Samad Sarferaz
Head of Research Division Macroeconomic Forecasting and Data Science
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
Research interests: Empirical Macroeconomics, Bayesian Time Series Econometrics, Macroeconomic Survey Experiments and Quantitative Economic History
The Big Railroad Push: How Policies Change Coordinated Expectations, with Lars Boerner and Carsten Burhop.
Colors of Growth, with Lars Boerner, Tim Reinicke and Battista Severgnini.
Immigration and Inequality: A Micro-Macro Approach, with Francesco Furlanetto and Ørjan Robstad.
Monetary Policy Shocks and Firms' Investment Decisions, with Klaus Abberger, Alexander Rathke and Pascal Seiler.
Fiscal Responses to Monetary Policy: Insights From a Survey of Government Officials, with Andreas Dibiasi, Heiner Mikosch and Armin Steinbach.
Seeing and Hearing is Believing: The Role of Audiovisual Communication in Shaping Inflation Expectations, with Elliott Ash, Heiner Mikosch and Alexis Perakis,
European Economic Review, forthcoming.
Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs and Firm Beliefs: Evidence From a Representative Survey, with Andreas Dibiasi and Heiner Mikosch,
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2025, 17(3), pp. 36-73.
Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households, with Heiner Mikosch, Chris Roth and Johannes Wohlfahrt,
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2024, 16(2), pp. 375-405.
Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Cross-Country Analysis, with Andreas Dibiasi,
European Economic Review, 2023, 153, pp.104383. Click here to download our data.
Can GDP Measurement Be Further Improved? Data Revision and Reconciliation, with Jan Jacobs, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden,
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, 40, pp.423-431.
Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations, with Francesco Furlanetto and Francesco Ravazzolo,
The Economic Journal, 2019, 129, pp.311-337.
Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction and Fiscal Inflation: A Tale of Three Countries, with Martin Kliem and Alexander Kriwoluzky,
European Economic Review, 2016, 88, pp.158-184.
The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach, with Albrecht Ritschl and Martin Uebele,
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(1), pp. 159–172.
On the Low-Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation, with Martin Kliem and Alexander Kriwoluzky,
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31(3), pp.566–58.
Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931, with Albrecht Ritschl,
International Economic Review, 2014, 55(2), pp. 349–373.
Tracking Down Germany’s Pre-World War I Business Cycle: A Dynamic Factor Model for 1820-1913, with Martin Uebele,
Explorations in Economic History, 2009, 46(3), pp. 368–387.
Macro and Micro Level Impulse Responses: A Survey Experimental Identification Procedure, with Matthias Bannert, Dirk Drechsel and Heiner Mikosch.
How are Firms Affected by Exchange Rate Shocks? Evidence From Survey Based Impulse Responses, with Matthias Bannert, Dirk Drechsel and Heiner Mikosch.
Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR, with Alexander Rathke.
Modeling and Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality: A Bayesian Approach, with Wolfgang Reichmuth.
The Influence of the Business Cycle on Mortality, with Wolfgang Reichmuth.