Taisuke Nakata

I am a senior economist in the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve Board (Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies Section).

I graduated from New York University with a Ph.D. in Economics in May 2012.

My research interest are Macroeconomics, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Applied Econometrics.

Email: taisuke.nakata [at] frb.gov

CV (Last updated on March 2017)     Google Scholar Profile

Working Papers

"
Conservatism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt (Resubmitted to Journal of Monetary Economics
; The latest version available upon request)

"Reputation and Liquidity Traps'' (Resubmitted to Review of Economic Dynamics; See "Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound'' for a non-technical summary)

"The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Timothy Hills and Sebastian Schmidt (Submitted; FEDS version; Featured in a Bloomberg article and a Reuters article; See "The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off'' for a non-technical summary)

"The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule" with Sebastian Schmidt (Submitted)

"Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy" with Andrea Ajello, Thomas Laubach、and David Lopez-Salido (Submitted; Cited by Stanley Fischer [October 2015, January 2016]; Reviewed in a blog entry by Ben Bernanke)

"Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Hiroatsu Tanaka
(Submitted)

Work in Progress

"Gradualism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt

"A Promised-Value Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy" with Timothy Hills and Takeki Sunakawa

Publication

"Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia'' with Timothy Hills, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.

"Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
, forthcoming. [WP version (2016);
WP version (2012); Replication Files; Cited by Janet Yellen (March 2015, December 2015, March 2016)]

"Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics (2017), Vol. 23: 150-169. [WP version (2016); Technical Appendix (2016); WP version (2015); Replications Files]

"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Occasionally Binding Zero Bound Constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2016), Vol. 73: 220-240. [WP version (2016); WP version (2013); Replication Files; Cited in a speech by Janet Yellen)

"Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Estimators of Labor Income Processes'' with Christopher Tonetti, Journal of Applied Economics (2015), Vol. 18(1): 121-148. [WP version (2014)]

"Welfare Costs of Shifting Trend Inflation,'' Journal of Macroeconomics (2014), Vol. 41: 66-78.  [WP version (2013)]

"Enhancing Market Discipline in Banking: The Role of Subordinated Debt in Financial Regulatory Reform'' with Douglas Evanoff and Julapa Jagtiani, Journal of Economics and Business (2011), Vol. 63(1): 1-22.

Non-Refereed Publication

"The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off'', FEDS Notes 02-12-2016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2016.

"Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound'', FEDS Notes 08-27-2015, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2015. [Click here for a pdf version]

"Canada: A Success Story,'' with Lucy Liu and Cemile Sancack, in Chipping Away At Public Debt: Sources of Failure and Keys to Success in Fiscal Adjustment, ed. Paolo Mauro. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,  2011

"When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle?: A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances'' with F. Bornhorst, G. Dobrescu, A. Fedelino, and J. Gottschalk, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals, April 2011

"Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2008

"The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present, and Future,'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2006

Invited Discussions

"Optimal Forward Guidance'' by Florin Bilbiie, International Workshop on Monetary Policy when Heterogeneity Matters, l'EHESS, February 2017.

"Threshold-Based Forward Guidance: Hedging the Zero Bound'' by Richard Harrison, Lena Korber, and Matthew Waldron, Workshop on Deflation - Causes, Consequences, and Policies, Sveriges Riksbank, June 2015.

"Endogenous Volatility at the Zero Lower Bound'' by Susanto Basu and Brent Bundick, the Federal Reserve System Macro Conference, November 2014.

"Nonlinear Adventures at the Zero Lower Bound'' by Jesus Fernandez-Villarverde, Grey Gordon, Pablo Guerron-Quintana, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez, the Joint Central Bank Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 2013.