Samer F. Shousha

I am Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Brasil Warrant Gestão de Investimentos (BWGI) and a part-time lecturer at Insper, where I teach both at the undergraduate and graduate level, and co-advise doctoral students. Previously, I worked as Senior Economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, International Finance Division, Emerging Market Economies Section,  and as an Economist at Banco BBM. My research focuses on International Macroeconomics and Finance. I received my  M.A. in Economics from PUC-RIO and my Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University.

Email: samershousha@gmail.com

CV (Last updated in July 2023)

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Publications

"Determinants of Global Neutral Interest Rates", with Thiago R. T. Ferreira. November 2023. Slides. Journal of International Economics, Volume 143.

IF Discussion Papers 1315

We provide a comprehensive account of the determinants of global longer-run neutral interest rates—the real component of policy interest rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their longer-run trends. Using a cross-country model for 11 advanced economies in the 1960–2019 period, we simultaneously account for productivity, demographics, global supply of safe assets, demand factors for safe assets, and global spillovers faced by each economy from the rest of the world’s developments. We find two main results: safe asset supply is a major determinant of neutral rates, with its positive contribution since 2008 counteracting negative contributions from many other determinants, and global spillovers are important determinants of neutral rates’ trajectories and co-movements. . 

FEDS Note based on the paper: Longer-Run Neutral Rates in Major Advanced Economies. December 2022.


Working Papers

"The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Channels and Impacts", with Bruno Cavani. February 2024. Slides. Resubmitted to the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

IF Discussion Papers 1258

This paper shows that dollar appreciations lead to declines in GDP, investment, and credit to the private sector in emerging market economies (EMEs). These results imply that the transmission of dollar movements to EMEs occurs mainly through financial conditions rather than net exports, contrary to what would be expected from the conventional Mundell-Fleming model. Moreover, the central role of the U.S. dollar in global trade invoicing and financing - the dominant currency paradigm - and the increased integration of EMEs into international supply chains weaken the traditional trade channel. Finally, as expected if financial vulnerabilities are prominent, EMEs with higher exposure to credit denominated in dollars and lower monetary policy credibility experience greater contractions during dollar appreciations.


"International Reserves, Credit Constraints, and Systemic Sudden Stops". November 2021.

IF Discussion Papers 1205

Winner of the Central Bank of Brazil Economics and Finance Award, 2017.

Why do emerging economies simultaneously hold high levels of international reserves and foreign liabilities? Moreover, why did these countries barely depleted reserves during the Global Financial Crisis? I argue that including reserves as an implicit insurance for foreign borrowing in a small open economy subject to credit constraints can explain these facts. In this setting, the optimal policy yields reserves and foreign liabilities levels similar to those of Latin America. Additionally, it implies reserve accumulation before sudden stops and modest depletion during them. Finally, keeping reserves constant yields results close to optimal, clarifying why they might not be used during crises.


"Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Booms and Busts: The Role of Financial Frictions".  Under revision.

What are the effects of commodity price shocks on real activity for small open commodity exporters? Using a panel VAR and an estimated open economy multi-sector model with financial frictions, this paper shows that commodity price shocks are an important source of business cycle  fluctuations for small open commodity exporters, with stronger effects on emerging countries. Moreover, the main channel accounting for different effects among emerging and advanced economies is the response of country interest rates to these shocks and differences in firms' working capital constraints. Finally, the presence of balance sheet mismatches and leverage constraints in the banking sector do not substantially contribute either to the amplification of the shocks or the heterogeneity of responses among emerging and advanced countries.


Book Chapters

"Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: The Case of Brazil"

in Jonathan A. Batten, Peter G. Szilagyi (ed.) The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis), vol. 93, pp. 547-579.


Theses

"Essays on International Macroeconomics", Ph.D. Thesis, Columbia University Economics Department, 2016. Advisors: Martin Uribe (main), Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, and Jose Alexandre Scheinkman.


"Term Structure of Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Dynamics in Brazil", Master Thesis, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro Economics Department, 2005. Advisor: Ilan Goldfajn (in Portuguese)

Winner of the 30th BNDES Prize in Economics, 2008.


Dormant Research


"The Real Consequences of Countercyclical Capital Controls", with Savitar Sundaresan

"A Machine Learning Approach for Currency Crises", with Seunghoon Na.


Discussions

"Unprecedented Changes in the Terms of Trade", by Mariano Kulish, and Daniel M. Rees, XVIII Annual Inflation Targeting Seminar, Banco Central do Brasil, May 2016.

"Stimulative Effects of Temporary Corporate Tax Cuts", by Rui Castro and William Gbohoui, 5o Encontro Luso-Brasileiro de Economia, September 2016.

"Macroprudential Policy with Liquidity Panics", by Daniel Garcia-Macia, and Alonso Villacorta, XII Annual Seminar on Risk, Financial Stability, and Banking, August 2017.

"The Global Financial Resource Curse", by Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf, ECB, FRB, and NY Fed Global Research Forum, May 2021.

"Reserve Accumulation, Growth and Financial Crises", by Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf, Central Bank of Chile - IDB - JIE Conference, May 2021.

"Short and Variable Lags", by Gerly Buda, Vasco M. Carvalho, Giancarlo Corsetti, Joao B. Duarte, Stephen Hansen, Afonso S. Moura, Alvaro Ortiz, Tomasa Rodrigo, Jose V. Rodriguez, Mora, Guilherme Alves da Silva, 11o Encontro Luso-Brasileiro de Economia, November 2023.