Scott Ferson

(abbreviated 2000–2021)

Office: telephone +44 (0) 151 795 8039, email ferson @ liverpool . ac . uk

Home: telephone +44 (0) 74 8855 6139, text +44 (0) 74 8855 6139, Google +1-631-346-0869

Email: sandp8 @ gmail . com (preferred)

Education

1988 Ph.D. Ecology and Evolution, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Advisor: L. Slobodkin
1980 A.B. summa cum laude, Biology, Wabash College

Positions held

2017–present University of Liverpool, School of Engineering, Institute of Risk and Uncertainty, Chair of Uncertainty
1985–2016 Applied Biomathematics, Senior Scientist
2015–2016 Stony Brook University, Department of Technology and Society, adjunct professor
2005–2016 Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, adjunct professor

Major grants and projects (2000–present)

2020–2023 £939K, Innovate UK: Development of Advanced Wings Solutions (PI: Astin, Airbus, £20M)
2018–2023 £922K, EPSRC: DigiTwin digital twins for improved dynamic design (PI: Wagg, Sheffield, £5.1M)
2019–2022 £1.6M, UKRI GCRF: Informed mining: risk reduction via enhanced public & institutional risk awareness
2017–2023 £4.1M, EPSRC/ESRC: Centre for Doctoral Training in Risk & Uncertainty in Complex Systems
2019 £50K, MRC: Integrated system for rigorous quantification of uncertainty in personalised diagnosis/counselling
2014–2016 $450K, USDA: Effect of human population on land use and species viability
2012–2014 499K, National Institutes of Health: Finding patterns in medical data while keeping patient privacy
2010–2013 1,628K, National Institutes of Health: Compensating for uncertainty biases in health risk judgments
2009–2011 753K, National Institutes of Health: Outbreak detection: combinatorial tests for small samples
2006–2009 670K, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA Langley): Uncertainty in early design
2001–2008 780K, Sandia National Laboratories: Uncertainty projection in black-box systems
2001–2006 788K, National Institutes of Health: Safe environmental concentrations under uncertainty
1996–2000 850K, National Institutes of Health: Quality assurance methods for Monte Carlo risk analysis

Professional activities (2000–present)

2017–present Director, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty (www.riskinstitute.uk)
2019–2020 Program director, School of Engineering master's in risk and uncertainty, University of Liverpool
2018 Organizer, Reliability Engineering Computing 2018 international conference, Liverpool, UK
2014 Laboratoires d’excellence MS2T fellowship, Université de Technologie de Compiègne, France
2014 Organizer, Validation of ecological models with imprecise data, Centre Bernoulli, Switzerland
2012–present Editorial board, International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (Elsevier)
2007–present Editorial board, International Journal of Intelligent Technologies and Applied Statistics
2014–2016 Editorial board, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems (ASCE/ASME)
2005–2015 Editorial board, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment (Taylor & Francis)
2012–2015 Editorial board, Environment, Systems, and Decisions (Springer)
2013 Editor, with M. Beer, Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing issue on imprecise probabilities
2012 Science Advisory Board panel member on Libby amphibole asbestos assessment, U.S. EPA
2009–2011 Councilor, Society for Risk Analysis
2010–2011 Science Advisory Board panel on dioxin reassessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2010 Chair, peer review of EPA report on using probabilistic methods in decision making
2009 Science Advisory Board panel on expert elicitation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2008 Science advisory panel, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center
2007–2008 Review panel for Whitestone Bridge assessment plan, Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority
2007–present Organizer, Society for Risk Analysis workshop, Probabilistic Risk Analysis with Hardly Any Data
2003–2006 Organizer and co-instructor, Society for Risk Analysis workshop, What Monte Carlo Cannot Do
1998–2011 Conferences and Workshops Committee, Society for Risk Analysis, Chair (2000–2006)
2007 Reviewer, NAESI Biodiversity Science Review, Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada
2006 Organizing committee, NSF symposium on Strategies for Risk Communication
2006 Organizing committee, Ninth German–American Frontiers of Engineering Symposium
2005–2006 Co-instructor, SETAC workshops, Human Health and Ecological Risk Analysis, several cities
2003–2007 Partner, EUFRAM European Commission Framework for assessing pesticide impacts
2005 Co-instructor, EPA/PRA Center of CNY shortcourse, Introduction to Probabilistic Modeling
2005 Organizing committee, Society of Toxicology symposium, Probabilistic Risk Assessment
1999–2004 FIFRA Scientific Advisory Panel, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
2003 Organizer, Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities, World Congress on Risk, Brussels
2001–2002 Committee on the Review of E. coli O157:H7 Risk Assessment, National Academy of Sciences
2000 Organizer, SRA Forum on Uncertainty: Its Nature, Analytical Treatment and Interpretation

Awards

Distinguished Educator Award, Society for Risk Analysis; Fellow, Society for Risk Analysis; Distinguished Software, for RAMAS (EDUCOM); McIntosh Fellowship for Graduate Study; Carscallen Prize in Biology (Wabash College); Honor Scholar Fellowship (Wabash College); Honor Scholarship (State of Indiana); high school Salutatorian and lord mayor of the May Festival.

Invited lectures (2000–present)

click here for abstracts and details

2021 Department of Technology and Society, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York
2020 Plenary lecture/master class, NGN/GREEN nuclear centres for doctoral training joint winter school, York
2019 Keynote address, Brazilian Association of Risk Analysis, Process Safety and Reliability, Rio de Janeiro
2019 Human Reliability & Intelligent Autonomous Systems, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland
2019 Plenary address, European Safety and Reliability Conference, Hannover, Germany
2019 International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety, Liverpool, United Kingdom
2019 Los Alamos Data & Information Fusion Conference, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States
2018 Keynote lecture, Belief / Soft Methods in Probabilities and Statistics conference, Compiègne, France
2018 Keynote address, ASME Verification and Validation Symposium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
2018 Keynote address, EPSRC HubNet Risk Day, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
2018 Summer School, Imprecise Probabilities: Theory and Applications, Oviedo, Spain
2018 Technische Universität Dresden SPP1886, Udine, Italy
2018 Science and Technology Facilities Council, Daresbury, United Kingdom
2018 Department of Ocean & Mechanical Engineering, Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida
2017 Plenary address, Society for Risk Analysis annual meeting, Arlington, Virginia
2017 Statistical Engineering Division, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland
2017 Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
2017 SRA Policy Forum: Risk Governance for Key Enabling Technologies, Venice, Italy
2016 Keynote address, 7th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, Bochum, Germany
2016 Workshop, Probability Bounds Analysis with Hardly Any Data, ReliabilityFirst, Columbus, Ohio
2016 Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, New York
2015 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
2015 Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York
2014 Series of four lectures, Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
2014 Keynote, IEEE Symp. on Computational Intelligence for Engineering Solutions CIES’14, Orlando, Florida
2014 Statistical Sciences Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
2014 Rutgers University Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, Piscataway, New Jersey
2014 Keynote address, Reliability Engineering Conference REC 2014, Chicago, Illinois
2014 National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
2014 Information Science and Technology Center, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
2014 Labex Maitrise des Systèmes des Systèmes Technologiques, UTC, Compiègne, France
2013 Imprecise probability workshop, Institute of Logic and Cognition, Sun Yat-Sen University, China
2013 Constraint Programming and Decision Making Workshop, El Paso, Texas
2013 Mathematics Department, Suffolk County Community College, Selden, New York
2012 Social Values Intersecting Risk Analysis, International speaker, University of Auckland, NZ
2012 Frontiers of Risk Analysis, International speaker, SRAonCampus, University of Sydney, Australia
2011 Keynote address, IFIP/NIST, Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, Boulder, Colorado
2011 IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York
2011 National Institute of Aerospace Summer Design Institute, Hampton, Virginia
2011 First NASA Statistical Engineering Symposium, Williamsburg, Virginia
2011 DuPont Crop Protection statistics and modeling group, Newark, Delaware
2011 Symposium on models to assess biotechnology risk, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa
2010 Workshop on PBA, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, CDC, Cincinnati, Ohio
2010 Workshop on the Assessment and Communication of Risk and Uncertainties…, Los Angeles
2009 Keynote address, Australian and New Zealand Society for Risk Analysis, Wellington, New Zealand
2009 Risk Control and Optimization Conference, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida
2009 National Atmospheric and Space Administration (NASA), Langley, Virginia
2008 Plenary address, SCAN’08 International Symposium of Scientific Computing, El Paso, Texas
2008 Special Session on Generalized Information Theory at NAFIPS’08, New York City
2008 Plenary tutorial, Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, NAC, Bar Harbor, Maine
2008 Computer Science Research Institute, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
2007 Plenary tutorial, Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Applications, Prague, Czech Republic
2007 Department of Preventive Medicine, Health Sciences Center, Stony Brook University, New York
2007 Environment Canada, uncertainty in population viability analysis, Vancouver, British Columbia
2006 Stanford University Center for Turbulence Research, Stanford, California
2006 Society of Toxicology, Gulf Coast chapter workshop, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Waco, Texas
2006 ASME workshop, Uncertainty Representation in Robust and Reliability-based Design, Philadelphia
2006 Sandia National Laboratories Validation Challenge Workshop, Albuquerque, New Mexico
2005 Second Scandinavian Workshop on Interval Methods and Their Applications, Copenhagen
2005 Joint Regulatory Science Forum IV, Risk Assessment Data: Why, What and How, Canberra, Australia
2005 Office of the Gene Technology Regulator, Canberra, Australia
2005 Shortcourse on Probabilistic Modeling, PRA Center of CNY, Washington, DC
2005 Probabilistic Risk Assessment workshop, SETAC, Baltimore, Maryland, and East Lansing, Michigan
2005 CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
2005 International Conference on Sanitary/Phytosanitary Risk Assessment Methodology, Washington
2005 Keynote address, North Atlantic Society for Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, Burlington
2005 Uncertainty Workshop, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
2005 German–American Frontiers of Engineering Symposium, Potsdam, Germany
2005 Society for Risk Analysis, North East Chapter, Boston, Massachusetts
2005 Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
2004 Marine Sciences Research Center, Stony Brook, New York
2004 Summer School on Imprecise Probabilities, Lugeno, Switzerland
2004 NASA/NIA workshop Uncertainty Characterization in Systems Analysis, Hampton, Virginia
2004 Improved Approaches for Long-term Pesticide Risks to Birds and Mammals, CSL, York, UK
2003 Pfizer Research Global Headquarters, New London, Connecticut
2003 European Commission workshop on pesticides, EUPRA, Bilthoven, Netherlands
2002 Risk-based Decision Making in Water Resources X, United Engineering Foundation, Santa Barbara
2002 CSIRO workshop on ecological risk assessment for genetically modified organisms, Australia
2002 Setting Priorities and Making Decisions for Conservation Risk Management, NCEAS, Santa Barbara
2002 Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop, Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, New Mexico
2002 Workshop on Novel Approaches to Uncertainty Quantification, Los Alamos National Laboratory
2002 SETAC workshop, Uncertainty Analysis for Ecological Risks of Pesticides, Pensacola, Florida
2001 Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
2001 USDA–ESA–SRA Workshop on Invasive Species, Las Cruces, New Mexico
2001 Uncertainty Quantification Seminar, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico
2000 Risk-based Decision Making in Water Resources IX, United Engineering Foundation, Santa Barbara
2000 IUCN Workshop on Precautionary Principle and Wildlife Conservation, Cambridge, UK

Software

Ferson, S. J. Hajagos, D.S. Meyers and W.T. Tucker. 2005. RAMAS Constructor: Synthesizing Information about Uncertain Variables. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York. [with 101-page manual] www.ramas.com/constructor.htm.

Ferson, S., W. Root and R. Kuhn. 2002. RAMAS Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Florida. [with 230-page book]

Ferson, S., D. Slice and C. Kurtz. [forthcoming] Ecobound: Detection, Localization and Analysis of Ecological Boundaries. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York.

Akçakaya, R., S. Ferson and W.T. Root. 1999 RAMAS Redlist: Threatened Species Classifications under Uncertainty. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York. [Windows software]

Ferson, S., W. Root and R. Kuhn. 1999. RAMAS Risk Calc: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California. [with 184-page manual]

Spencer, M., and S. Ferson. 1997. RAMAS Ecosystem: Ecological risk assessment for food chains and webs. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York. [with 118-page manual]

Spencer, M., and S. Ferson. 1997. RAMAS Ecotoxicology: Ecological risk assessment for structured populations. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York. [with 81-page manual]

Ferson, S., and R. Kuhn. 1993. Units Calculator. Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York. [with 35-page manual]

Ferson, S. 1990. RAMAS Stage: Generalized stage-based modeling for population dynamics. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California. [with 107-page manual]

Akçakaya, R., and S. Ferson. 1990. RAMAS Space: Spatially Structured Population Models for Conservation Biology. Exeter Software, Setauket, New York. [with 114-page manual]

Ferson, S., and H.R. Akçakaya. 1988. RAMAS Age: Modeling Fluctuations in Age-structured Populations. Exeter Software, Setauket, New York. [with 147-page manual]

Books

Tucker, W.T., S. Ferson, A. Finkel, and D. Slavin (eds.) 2008. Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence, Experience. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1128, Blackwell Publishing, Boston.

Ferson, S. 2002. RAMAS Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Florida. [reviewed by http://www.tomasoberg.com/pdf/sra_poster_2005.pdf]

Pastorok, R., S.M. Bartell, S. Ferson and L.R. Ginzburg (eds.) 2002. Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment: Chemical Effects on Populations, Ecosystems, and Landscapes. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Florida.

Ferson, S., and M. Burgman (eds.) 2000. Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, Springer Verlag, New York. [reviewed in Basic and Applied Ecology 4 (5), Global Ecology and Biogeography 10(5): 576–577, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 64(4): 825–826]

Burgman, M., S. Ferson and H.R. Akçakaya. 1993. Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology. Chapman & Hall, London. Population and Community Biology Series, 314 pp. [reviewed in Biological Conservation 69:229, Journal of Ecology 82:428–429, Trends in Ecology and Evolution 8:225–226, Quarterly Review of Biology 69:419]

Ferson, S. 1988. Are Vegetation Communities Stable Assemblages? Ph.D. dissertation, State University of New York, Stony Brook.

Articles (2000–present)

Tretiak, K., and S. Ferson. Measuring uncertainty when pooling interval-censored data sets with different precision. [in review]

Derrer-Merk, E., M. Reyes, A. Salazar, G. Marisol, G. Rodriguez, A.M. Fonesca. 2022. Is protecting older adults from COVID-19 ageism? A comparative cross-cultural constructivist grounded theory from the United Kingdom and Colombia. Journal of Social Issues https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3157730

Tretiak, K., G. Schollmeyer and S. Ferson. 2022. Neural network model for imprecise regression with interval dependent variables [arXiv preprint arXiv:2206.02467] [in review]

Baumont de Oliveira, F.J., S. Ferson, R.A.D. Dyer, J.M.H. Thomas, P.D. Myers. 2022. How high is high enough? Assessing financial risk for vertical farms using imprecise probability. Sustainability 14 (9), 5676.

Derrer-Merk, E., S. Ferson, A. Mannis, R. Bentall, K.M. Bennett 2022. Belongingness challenged: exploring the impact on older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. [OSF Preprints]

Gray, N., S. Ferson, M. de Angelis, A. Gray, F.Baumont de Oliveira. 2022. Probability bounds analysis for Python. Software Impacts 12, 100246.

Miralles-Dolz, E., A. Gray, E. Patelli, S. Ferson. 2022. Correlated Boolean operators for uncertainty logic. Proceeding of the International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-based Systems. 798-811. Springer.

Derrer-Merk, E., S. Ferson, A. Mannis, R. Bentall, K.M. Bennett. 2022. Older people’s family relationships in disequilibrium during the COVID-19 pandemic. What really matters? Ageing & Society 1-18.

Gray, A., S. Ferson. V. Kreinovich, and E. Patelli. 2022. Distribution-free risk analysis. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 146: 133–156.

Wimbush, A., N. Gray, and S. Ferson. 2022. Singhing with confidence: visualising the performance of confidence procedures. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation https://doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2022.2044814

Ferson, S., and M. De Angelis. 2021. Computing with confidence [editorial]. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 137 (2021) 67–68. https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/3133310/1/1-s2.0-S0888613X21001006-main.pdf

Morais, C., S. Ferson, R. Moura, S. Tolo, M. Beer, E. Patelli. 2021. Handling the uncertainty with confidence in human reliability analysis. Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), Angers, France, 19-23 September 2021.

Le Carrer, N., and S. Ferson. 2021. Beyond probabilities: A possibilistic framework to interpret ensemble predictions and fuse imperfect sources of information. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 147: 3410-3433. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4135

Gray, A., D. Hose, M. De Angelis, M. Hanss and S. Ferson. 2021. Dependent possibilistic arithmetic using copulas. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications.

DeAngelis, M., R. Rocchetta, A. Wimbush, A. Gray, S. Ferson. 2021. Constructing consonant sets of predictive beliefs from empirical observations with scenario theory. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications.

Martin, R., M.S. Balch and S. Ferson. 2021. Response to the comment Confidence in confidence distributions! Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 477: 2250. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0579

Ferson, S., and A. Gray. 2021. Distribution-free uncertainty propagation. Pages 395-407 in the Proceedings of the 9th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, 17-20 May 2021. http://ww2new.unime.it/REC2021/proceedings/REC2021_Proceedings.pdf

Gray, N., S. Ferson, and V. Kreinovich. 2021. How to gauge the quality of a testing method when ground truth is known with uncertainty. Pages 265-278 in the Proceedings of the 9th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, 17-20 May 2021. http://ww2new.unime.it/REC2021/proceedings/REC2021_Proceedings.pdf

Gray, A., M. De Angelis, S. Ferson, E. Patelli. 2021. What’s Z−X, when Z=X+Y? Dependency tracking in interval arithmetic with bivariate sets. Pages 27-38 in the Proceedings of the 9th International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, 17-20 May 2021. http://ww2new.unime.it/REC2021/proceedings/REC2021_Proceedings.pdf

Alexiadis, A., S. Ferson, E.A. Patterson. 2021. Transformation of measurement uncertainties into low-dimensional feature vector space. Royal Society Open Science 8: 201086. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.201086

Gray, N., D. Calleja, A. Wimbush, E. Miralles-Dolz, A. Gray, M. De Angelis, E. Derrer-Merk, B.U. Oparaji, V. Stepanov, L. Clearkin, S. Ferson. 2021. Correction: Is no test better than a bad test: impact of diagnostic uncertainty on the spread of COVID-19. PloS One 16: e0247129. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0247129.

Gray, N., D. Calleja, A. Wimbush, E. Miralles-Dolz, A. Gray, M. De Angelis, E. Derrer-Merk, B.U. Oparaji, V. Stepanov, L. Clearkin, S. Ferson. 2020. Is “no test is better than a bad test? Impact of diagnostic uncertainty in mass testing on the spread of COVID-19. PLoS ONE 15: e0240775. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0240775, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20067884v3

Oparaji, B.U., L. Clearkin, S. Ferson, M. De Angelis, M. Ferrer-Fernandez, D. Calleja, N. Gray, E. Derrer-Merk. 2020. Comment on: British Society for Rheumatology guideline on diagnosis and treatment of giant cell arteritis. Rheumatology 59: e159. doi:10.1093/rheumatology/keaa265

Baumont De Oliveira, F., S. Ferson and R. Dyer. 2020. A collaborative decision support system framework for vertical farming business developments. International Journal of Decision Support System Technology, in press.

Balch, M.S., R. Martin, and S. Ferson. 2019. Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem. Proceedings of the Royal Society A 475. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2018.0565

Gray, N., S. Ferson, M. De Angelis, D. Calleja. 2019. A problem in the Bayesian analysis of data without gold standards. Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL), 10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0458-cd. https://bit.ly/2WltrQc

Le Carrer, N., S. Ferson, and P.L. Green. 2019. Optimising cargo loading and ship scheduling in tidal areas. European Journal of Operational Research 280: 1082–1094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.08.002

Gray, N., M. De Angelis and S. Ferson. 2019. Computing with uncertainty: introducing Puffin, the automatic uncertainty compiler. UNCECOMP 2019, 3^rd ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Computational Sciences and Engineering, M. Papadrakakis, V. Papadopoulos, G. Stefanou (eds.), Crete, Greece.

Linkov, I., B.D. Trump, E. Anklam, D. Berube, P. Boisseasu, C. Cummings, S. Ferson, M.-V. Florin, B. Goldstein, and 16 others. 2018. Comparative, collaborative, and integrative risk governance for emerging technologies. Environment Systems and Decisions 38: 170–176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-018-9686-5

Calder, A.C., M.M. Hoffman, D.E. Willcox, M.P. Katz, F.D. Swesty and S. Ferson. 2018. Quantification of incertitude in black box simulation codes. Journal of Physics: Conference Series 1031(1):012016.

Ferson, S. 2017. Estimating rare-event probabilities without data. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability (ICOSSAR), 6-10 August 2017, Wien, Austria.

Ferson, S.. and K. Sentz 2016. Epistemic uncertainty in agent-based modeling. Proceedings of the 7^th International Workshop of Reliable Engineering Computing: Computing with Polymorphic Uncertain Data, 15-17 June 2016, Ruhr Universität, Bochum, Germany.

Beer, M., S. Ferson and V. Kreinovich. 2016. Do we have compatible concepts of epistemic uncertainty? Proceedings of the 6th Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications (APSSRA6). H.W. Huang, J. Li, J. Zhang & J.B. Chen (eds.), Shanghai, China.

Moore, D.R.J., R.L Breton, T.R DeLong, S. Ferson, J.P Lortie, D.B MacDonald, R. McGrath, A. Pawlisz, S.C Svirsky, R.S. Teed, R.P Thompson, and M. Whitfield Aslund. 2016. Ecological risk assessment for mink and short-tailed shrew exposed to PCBs, dioxins, and furans in the Housatonic River area. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management 12(1): 174–184.

Ferson, S., J. O'Rawe, A. Antonenko, J. Siegrist, J. Mickley, C. Luhmann, K. Sentz, A. Finkel. 2015. Natural language of uncertainty: numeric hedge words. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 57: 19-39. http://www.ramas.com/health/hedges.pdf

O'Rawe, J.A., S. Ferson and G.J. Lyon. 2015. Accounting for uncertainty in DNA sequencing data. Trends in Genetics 31: 61-66. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tig.2014.12.002).

Ferson, S., J O’Rawe and M. Balch. 2014. Computing with confidence: imprecise posteriors and predictive distributions. Proceedings of the International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management and International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analyis. http://www.ramas.com/health/icvram2014.pdf

Ferson, S. 2014. Model uncertainty in risk analysis. Proceedings of the 6^th International Workshop of Reliable Engineering Computing: Reliability and Computations of Infrastructures, 25–28 May 2014, IIT, Chicago, Illinois, pages 27–43. http://rec2014.iit.edu/papers/Paper_Ferson.pdf

Xiang, G., S. Ferson. 2014. Protecting patient privacy while preserving medical information for research. Proceedings of the 6^th International Workshop of Reliable Engineering Computing, 25–28 May 2014, IIT, Chicago, Illinois, pages 281–293. http://rec2014.iit.edu/papers/Paper_Xiang.pdf

Ferson, S., M. Balch, K. Sentz, and J. Siegrist. 2013. Computing with confidence. Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, edited by F. Cozman, T. Denoeux, S. Destercke and T. Seidenfeld. SIPTA, Compiègne, France. http://www.ramas.com/health/cboxes.pdf

Beer, M., S. Ferson, and V. Kreinovich. 2013. Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing 37: 429. http://www.ramas.com/health/ip.pdf

Ferson, S., and J. Siegrist. 2012. Verified computation with probabilities. Pages 95-122 in Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, edited by A. Dienstfrey and R.F. Boisvert, Springer, New York. http://www.ramas.com/health/verifiedprob.pdf

Ferson, S., and J. Siegrist. 2011. Statistical inference under two structurally different approaches to interval data. Pages 29-37 in Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management, edited by B.M. Ayyub. ASCE, Reston, VA. http://www.ramas.com/health/two.pdf

Akçakaya, H.R., S. Ferson, M.A. Burgman, D.A. Keith, G.M. Mace, and C.R. Todd. 2012. Commentary: IUCN classifications under uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software 38: 119–121.

Sentz, K., and S. Ferson. 2011. Probabilistic bounding analysis in the quantification of margins and uncertainties. Reliability and Engineering System Safety 96: 1126–1136.

Siegrist, J., S. Ferson, J. Goode, and R. Grimson. 2011. Statistically detecting clustering for rare events. Proceedings of the International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management with the Fifth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis , Hyattsville, Maryland, American Society of Civil Engineers.

Beer, M., and S. Ferson. 2011. Fuzzy probability in engineering analyses. Proceedings of the International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management with the Fifth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis , Hyattsville, Maryland, American Society of Civil Engineers.

Ferson, S., and J. Mickley. 2011. Uncertainty arithmetic on Excel spreadsheets: add-in for intervals, probability distributions and probability boxes. Proceedings of the International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management with the Fifth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis , Hyattsville, Maryland, American Society of Civil Engineers.

Enszer, J.A., Y. Lin, S. Ferson, G.F. Corliss, and M.A. Stadtherr. 2011. Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear dynamic process models. AIChE [American Institute of Chemical Engineers] Journal 57: 404–422.

Ferson, S., D.R.J. Moore, P. van der Brink, T.L. Estes, K. Gallagher, R. O’Connor and F. Verdonck. 2010. Bounding uncertainty analyses. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides, edited by W. Warren-Hicks and A. Hart, SETAC Press, Pensacola, Florida.

Hart, A., S. Ferson, J. Shaw, G.W. Suter II, P.F. Chapman, P.L. de Fur, W. Heger and P.D. Jones. 2010. Problem formulation for probabilistic ecological risk assessments. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides, edited by W. Warren-Hicks and A. Hart, SETAC Press, Pensacola, Florida.

Joermann, G., T.W. La Point, L.A. Burns, J.P. Carbone, P.D. Delorme, S. Ferson, D.R.J. Moore and T.P. Traas. 2010. How to detect and avoid pitfalls, traps, and swindles. Application of Uncertainty Analysis to Ecological Risks of Pesticides, edited by W. Warren-Hicks and A. Hart, SETAC Press, Pensacola, Florida.

Ferson, S., and W.L. Oberkampf. 2009. Validation of imprecise probability models. International Journal of Reliability and Safety 3(1/2/3): 3–22.

Ginzburg, L.R., and S. Ferson 2009. Citations, anonymous ideas, and ecological engineering. Evolutionary Ecology Research [on-line]. http://www.evolutionary-ecology.com/data/2354.pdf

Nguyen, H.T., O. Kosheleva, V. Kreinovich and S. Ferson. 2009. Trade-off between sample size and accuracy: case of measurements under interval uncertainty. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 50: 1164-1176.

Kreinovich, V., J.G. Hajagos, W.T. Tucker, J. Beck, L.R. Ginzburg and S. Ferson. 2008. Propagating Uncertainty through a Quadratic Response Surface Model. SAND2008-5983, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. http://www.ramas.com/quadratic.pdf

Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker. 2008. Probability boxes as info-gap models. Proceedings of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, IEEE, New York City.

Longpré, L., S. Ferson, and W.T. Tucker. 2008. How to measure a degree of mismatch between probability models, p-boxes, etc.: a decision-theory-motivated utility-based approach. Proceedings of the North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society, IEEE, New York City.

Ferson, S., W.L. Oberkampf and L. Ginzburg. 2008. Validation of imprecise probabilistic models. Third International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, Savannah Georgia. R. Muhannah et al. (eds.). http://www.gtsav.gatech.edu/workshop/rec08/documents/REC08_Paper_Ferson_000.pdf

Oberkampf, W.L., and S. Ferson. 2008. Model validation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Proceedings of the Symposium on Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design, NATO/RTO Applied Vehicle Technology Panel, Athens, Greece.

Tucker, W.T., and S. Ferson. 2008. Evolved altruism, strong reciprocity, and perception of risk. In Strategies for Risk Communication: Evolution, Evidence, Experience, edited by W.T. Tucker et al., The New York Academy of Sciences.

Nguyen, H.T., O. Kosheleva, V. Kreinovich, and S. Ferson. 2008. Trade-off between sample size and accuracy: case of dynamic measurements under interval uncertainty. Pages 45-56 in Interval/Probabilistic Uncertainty and Non-classical Logics, V.-N. Huynh, Y. Nakamori, H. Ono, J. Lawry, V. Kreinovich and H.T. Nguyen (eds.), Springer, Berlin.

Enszer, J.A., Y. Lin, S. Ferson, G.F. Corliss and M.A. Stadtherr. 2008. Propagating uncertainties in modeling nonlinear dynamic systems. Third International Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing, Savannah Georgia. http://www.gtsav.gatech.edu/workshop/rec08/documents/REC08_Papper_Enszer.pdf

Ferson, S., W.L. Oberkampf and L. Ginzburg. 2008. Model validation and predictive capability for the thermal challenge problem. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering 197: 2408–2430. Available at http://www.ramas.com/thermval.pdf

Slavin, D., W.T. Tucker and S. Ferson. 2008. A frequency/consequence-based technique for visualizing and communicating uncertainty and perception of risk. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1128: 63–77.

Ferson, S. 2008. Review of Microbial Risk Analysis of Foods edited by D.W. Schaffner. The Quarterly Review of Biology 83 (4): 424–425.

Tucker, W.T., J.D. Litzgus, S. Ferson, H.R. Akcakaya, M. Thompson, D. Fort, and J. Lortie. 2008. Population-level effects of PCBs on wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) breeding in vernal pools associated with the Housatonic River, Pittsfield to Lenoxdale, Massachusetts. In Demographic Toxicity: Methods in Ecological Risk Assessment edited by H.R. Akçakaya, J.D. Stark and T.S. Bridges, Oxford University Press, New York.

Ferson, S., V. Kreinovich, J. Hajagos, W.L. Oberkampf and L. Ginzburg 2007. Experimental Uncertainty Estimation and Statistics for Data Having Interval Uncertainty. SAND2007-0939, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. http://www.ramas.com/intstats.pdf

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, V. Kreinovich and J. Lopez. 2007. Absolute bounds on the mean of the sum, product, max, and min: a probabilistic extension of interval arithmetic. Applied Mathematical Sciences 1(9): 395-440.

Ceberio, M., S. Ferson, V. Kreinovich, S. Chopra, G. Xiang, A. Murguia and J. Santillan. 2007. How to take into account dependence between the inputs. Journal of Uncertain Systems 1:14-37.

Kreinovich, V., L. Longpré, S.A. Starks, G. Xiang, J. Beck, R. Kandathi, A. Nayak, S. Ferson and J. Hajagos. 2007. Interval versions of statistical techniques with applications to environmental analysis, bioinformatics, and privacy in statistical databases. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 199(2): 418-423.

Ferson, S., and J.G. Hajagos. 2006. Varying correlation coefficients can underestimate uncertainty in probabilistic models. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91: 1461-1467.

Kreinovich, V., G. Xiang and S.Ferson. 2006. Computing mean and variance under Dempster-Shafer uncertainty: towards faster algorithms. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 42: 212-227.

Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker. 2006. Sensitivity in Risk Analysis with Uncertain Numbers. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2006-2801, Albuquerque, NM. www.ramas.com/sensanal.pdf

Ferson, S., and V. Kreinovich. 2006. Modeling correlation and dependence among intervals. REC 06 Reliable Engineering Computing, Savannah, Georgia. www.gtrep.gatech.edu/workshop/rec06/REC'06_Proceedings.pdf, R. Muhannah et al. (eds.). Available on-line at www.gtrep.gatech.edu/workshop/rec06/papers/Ferson_paper.pdf.

Bruns, M., C.J.J. Paredis, and S. Ferson. 2006. Computational methods for decision making based on imprecise information. Pages 341-368 in Proceedings of the NSF Workshop on Reliable Engineering Computing: Modeling Errors and Uncertainty in Engineering Computations, February 22-24, 2006, Savannah, Georgia, USA, R.L. Muhanna and R.L. Mullen (eds.), www.gtrep.gatech.edu/workshop/rec06/papers/Burns_paper.pdf [sic].

Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker. 2006. Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91: 1435-1442.

Kreinovich, V., and S. Ferson. 2006. Computing best-possible bounds for the distribution of a sum of several variables is NP-hard. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 41: 331-342.

Ferson, S., J. Hajagos, D.S. Meyers and W.T. Tucker. 2005. Constructor: Synthesizing Information about Uncertain Variables. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2005-3769, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Available on-line at www.ramas.com/constructor.pdf.

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, V. Kreinovich, L. Longpré, and M. Aviles. 2005. Exact bounds on finite populations of interval data. Reliable Computing 11(3): 207-233.

Kreinovich, K., and S. Ferson. 2005. Why product of probabilities (masses) for independent events? A remark. International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics 22(3): 341347.

Kreinovich, K., L. Longpré, P. Patangay, S. Ferson, and L. Ginzburg. 2005. Outlier detection under interval uncertainty: algorithmic solvability and computational complexity. Reliable Computing 11: 59-76.

Kreinovich, K., E.J. Pauwels, S. Ferson and L. Ginzburg. 2004. A feasible algorithm for locating concave and convex zones of interval data and its use in statistics-based clustering. Numerical Algorithms 37: 225-232.

Ferson, S., R. Nelsen, J. Hajagos, D. Berleant, J. Zhang, W.T. Tucker, L. Ginzburg and W.L. Oberkampf. 2004. Dependence in Probabilistic Modeling, Dempster-Shafer Theory, and Probability Bounds Analysis. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2004-3072, Albuquerque, NM. www.ramas.com/depend.pdf

Ferson, S., W. Troy Tucker and W.L. Oberkampf. 2004. The notion of independence when probabilities are imprecise. 9th ASCE EMD/SEI/GI/AD Joint Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability (PMC2004), Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Ferson, S., and J. Hajagos. 2004. Arithmetic with uncertain numbers: rigorous and (often) best-possible answers. Reliability and Engineering and System Safety 85: 135-152.

Ferson, S., C.A. Joslyn, J.C. Helton, W.L. Oberkampf and K. Sentz. 2004. Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity. Reliability and Engineering and System Safety 85: 355-370.

Oberkampf, W.L., J.C. Helton, C.A. Joslyn, S.F. Wojtkiewicz and S. Ferson. 2004. Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters. Reliability and Engineering and System Safety 85: 11-20.

Joslyn, C., and S. Ferson. 2004. Approximate representations of random intervals for hybrid uncertainty quantification in engineering modeling. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Sensitivity Analysis of Model Output. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM.

Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker. 2004. Reliability of risk analyses for contaminated groundwater. Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management under Uncertainty, edited by Srikanta Mishra, American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, VA.

Regan, H.M., S. Ferson, D. Berleant. 2004. Equivalence of methods for uncertainty propagation of real-valued random variables. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 36: 1-30.

Kreinovich, V., and S.A.[sic] Ferson. 2004. A new Cauchy-based black-box technique for uncertainty in risk analysis. Reliability and Engineering and System Safety 85: 267-280.

Bier, V.M., Y.Y. Haimes, J.H. Lambert, S. Ferson and M.J. Small. 2003. Quantifying risk of extreme/rare events: lessons from a selection of approaches. In Risk Analysis and Society: Interdisciplinary Perspectives, edited by T. McDaniels and M. Small, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Tucker, W.T., and S. Ferson. 2003. Setting cleanup targets in a probabilistic assessment. Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management under Uncertainty, edited by Srikanta Mishra, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA.

Kreinovich, V., S. Ferson and L. Ginzburg. 2003. Exact upper bound on the mean of the product of many random variables with known expectations. Reliable Computing 9(6): 441-463.

Berleant, D., M.P. Cheong, C. Chu, Y. Guan, A. Kamal, G. Shebl, S. Ferson, and J.F. Peters. 2003. Dependable handling of uncertainty. Reliable Computing 9(6): 407–418.Ferson, S., L.R. Ginzburg and H.R. Akçakaya. Whereof one cannot speak: when input distributions are unknown. Risk Analysis [to appear].

Bartell, S.M., R.A. Pastorok, H.R. Akçakaya, H.M. Regan, S. Ferson and C. Mackay. 2003. Realism and relevance of ecological models used in chemical risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9(4): 907-938.

Regan, H.M., H.R. Akçakaya, S. Ferson, K.V. Root, S. Carroll and L.R. Ginzburg. 2003. Treatments of uncertainty and variability in ecological risk assessment of single-species populations. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9(4): 889-906.

Pastorok, R.A., H.R. Akçakaya, H.M. Regan, S. Ferson, and S.M. Bartell. 2003. Role of ecological modeling in risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 9(4): 939-972.

Ferson, S., and W.T. Tucker 2003. Reliability of risk analyses for contaminated groundwater. Groundwater Quality Modeling and Management Under Uncertainty, S. Mishra (ed.), American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia.

Ferson, S., V. Kreinovich, L. Ginzburg, K. Sentz and D.S. Myers. 2003. Constructing probability boxes and Dempster-Shafer structures. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2002-4015, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Available on-line at http://www.ramas.com/unabridged.zip.

Regan, H.M., B.E. Sample and S. Ferson. 2002. Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic calculation of ecological soil screening levels. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 21: 882-890.

Ferson, S. 2002. Population models—scalar abundance. Pages 37–54 in Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment: Chemical Effects on Populations, Ecosystems, and Landscapes. R.A. Pastorok, S.M. Bartell, S. Ferson, and L.R. Ginzburg (eds.), Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton, Florida.

Regan, H.M., B.K. Hope and S. Ferson. 2002. Analysis and portrayal of uncertainty in a food web exposure model. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 8: 1757-1777. [Named Best HERA Paper of the Year for 2002]

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, V. Kreinovich, L. Longpré and M. Aviles. 2002. Computing variance for interval data is NP-hard. ACM SIGACT News 33(2): 108-118.

Ricci, P.F., and S. Ferson 2002. Detecting and explaining rare event-clusters in sparse data sets: some initial results. Technology 9:85-94.

Sentz, K., and S. Ferson. 2002. Combination of Evidence in Dempster-Shafer Theory. Sandia National Laboratories, SAND 2002-0835, Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Ferson, S., L. Ginzburg, V. Kreinovich and H. Schulte. 2001. Interval computations as a particular case of a general scheme involving classes of probability distributions. Pages 355-366 in Scientific Computing, Validated Numerics, Interval Methods, J.W. von Gudenberg and W. Kraemer (eds.), Kluwer, Dordrecht.

Ferson, S. 2001. Checking for errors in calculations and software: dimensional balance and conformance of units. Accountability in Research: Policies and Quality Assurance 8:261-279.

Colyvan, M., Regan, H.M., and Ferson, S. 2001. Is it a crime to belong to a reference class? Journal of Political Philosophy 9(2):168–181. Reprinted in H.E. Kyburg, and M. Thalos, (eds.). 2003. Probability is the Very Guide of Life, Chicago: Open Court, pages 331-347.

Moore, D.R.J., A. Pawlisz, A. Hart, W.A. Warren-Hicks, and S. Ferson. 2001. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Pesticides in Europe: Implementation and Research Needs, A. Hart, editor, Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, U.K.

Ferson, S. 2001. Probability bounds analysis solves the problem of incomplete specification in probabilistic risk and safety assessements. Risk-Based Decisionmaking in Water Resources IX, Y.Y. Haimes, D.A. Moser and E.Z. Stakhiv (eds.), American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia, page 173-188.

Spencer, M., N.S. Fisher, W.-X. Wang, S. Ferson. 2001. Temporal variability and ignorance in Monte Carlo contaminant bioaccumulation models: a case study with selenium in Mytilus edulis. Risk Analysis 21: 383-394.

Burgman, M.A., D.R. Breininger, B.W. Duncan and S. Ferson. 2001. Setting reliability bounds on habitat suitability indicies. Ecological Applications 11: 70–78.

Crutchfield, J., and S. Ferson. 2000. Predicting recovery of a fish population after heavy metal impacts. Environmental Science and Policy 3: S183-S189.

Akçakaya, H.R., S. Ferson, M. Burgman, D. Keith, G. Mace and C. Todd. 2000. Making consistent IUCN classifications under uncertainty. Conservation Biology 14: 1001-1013.

Fortin, M.-J., R.J. Olson, S. Ferson. L. Iverson, D. Levine, K. Buteras, V. Klemas and C. Hunsaker. 2000. Detecting boundaries and gradients associated with ecotones. Landscape Ecology 15: 453-466.

Cooper, J.A., S. Ferson and D.K. Cooper. 2000. Constrained mathematics for calculating logical safety and reliability probabilities with uncertain inputs. Journal of System Safety 36: 23-29.

Goldwasser, L., L. Ginzburg and S. Ferson. 2000. Variability and measurement error in extinction risk analysis: the northern spotted owl on the Olympic Peninsula. Pages 169-187 in Quantitative Methods for Conservation Biology, S. Ferson and M. Burgman (eds.), Springer Verlag, New York.

Ferson, S. 2000. Do unto the environment as you would have the environment do unto you: review of Simon Levin’s Fragile Dominion: Complexity and the Commons. Ecology 81: 2054–2054.

Forthcoming works

Siegrist, J., S. Ferson and A. Finkel. 2014. Advanced bias correction: factoring out bias and overconfidence. (draft manuscript) http://www.ramas.com/health/abc.pdf

Siegrist, J., C.C. Luhmann and S. Ferson. 2014. How ambiguity causes loss aversion. (draft manuscript) http://www.ramas.com/health/lossaversion.pdf

Siegrist, J., S. Ferson and A. Finkel. 2014. Ravnoprochnost: Avoiding unnecessary uncertainty in cost–benefit calculations. (draft manuscript) http://www.ramas.com/health/ravnoprochnost.pdf

Ferson, S., R. Nelsen, J. Hajagos. D. Berleant, J. Zhang, W.T. Tucker, L. Ginzburg and W.L. Oberkampf. Myths about correlations and dependencies and their implications for risk analysis.

Other technical reports (2000-present)

Ferson, S., et al. 2009. Accounting for epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in early system design. SBIR Research Project (NNL07AA06C) Report to NASA, Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia.

Hart, A. et al. 2007. EUFRAM: Concerted action to develop a European Framework for probabilistic risk assessment of the environmental impacts of pesticides. (Coauthor in work package 4 “Methods of uncertainty analysis” and work package 5 “Report on probabilistic approaches for typical datasets”). Report to the European Commission’s 5^th Framework Programme. www.eufram.com

Ferson, S. 2005. Bayesian methods in risk assessment. Report for Service Environnement & Procédés, Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM), Orléans, France. www.ramas.com/bayes.pdf

[Ferson, S.]. 2005. Calculation of exposure point concentrations. Attachment 4 in Human Health Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 1, prepared by Weston Solutions for US Army Corps of Engineers and US Environmental Protection Agency. Attachment 4, physical pages 876-923 of http://www.epa.gov/region1/ge/thesite/restofriver/reports/hhra_219190/219190_HHRA_Vol1.pdf

[Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson]. 2005. Probabilistic risk assessment. Section 6 in Human Health Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 4, Appendix C, Fish and Waterfowl Consumption Risk Assessment, prepared by Weston Solutions for US Army Corps of Engineers and US EPA. Physical pages 293-447 of http://www.epa.gov/region1/ge/thesite/restofriver/reports/hhra_219190/219190_HHRA_Vol4_FW.pdf

[Tucker, W.T. and S. Ferson]. 2005. Probability bounds analysis approach. Attachment 5 in Human Health Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 1, prepared by Weston Solutions for US Army Corps of Engineers and US Environmental Protection Agency. Attachment 5, physical pages 924-993 of http://www.epa.gov/region1/ge/thesite/restofriver/reports/hhra_219190/219190_HHRA_Vol1.pdf

[Tucker, W.T., M.E. Thompson, J.P. Lortie, D.J. Fort, and S. Ferson]. 2004. A stochastic population model incorporating PCB effects for wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) breeding in vernal pools associated with the Housatonic River, Pittsfield to Lenoxdale, Massachusetts. Attachment E.4 in Ecological Risk Assessment, GE/Housatonic River Site, Rest of River, Volume 5, Appendix E, Assessment Endpoint—Amphibians, prepared by Weston Solutions for US Army Corps of Engineers and US EPA. Physical pages 381-447 in http://www.epa.gov/region1/ge/thesite/restofriver/reports/era_nov04/215498_ERA_FNL_Vol5_AppE_F_G.pdf

Ginzburg, L. R., Akcakaya, R., Ferson S., Bridges, T., Dortch, M., Kennedy, B. 2002. Bridging the gulf between ecologists and engineers: Approaches toward integrating physical-chemical and population-dynamic models, in National TMDL Science and Policy 2002 Conference Proceedings, Water Environment Federation.

Pedagogical and professional websites [creator, primary author, and maintainer]

Beyond the statisticians’s bag of marbles: How binary sampling data informs us when we can’t make the usual assumptions, https://sites.google.com/site/beyondthebagofmarbles/

Confidence boxes: Reviews and demonstration papers about statistical confidence structures in risk analysis, https://sites.google.com/site/confidenceboxes/

Comparing binomial rates with poor data: Roundup of software tools to compare binomial rates under poor data, https://sites.google.com/site/comparingrateswithpoordata/

Dilation: Dilation is a phenomenon in which learning more information necessarily increases your uncertainty, https://sites.google.com/site/probabilisticdilation/

Fréchet inequalities : Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frechet_inequalities

Probability box: Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_box

Probability bounds analysis: Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_bounds_analysis

Robust Bayes analysis: Wikipedia article, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_Bayes_analysis

Uncertainty projection in engineered systems: Roundup of the reports delivered to the Sandia Epistemic Uncertainty project, https://sites.google.com/site/uncertaintyprojection/

Uncertainty sayings: Some quotable or amusing quips, bon mots, clichés and platitudes, https://sites.google.com/site/uncertaintysayings/

Computing

Languages: Python, R, Matlab, C, C++, Pascal, Basic, Rexx, Fortran, Logo, assembler. Environments: Novell (administrator, supervisor); IBM 4361 under VM/CMS; Sperry Rand Univac 1170 under Exec 8 and under Unix; DEC PDP–11 45; 7/80 under RSTS–E (operator); DEC PDP–10; IBM 3330 under JCL; ModComp IV 25 and 35 (operator); various microcomputers (by IBM, Apple, HP, etc.)

2009 Directed the development of Excel add-ins for interval arithmetic and probability bounds analysis for use within the ICEMaker extreme computing environment for engineering design

2006 Developed an implementation of probability bounds analysis for the R statistical computing environment

2004–2005 Directed the development of Constructor, a tool for selecting probability distributions, p-boxes and Dempster-Shafer structures from qualitative and quantitative information, www.ramas.com/constructor.htm

1993–2001 Directed the development of Risk Calc, a comprehensive implementation of interval, fuzzy and probabilistic arithmetic under the Windows environment, distributed by Lewis Publishers (an imprint of CRC Press)

1996–1997 Co-developed RAMAS Ecotoxicology, software for analyzing bioassay data to predict population- and community-level consequences of environmental toxicants, distributed by Applied Biomathematics

1994 Co-developed Units Calculator, microcomputer software for doing arithmetic on numbers with units and dimensional analysis on calculation streams. The software was reviewed in The Quarterly Review of Biology 69:315

1990–1993 Developed RAMAS Stage, software for stochastic stage-based population modeling and population viability analysis, distributed by Applied Biomathematics

1988–1992 Software Review Editor for Mathematical Biosciences

1987 Directed development of RAMAS which was designated “Distinguished Software'” in a national competition sponsored by EDUCOM and the National Center for Research to Improve Postsecondary Teaching and Learning

1985 Taught Pascal to mixed class of graduates and undergraduates

1980–1985 Research programmer in video-based image analysis for taxonomy

1979 Oak Ridge National Laboratory visiting research programmer, with Robert Luxmoore, adapting Ek and Monserud’s model FOREST to include effects of air pollution

Vision

The notions of imprecise probabilities imply that there is a kind of uncertainty that cannot be expressed by probability alone. This upsets many probabilists, just as non-Euclidean geometries at first enraged some mathematicians. I believe that probabilists will come to understand and embrace, and eventually depend on, the ideas behind imprecise probabilities, just as mathematicians emerged through their turmoil to understand that non-Euclidean thinking enriches geometry and greatly broadens its applications.

Two great arcs are now bending through history as the theory of imprecise probabilities matures as a discipline. The first sees scientists and engineers developing technologies for making calculations that require only the assumptions they feel comfortable making, rather than their being forced to make untenable assumptions in order to get any quantitative answer at all. The second great arc is that everyone who must do calculations will come to understand that computation does not require infinitely precise numbers, that uncertainty analysis is fully half the story in almost any computation, and that it is possible and worthwhile to compute with what we actually know, rather than making pretend-calculations with what we would like to know. We should undertake practical steps that extend these arcs.

Links to on-line profiles

Google Scholar http://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6Dz2_9wAAAAJ&hl

ResearchGate https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Scott_Ferson/

ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2613-0650

Microsoft Academic https://academic.microsoft.com/search?q=Scott%20Ferson

LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/pub/scott-ferson/10/b51/39b

Duolingo https://www.duolingo.com/profile/ScottFerson (French total XP: 48705)