RESEARCH

Research interests: international finance, international trade, global supply chains,  financial crises, external sector

WORK IN PROGRESS

External Sector Implications of the Global Dollar Cycle, with Cian Allen, Lukas Boer, Allan Dizioli and Racha Moussa 

2023 IMF External Sector Report

The Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition, with Lucas Boehnert, Andrea Pescatori and Martin Stuermer

IMF Working Paper 2023/97 [VoxEU blog summary]

Climate policies and  External Adjustment, with Luciana Juvenal, Weifeng Liu and Warwick McKibbin

IMF Working Paper 2024/162; CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19350

Trade Barriers and Exchange Rates, with Nikhil Patel and Han Sun

New Open Economy Macroeconomics with GVCs , with Robert C. Johnson 

JOURNAL ARTICLES

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets, with Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli and Bertrand Gruss

International Journal of Central Banking, 2022, 18(4)

Expectations’ Anchoring and Inflation Persistence, with Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli and Bertrand Gruss

Journal of International Economics, 2021, 132(September)

Measuring Trade in Value Added with Firm-Level Data, with Ayumu Ken Kikkawa

Journal of International Economics, 2021, 129(March)

Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock, with Francesca Caselli, Francesco Grigoli and Bertrand Gruss

Economics Letters, 2020, 188(March), with F. Caselli, F. Grigoli and B. Gruss

The Welfare Consequences of Income-Induced Expenditure Switching, with Julian di Giovanni

American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2018, 108(May)

Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates, with Robert C. Johnson

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2017, 9(4) [Dataset] 

Income-Induced Expenditure Switching, with Julian di Giovanni 

American Economic Review, 2016, 106(12) [Appendix] [VoxEU blog summary]

Intermediate Inputs, External Rebalancing and Relative Price Adjustment

Journal of International Economics, 2014, 94(2)

The Great Trade Collapse, with Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

Annual Review of Economics, 2013, 5(1)

Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade, with Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2011, 101(3)

The Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources, with Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Journal of International Economics, 2011, 84(1) [earlier WP version] 

Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession, with Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

IMF Economic Review, 2010, 58(2)

Aggregate Investment Expenditures on Tradable and Nontradable Goods

Review of Economic Dynamics, 2008, 11(4)

Efficiency of Slovenian Banking Sector in EU Context, with Piritta Sorsa

Journal for Money and Banking, 2008, 57(11) [earlier WP version] 

US Imbalances: The Role of Technology and Policy, with Luca Dedola and Frank Smets

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2007, 26(4)

Trade Deficits in the Baltic States: How Long Will the Party Last? with Kristian J. Hartelius

Review of Economic Dynamics, 2006, 9(1)

DORMANT WORKING PAPERS 

Value-Added Exchange Rates, with Robert C. Johnson 

October 2012, NBER Working Paper #18498

• [Dataset] Contains Value-Added REER series for 1970-2009

• [VoxEU blog summary]

Post-Socialist Transition in Central and Eastern Europe: A Model-Based Interpretation

November 2007