I am an Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Economics and the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo.
I graduated from New York University with a Ph.D. in Economics in May 2012.
My research interests are Macroeconomics, Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Public Health.
Email: taisuke.nakata [at] e.u-tokyo.ac.jp or taisuke.nakata [at] gmail.com
CV (Last updated on December 2022) Google Scholar Profile Teaching
Working Papers
"Equilibrium Yield Curves and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Hiroatsu Tanaka (R&R at Review of Economic Dynamics)
"Speed Limit Policy and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt and Paul Yoo (R&R at Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking)
"Monetary Policy Options at the Effective Lower Bound: Assessing the Federal Reserve's Current Policy Toolkit" with Hess Chung, Etienne Gagnon, Matthias Paustian, Bernd Schlusche, James Trevino, Diego Vilan, and Wei Zheng (2nd round R&R at International Journal of Central Banking)
[Cited by Vice Chair Clarida [February 2019]; Original version presented at the August 2018 FOMC meeting]
"Optimal Inflation Target with Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps" with Philip Coyle
"Deflationary Equilibrium with Uncertainty" with Philip Coyle, Naoki Maezono, and Sebastian Schmidt; Slides
"COVID-19 and Suicide in Japan" with Quentin Batista, Daisuke Fujii, and Takeki Sunakawa
"Understanding Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Health and Economic Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Revealed-Preference Approach" with Daisuke Fujii, Sohta Kawawaki, Yuta Maeda, and Masataka Mori; Slides
"COVID-19 Infection and Its Labor Supply Impact: Evidence from a Large-scale Survey in Japan" with Asako Chiba, Shunsuke Hori, Shusaku Sasaki, and Reo Takaku
"Quarantine and Its Scar on Labor" with Asako Chiba and Shunsuke Hori
Work in Progress
"Prevalence and Duration of COVID-19 Symptoms: Evidence from a Retrospective Survey of Infected Workers in Tokyo" with Noahisa Shobako, Asako Chiba, and Reo Takaku
"Uneven Normalization: Evidence from a Mask Survey'' with Kei Shimazawa and Reo Takaku
"Masks and Social Norms'' with Hirofumi Kurokawa and Shusaku Sasaki
"The Effects of Infection Containment Policies with Weak Legal Enforcement'' with Shuhei Kitamura
"Real-Time COVID Projections in Japan: Lessons for the Future Pandemic'' with Jianing Chu and Hongtao Li
"Lockdown Policy Rules with Hospital Capacity Constraint'' with Hongtao Li, Yuta Maeda, Hiroki Sakamoto, and Hiroyuki Uneya
"A Multi-Sector Inout-Output Model with Decreasing Returns to Scale in Production: Theory and Application" with Hiroyuki Asai and Daisuke Fujii
"Post-COVID Inflation Expectations'' with Yoshiyuki Nakazono and Kento Tango
"Support for Fiscal Consolidation in a Highly-Indebted Society'' with Takuji Fueki, Masashi Hino, and Munechika Katayama
"The Perceived Government Budget Constraint'' with Takuji Fueki, Masashi Hino, Mitsuru Katagiri, and Munechika Katayama
"Correcting COVID-19 Risk Misperceptions via Information Provision'' with Asako Chiba, Kazuya Haganuma, Thuy Linh Nguyen, and Reo Takaku
"Qualitative Information and COVID-19 Risk Perceptions'' with Asako Chiba, Kazuya Haganuma, Thuy Linh Nguyen, and Reo Takaku
"Policy Preference in a Pandemic: Evidence from Japan'' with Reona Hayashi, So Morikawa, Thuy Linh Nguyen, Takeshi Ojima, Jacob Sano, and Manami Tsuruta
"Optimal Lockdown Policy with the Possibility of Virus Mutation'' with Quentin Batista, Masakazu Emoto, and Naoki Maezono
"Optimal Lockdown Policy with Evolving Economic Structures' with Quentin Batista, Kazuya Haganuma, and Sohta Kawawaki
"Optimal Lockdown Policy with Uncertainty'' with Quentin Batista, Masakazu Emoto, and Naoki Maezono
"Optimal Lockdown Policy with Finite-Horizon Planning'' with Quentin Batista and Takeshi Ojima
"Dating and Marriage: A Flow Analysis" with Asako Chiba and Naoki Maezono
"Assortativity in Dating: Evidence from a Retrospective Survey" with Asako Chiba and Kazuya Haganuma
Publication in Economics
"The Effects of Hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games on COVID-19 in Tokyo: Ex-Ante Analyses" with Asako Chiba, Daisuke Fujii, Yuta Maeda, Masataka Mori, Kenichi Nagasawa, and Wataru Okamoto (Forthcoming in Japanese Economic Review)
[Cited by BBC, Bloombeg, Financial Times, WSJ, Asahi, Mainichi, Nikkei, Nikkei, Nikkei, Sankei, TV Asahi, Nihon TV, Tokyo TV, among others.]
"Monthly Prefecture-Level GDP in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii and Takeki Sunakawa, Japanese Economic Review, 2025.
"Cross-Regional Heterogeneity in Health and Economic Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Analysis of Japan" with Shotaro Beppu, Daisuke Fujii, Hiroyuki Kubota, Kohei Machi, Yuta Maeda, and Haruki Shibuya, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 70. 101275. 2023.
"Credible Forward Guidance" with Quentin Batista and Takeki Sunakawa, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 153. 104699. 2023. [2019 FEDS version], [Slides]
"Average Inflation Targeting and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" with Flora Budianto and Sebastian Schmidt, European Economic Review, Vol. 152. 2023.
"Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy" with Sebastian Schmidt, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 14(4): 68-103. 2022. [2019 FEDS version]
"Covid-19 and Output in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii, Japanese Economic Review, Special Issue: SIR Model and Macroeconomics of COVID-19. 2021. [Cited by Nikkei, Asahi, NHK, and Nihon TV, among many others.]
"A Promised Value Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy" with Timothy Hills and Takeki Sunakawa, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83(1): 176-198. 2021.
"Effective Lower Bound Risk" with Timothy Hills and Sebastian Schmidt, European Economic Review, Vol. 120. 2019.
[This paper supersedes two older papers, (i) "The Risky Steady State and the Interest Rate Lower Bound" and (ii) "The Risk-Adjusted Monetary Policy Rule." The former paper is featured in a Bloomberg article and a Reuters article and is cited by Vice Chair Clarida (February 2019). The latter is cited by Gov. Brainard (September 2017, October 2017, March 2018, May 2018)]
"Attenuating the Forward Guidance Puzzle: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy" with Ryota Ogaki, Sebastian Schmidt, and Paul Yoo, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 105: 90-106. 2019.
"Conservatism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 104: 37-47. 2019. [2014 FEDS version]
"Gradualism and Liquidity Traps" with Sebastian Schmidt, Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 31: 182-199. 2019. [2016 FEDS version]
"Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy" with Andrea Ajello, Thomas Laubach, and David Lopez-Salido, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 15(1): 279-326. 2019.
[Cited by Vice Chair Quarles (June 2019); Cited by Stanley Fischer (October 2015, January 2016); Reviewed in a blog entry by Ben Bernanke]
"Reputation and Liquidity Traps,'' Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 28: 252-268. 2018. [WP version (2014); See "Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound'' for a non-technical summary]
"Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia'' with Timothy Hills, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 50(1): 155-172. 2018. [WP version (2014)]
"Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 9(3): 186-221. 2017.
[WP version (2016); WP version (2012); Replication Files; Cited by Janet Yellen (March 2015, December 2015, March 2016)]
"Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 23: 150-169. 2017. [WP version (2016); Technical Appendix (2016); WP version (2015); Replications Files]
"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Occasionally Binding Zero Bound Constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 73: 220-240. 2016.
[WP version (2016); WP version (2013); Replication Files; Cited in a speech by Janet Yellen)
"Small Sample Properties of Bayesian Estimators of Labor Income Processes'' with Christopher Tonetti, Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 18(1): 121-148. 2015. [WP version (2014)]
"Welfare Costs of Shifting Trend Inflation,'' Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 41: 66-78. 2014. [WP version (2013)]
"Enhancing Market Discipline in Banking: The Role of Subordinated Debt in Financial Regulatory Reform'' with Douglas Evanoff and Julapa Jagtiani, Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 63(1): 1-22. 2011.
Publication in Non-Economics Fields
"COVID-19 Risk Perceptions in Japan: A Cross-Sectional Study" with Asako Chiba, Thuy Linh Nguyen, and Reo Takaku, Scientific Reports, 14:16862. 2024.
"Three Years of COVID-19-related School Restrictions and Mental Health of Children and Adolescents in Japan" with Naohisa Shobako and Reo Takaku, Scientific Reports, 14:16707. 2024.
"Optimal Vaccine Allocation Strategy: Theory and Application to the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Japan" with Daisuke Fujii and Toshikazu Kuniya, Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, Volume 21, Issue 6: 6359-6371. 2024.
"Heterogeneous Risk Attitudes and Waves of Infection" with Daisuke Fujii and Takeshi Ojima, PLoS ONE 19(4): e0299813. 2024.
"Population-Level Immunity for Transient Suppression of COVID-19 Waves in Japan from April 2021 to September 2022" with Sachiko Kodera, Haruto Ueta, Tasuo Unemi, and Akimasa Hirata, Vaccines, Special Issue: COVID-19: Epidemiology and Transmission. 2023.
Non-Refereed Publication
"Theory and Practice in Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Approach" (In Preparation: Nihon-Hyoron-Sha)
"Prefecture-Level Projections for COVID-19 Hospital Bed Demand in Japan" with Kazuya Haganuma and Wataru Okamoto (Forthcoming in Social Simulation of COVID-19 with AI in Japan)
"Projections of COVID-19 Severity and Case Fatality Rates in Tokyo: Real-Time Analysis and Ex-post Assessment" with Wataru Okamoto (Forthcoming in Social Simulation of COVID-19 with AI in Japan)
"The Effects of Reopening the Border on Covid-19 Infection: A Simulation Study for Japan in the Summer of 2022" with Asako Chiba, Alexander Magro, Wataru Okamoto, Dai Sasaki, and Hiroyuki Uneya (Forthcoming in Social Simulation of COVID-19 with AI in Japan)
"Forecasting COVID-19 Infection with Model Averaging: A Real-Time Evaluation" with Shotaro Beppu and Somei Miyashita (Forthcoming in Social Simulation of COVID-19 with AI in Japan)
"Communiting Research Outcomes to Policymakers: Lessons from the COVID-19 Crisis," (Forthcoming in R&D and Their Implementation in Policy)
"Evidence-Based Policy Making in a Pandemic [JP]," (Forthcoming in Current Trends in Economic Research-2024)
"Monetary Policy: The Role of Experts in the Federal Reserve System [JP]," in EBPM: Science-Policy Interface in the Age of Data, ed. Yasushi Sato, Keiko Matsuo, and Noel Kikuchi. Tokyo: University of Tokyo Press, 2024.
"Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan," FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 8, 2020. [Featured in a Wall Street Journal article]
"Optimal Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with Attenuated Forward Guidance Effects," with Hess Chung and Matthias Paustian, FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 19, 2018.
"Model-Based Measures of ELB Risk,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 23, 2017.
"The Risk of Returning to the Effective Lower Bound: An Implication for Inflation Dynamics after Lift-Off,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 12, 2016.
"Credibility of Optimal Forward Guidance at the Interest Rate Lower Bound,'' FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 27, 2015. [Click here for a pdf version]
"Canada: A Success Story,'' with Lucy Liu and Cemile Sancack, in Chipping Away At Public Debt: Sources of Failure and Keys to Success in Fiscal Adjustment, ed. Paolo Mauro. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.
"When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle?: A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances'' with F. Bornhorst, G. Dobrescu, A. Fedelino, and J. Gottschalk, IMF Technical Notes and Manuals, April 2011.
"Has the Behavior of Inflation and Long-Term Inflation Expectations Changed?'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2008.
"The Trend Growth Rate of Employment: Past, Present, and Future,'' with Todd Clark, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, First Quarter 2006.
Policy Memo
"Strengthening the FOMC's Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies" with Fernando Duarte, Benjamin K. Johannsen, and Leonardo Melosi (Presented at the September 2019 FOMC meeting)
Real-Time COVID-19 Analysis from 2021 to 2023
From 2021 to 2023, I, together with Daisuke Fujii and several other economists, conducted a wide range of real-time policy analyses related to the COVID-19 pandemic. I presented my analyses to key policymakers and scientific advisers, including Prime Ministers and Tokyo Governor, on numerous occasions.
Fujii and Nakata (2022): "COVID-19 Crisis: A Tale of Two Economists" is a book that describes the early phase of the project.
"https://covid19outputjapan.github.io/JP/resources.html" contains our analyses from January 2021 to June 2022.
"https://www.bicea.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/" contains our analyses from July 2022 to October 2023.