LATEST TRADING PREVIEWS


The SoccerRatings In-Play trading spreadsheets were updated last night, ready for the weekend's action, and with 23 leagues covered, these show a number of potential trading opportunities across the world over the next few days.

The matches highlighted in this preview look at matches where leading teams are more vulnerable than average - effectively these teams leading provides a trigger for opposition goals.  

This information can be used in the match odds in-play trading markets, where it is possible to lay the leader in the match, or in the handicap or goal markets as well - there are many applications for utilising this data.  It is also worth considering using this data in conjunction with live in-play data, which would create an extremely powerful trading tool.

There are a number of obvious matches with a high likelihood of the leaders losing their lead, such as Koln at Bayern Munich in the German Bundesliga or Willem II at home to the 100% team in the Dutch Eredivisie, Feyenoord, but these will be quite expected by the market.  My preference is to find matches which are less expected by the markets, but provide a similar chance of a comeback in the match.  

I'd also like to make the point here that many top teams do not have data which would make it viable to back them when losing in play, so it's important to recognise that this is not just 'back the best teams and hope' strategy...

In the Championship, Sheffield Wednesday earned a solid 1-0 away win at Blackburn in midweek and they face Brighton at Hillsborough on Saturday.  Both teams look to be candidates for a top six position and Wednesday have very strong deficit recovery numbers.  They've equalised 80% of home deficits since September 2015, and 60% of deficits across both home and away - very strong numbers indeed.

Whilst Brighton (26.1% home leads conceded equalisers) have strong data in Sussex, they aren't so tight on their travels, conceding equalisers on 55.6% of occasions.  Laying Brighton when leading appeals tomorrow.

In Austria, Wolfsberger AC have been very strong at scoring equalisers at home, doing so 80% since September 2015.  They take on Rheindorf Altach on Saturday afternoon, and goals look likely, with both teams recording an overall average of over 2.5 goals per game this season.  Laying Altach if they lead looks to be a solid strategy.

The Czech Republic often provides teams with poor statistics for holding onto leads and Bohemians 1905 are very poor away from home for doing so, losing 80% of away leads since September 2015.  Opponents Vysocina Jihlava are second bottom of the table and are yet to record a win this season, so if Bohemians lead, it's unlikely the market will expect a comeback to be a greater than average chance.  However, Jihlava have equalised 54.6% of home deficits in this time period, and statistically, their away form tends to be much more of an issue than their abilities at their own stadium.  Opposing Bohemians if they lead is recommended.

This line can also be taken in the Czech Republic, to oppose Dukla Praha if they lead at Mlada Boleslav.  Boleslav have consistently shown they come back from losing positions both at home and away.

The Swiss Super League is another league which has generally more goals than average and all teams in the division have had at least an average of over 2.5 goals per game in their matches this season.  Only two teams have an average of fewer than 3 goals per game.

Whilst 100% team and domestic giants Basel look an obvious likely team to come back from any deficit at home to Thun, I like the chances of Young Boys Berne to do the same at home to St Gallen.  Berne have recovered 52.9% of deficits home and away since September 2015, and 66.7% at home.  St Gallen are one of the weakest teams at holding onto leads, losing them 50% across both home and away and 66.7% away.  Laying St Gallen when leading looks a reasonable proposition.

Finally in Argentina, there is a very bizarre 30 team top division.  Despite this, 12 month sample size of data isn't the biggest, but San Martin look very vulnerable at conceding an equaliser away at Banfield, statistically.
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