Are There More Goal Deficit Recoveries at Different Points of the Season?


Something that I thought would be interesting to analyse was the goal recovery percentages for various points of the season.  

This is pretty important, as getting a good handle on team motivation at various points of the calendar is likely to yield better results in the betting and trading markets.

Would there be a higher percentage of goal deficit recoveries at the start of the season, when teams are fresh and enthusiasm is high?  Or would the new faces in both teams take more time to gel?  What is the effect of bad weather and worse pitches throughout the winter?  Do teams give up or try harder during the last stages of the season, when teams are competing for glory, or to avoid failure?  Let's see what the data had to say...

The table below indicates the data for equalisers conceded in the European leagues which run from Jul/August 2015 to May 2015, covered by the SoccerRatings spreadsheets for last season:-


Jul/Aug 15



Sep 15



Oct 15



Nov 15



Dec 15



Jan 16



Feb 16



Mar 16



Apr/May 16




Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Home Conceded Equaliser

168

281

37.4

119

250

32.2

146

257

36.2

119

244

32.8

108

220

32.9

117

194

37.6

121

280

30.2

113

249

31.2

231

448

34.0

Away Conceded Equaliser

167

209

44.4

125

164

43.3

126

197

39.0

132

157

45.7

150

146

50.7

131

149

46.8

150

181

45.3

106

168

38.7

227

318

41.7

Overall Conceded Equaliser

335

490

40.6

244

414

37.1

272

454

37.5

251

401

38.5

258

366

41.3

248

343

42.0

271

461

37.0

219

417

34.4

458

766

37.4


Furthermore, we can see below the data, as split by early season (July-September), Winter (December, January, February) and End of Season (April-May):-


Early Season 



Winter



End Season




Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Yes

No

%

Home Conceded Equaliser

287

531

35.1

346

694

33.3

231

448

34.0

Away Conceded Equaliser

292

373

43.9

431

476

47.5

227

318

41.7

Overall Conceded Equaliser

579

904

39.0

777

1170

39.9

458

766

37.4


This data was very useful, particularly for traders, as it showed that whilst the goal deficit recovery percentages for each part of season split was very consistent, it peaked in the Winter, and a deficit recovery was less likely towards the end of the season.

In effect, pitch conditions and possibly having a few months for squads to be more stable and new signings to settle, yielded a slightly higher percentage for equalisers in matches, whilst the higher likelihood of teams with nothing to play for towards the end of the season, or fatigue, clearly had some impact on motivation and generated the least likelihood for equalisers.


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