Mail: shinya_sugawara(at)

Upcoming presentations

Upcoming presentation
Current position (From April, 2017)
Junior Associate Professor (tenured), Department of Business Economics, School of Management, Tokyo University of Science 
Applied microeconomics, Econometrics, Bayesian Statistics, Machine learning, Health economics, Economics of elder care, 

Publications (Journals)

1. Shinya Sugawara and Yasuhiro Omori(2012) "Duopoly in the Japanese airline market: Bayesian estimation for the entry game," Japanese Economic Review, 2012, V. 63(3), pp.310-332 

(Datasets used in this paper)

2. Zeynep Hansen, Hideo Owan, Jie Pan and Shinya Sugawara(2014), "The Impact of Group Contract and Governance Structure on Performance-- Evidence from College Classroom," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, V. 30(3) pp.463-492

3Yasuyuki Sawada, Masahiro Shoji, Shinya Sugawara and Naoko Shinkai (2014),  "The Role of Infrastructure in Mitigating Poverty Dynamics: The Case of an Irrigation Project in Sri Lanka,B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy (Topics), V. 14(3)

4. Shinya Sugawara and Jiro Nakamura (2014), "Can formal elderly care stimulate female labor supply? The Japanese experience," Journal of the Japanese and International Economiecs, V. 34, pp.98-115

5. Shinya Sugawara and Jiro Nakamura(2016) Gatekeeper incentives and demand inducement: An empirical analysis of care managers in the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, V.40, pp.1-16

6Keita Kinjo and Shinya Sugawara(2016) "Predicting Empirical Patterns in Viewing Japanese TV Dramas Using Case-Based Decision Theory," B.E.Journal of Theoretical Economics, V. 16(2): 679–709

7. Shinya Sugawara and Yasuhiro Omori (2017), "An Econometric Analysis of Insurance Markets with Separate Identification for Moral Hazard and Selection Problems," Computational Economics, V. 50(3), pp. 473-502.

8Shinya Sugawara (2017), Firm-Driven Management of Longevity Risk: Analysis of Lump-Sum Forward Payments in the Japanese Nursing Home Market, Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, V. 26(1), pp. 169–204

9. Shinya Sugawara, Tianyi Wu and Kenji Yamanishi (2018) "A Basket Two-Part Model to Analyze Medical Expenditure on Interdependent Multiple Sectors," Statistical Methods in Medical ResearchV. 27 (5),  pp. 1585-1600, 2018,  GitHub repository

10. Kenji Yamanishi, Tianyi Wu, Shinya Sugawara and Makoto Okada " "The decomposed normalized maximum likelihood code-length criterion for selecting hierarchical latent variable models,"  Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Volume 33, Issue 4, pp 1017–1058, DOI: 10.1007/s10618-019-00624-4

Publication (Proceedings)

11.Tianyi Wu, Shinya Sugawara and Kenji Yamanishi (2017) "Decomposed Normalized Maximum Likelihood Codelength Criterion for Selecting Hierarchical Latent Variable Models, Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD2017), pp.1165-1174,  Supplemental materials for this paperGitHub repository, Introduction Movie (from Youtube) below

Working Papers 

13.Iizuka, T., Noguchi, H. and Sugawara, S. " Pay-for-Performance and Selective Referral in Long-Term Care," SSRN Working Paper No. 2971560 

TUS Economics Seminar (only in Japanese)