civil war.
イエメンは内戦

United Arab Emirate, money which was quite equally and well used. Not as the myth is.
アラブ首長国連邦では

And that includes all the children of the foreign workers who are in the country.

Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.

There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:

Cambodia, Singapore. The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.
このカンボジアとシンガポールの差は データの問題を はるかに超えています

East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,

but they come out after 10 years very,very differently.

And there is Latin America. Today, we don't have to go to Cuba to find a healthy country in Latin America.

Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.
チリは数年のうちに 子供の死亡率の低さでキューバを抜きそうです

And here we have high-income countries in the OECD.
こちらは高所得なOECD諸国です

And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
これが世界全体のパターンです

which is more or less like this.
だいたいこんな感じになっています

And if we look at it, how it looks -- the world, in 1960, it starts to move.1960.
1960年の世界を見てみましょう  動き始めます

This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China.
これは毛沢東です 中国に健康をもたらしました

And then he died.

And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,

and brought them into the mainstream again.

And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,
このようにそれぞれの国が違った方向に動いています

so it's sort of difficult to get an example country which shows the pattern of the world.
ですから 世界の典型的なパターンを示す 国の例を挙げるというのは難しいのです

But I would like to bring you back to about here at 1960.
また1960年に戻しましょう

I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil, which is this one.
ここにある韓国と こちらにあるブラジルを比較してみましょう

The label went away for me here. And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.

And I can run it forward, like this.

And you can see how South Korea is making a very,

very fast advancement, whereas Brazil is much slower.
それに比べるとブラジルはずっとゆっくりです

And if we move back again, here,
また最初に戻って

and we put on trails on them, like this,

you can see again that the speed of development is very, very different,
もう一度実行すると 発展の速度が 大きく異なるのが分かります

and the countries are moving more or less in the same rate as money and health,
そして経済と保健は だいたいのところ同じ割合で変化しています

but it seems you can move much faster if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
しかし経済より保健が先に来る場合に 動きがずっと速いのが分かります

And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirate.
それが良くわかるように アラブ首長国連邦を加えてみましょう

They came from here, a mineral country.

They cached all the oil;

they got all the money; but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.

You have to invest in health.

You have to get kids into schooling.
子どもたちを学校で教えなければなりません

You have to train health staff.
医療スタッフを育て

You have to educate the population.

And Sheikh Sayed did that in a fairly good way.

In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.

So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
だから世界の主流の状況としては

where all countries tend to use their money better than they used in the past.

Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries -- they are like this.
これは各国をその平均で見た場合です

Now that's dangerous, to use average data,
でも平均データを使うのは危険があります

because there is such a lot of difference within countries.

So if I go and look here, we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was 1960.
これを見ると 現在のウガンダは 1960年に韓国がいた場所にいます

If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda.
ウガンダを分けると 国内に大きな差があります

These are the quintiles of Uganda. The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
ウガンダで最も富裕な20%がここ

The poorest are down there.

If I split South Africa, it's like this.

And if I go down and look at Niger, where there was such a terrible famine, lastly, it's like this.

The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here, and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
ニジェールの最貧の20％はここで 南アフリカの最も豊かな20％はここです

and yet we tend to discuss on what solutions there should be in Africa.
それなのに私たちは アフリカに対する解決策は どうあるべきかと議論しています

Everything in this world exists in Africa.
アフリカには世界の全てがあります

And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [medicine] for that quintile up here with the same strategy as down here.
HIV対策について こっちの20%と一緒の議論をこっちの20%にはできないのです

The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,

and it's not relevant to have it on regional level.

We must be much more detailed.

We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
このツールを使わせると 学生がとてもワクワクするのに気づきました

And even more policy makers and the corporate sectors would like to see how the world is changing.

Now, why doesn't this take place?
ではなぜ それが実現しないのでしょう？

Why are we not using the data we have?
なぜ 既に持っているデータを使おうとしないのか？

We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies and in universities and other non-governmental organizations.

Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
それはデータが隠されているからです

And the public is there, and the Internet is there,

but we have still not used it effectively.
データは有効に使われていません

All that information we saw changing in the world does not include publicly-funded statistics.

There are some web pages like this, you know,
ある種のウェブページはあります

but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
データベースから養分を取っているわけですが

but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics. (Laughter) (Applause)

And this won't work.
これではうまくいきません

So what is needed? We have the databases.

It's not the new database you need.

We have wonderful design tools,

and more and more are added up here.
どんどん増えています

So we started a nonprofit venture which we called -- linking data to design
ですから私たちは データをデザインに結び付ける 非営利のベンチャーを始めました

-- we call it Gapminder,
Gapminderです

from the London underground, where they warn you, "mind the gap." So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
ロンドン地下鉄の“MIND THE GAP” (隙間にご注意ください)から名前を取りました

And we started to write software which could link the data like this.

And it wasn't that difficult. It took some person years,
そんなに難しくはありません 数人年です

and we have produced animations. You can take a data set and put it there.
それでデータを引き出し アニメーションできるようになりました

We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization.
いくつか国連機関のデータも解放しました

Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world,
いくつかの国は データを世界に公開することに同意しています

but what we really need is, of course, a search function.
しかし本当に必要なのは検索機能です

A search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format and get it out in the world.
データを検索可能な形にして公開し 自由に検索できるようにしなければなりません

And what do we hear when we go around?
そのために世界を回って どんな言葉を耳にするでしょう？

I've done anthropology on the main statistical units. Everyone says,

"It's impossible. This can't be done.
みんな同じことを言います “不可能です

Our information is so peculiar in detail,
うちの情報は特殊ですから”

so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
“よそのデータのように検索可能にするのは無理です”

We cannot give the data free to the students, free to the entrepreneurs of the world."
“学生や世界の起業家に データを無料で提供はできません”

But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?
しかし私はそうしたいのです

The publicly-funded data is down here.

And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net.
それがネット上で花開くのを見たいのです

And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable,

and then people can use the different design tool to animate it there.

And I have a pretty good news for you.

I have a good news that the present, new Head of U.N. Statistics,

he doesn't say it's impossible.

He only says, "We can't do it." (Laughter)

And that's a quite clever guy, huh? (Laughter)
なかなか頭の良い人ですよね？ （笑）

So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.

We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.

This is the income distribution of China, 1970.

the income distribution of the United States, 1970.

Almost no overlap. Almost no overlap.
ほとんど重なりはありません

And what has happened? What has happened is this: that China is growing,
その後どうなったでしょう？ こうなります 中国は成長し

it's not so equal any longer,

and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States.
そしてこのような位置に 米国のすぐ背後に迫っています

Almost like a ghost, isn't it, huh? (Laughter)
なんだか お化けのようですね （笑）

It's pretty scary.

But I think it's very important to have all this information.
このような情報を持つのは大変重要だと思います

We need really to see it.

And instead of looking at this, I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000.

In this software, we access about 500 variables from all the countries quite easily.
このソフトを使うと 世界の国々の500種のデータに 容易にアクセスできます

It takes some time to change for this, but on the axises, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.

And the thing would be to get up the databases free, to get them searchable,

and with a second click, to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.
そうすれば クリックするだけで グラフに変えて 即座に理解できるようになります

Now, statisticians doesn't like it,

because they say that this will not show the reality;

we have to have statistical, analytical methods.

But this is hypothesis-generating.
しかし これで仮説生成ができるのです

I end now with the world. There, the Internet is coming.
インターネットが現れ

The number of Internet users are going up like this.
インターネットにアクセスする ユーザ数が増えていきます

This is the GDP per capita.

And it's a new technology coming in,

but then amazingly, how well it fits to the economy of the countries.
それが驚くほど 国の経済力に対応しています

That's why the 100 dollar computer will be so important.
だからこそ100ドルPCが 重要なのです

But it's a nice tendency.
ここには良い傾向が見えます

It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it?

These countries are lifting more than the economy
これらの国々は 経済以上に上昇しており

and will be very interesting to follow this over the year,

as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.
みんながすべての公的データを 使えるようになることを願っています （拍手）

Thank you very much. (Applause)

hunger

sort of

confidence

interval

statistically

ignorance

preconceive

par

look upon

expectancy

communist

underestimate

distribution

doubtful

hump
こぶ、背こぶ

logarithmic

percentile

linearity

tremendous
ものすごい

relevant

nourishment

anthropology

crucial

hypothesis