Below are details of our forthcoming and past meetings. Slides from the presentations, where available, are at the bottom of this page.
24th October 2018 -- Predicting volcanic super-eruptions (Postponed from March 2018)
Title Apocalyptic volcanic super eruption that could DESTROY civilisation is much closer than we thought, say experts.
Abstract In a recent paper we re-estimated the global magnitude-frequency relationship of large explosive volcanic
eruptions (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.015). I will describe how we addressed the twin problems of
mis- and under-recording in the historical record, and how we quantified our uncertainties. I will also discuss
our experience of the paper catching the attention of the mainstream media (the title is from the Daily Mail)
and, if time permits, some of the wider implications. The talk is non-technical, in fact I don't think there are any equations at all!
Venue George Davies Centre, University of Leicester.
Timings 12:10 Refreshments available (room 1.38); 12:30-13:30 talk (room 0.25).
Past Meetings
18th May 2018 -- A Gentle Introduction to Defined Benefits and Defined Contributions Pension Schemes.
Title A gentle introduction to Defined Benefits and Defined Contributions pension schemes.
Abstract Pensions have captured the headlines recently. Large estimated deficits in defined benefit schemes such as Carillion
raise questions about the balance of claims of shareholders and future
pensioners, and can even contribute to closure of a company, as with BHS.
This
lecture will briefly explain and contrast defined benefit (DB) and
defined contribution (DC) schemes. I will then discuss a thorough
Canadian review of what groups, such as workers, taxpayers and wider
society might gain or lose from different approaches to provision for
retirement. If time permits, there will be graphs.
Venue University of Nottingham. Speaker Prof. Sir David Spiegelhalter (RSS president 2017-2018; Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge).
Title Does a university education increase the risk of a brain tumour? The ups and (many) downs of trying to be a 'public statistician'.
Abstract Statisticians can have special insights into naughty numbers and shabby statistics in the news, but have not tended to have much of a public role. My job is to try and improve the way that stats and risk are discussed in society, and I will relate both positive and negative experiences from radio, TV, print and online, selecting from topics such as alcohol, sky-diving, sex, and the risks of burnt toast. You can share the panic at being asked unanswerable questions live on radio, and the joys of doing fairly well in Winter Wipeout, due to careful study of the statistics
Venue University of Nottingham.
12th October 2017 -- An introduction to modelling soccer
23rd May 2017 -- Use of historical data to supplement a future study: opportunities and challengesSpeaker: Dr Rob Mastrodomenico (Global Sports Statistics)
Title: An introduction to modelling soccer.
Abstract: The
increased data in sports has provided statisticians with the tools to
build models of sporting events. This talk will look to show how data
from soccer matches can be used to create models with the ability to
predict upcoming matches. Starting from a very simple approach we will
show how a modified poisson approach is able to characterise the
dynamics of the beautiful game. Following from the model definition we
fit it on data from England and show how the output can be used in
predicting games from the English Premier League.
Venue University of Nottingham; Physics Building, room C27.
Speaker Nicholas Galwey (GlaxoSmithKline, UK).
Title Use of historical data to supplement a future study: opportunities and challenges.
Abstract There are strong arguments, ethical, logistical and financial, for supplementing the evidence from a new clinical trial using data from previous trials with similar control treatments. There is a consensus that historical information should be down-weighted or discounted relative to information from the new trial, but the determination of the appropriate degree of discounting is a major difficulty. The degree of discounting can be represented by a bias parameter with specified variance, but a comparison between the historical and new data gives only a poor estimate of this variance. Hence, if no strong assumption is made concerning its value (i.e. if 'dynamic borrowing' is practiced), there may be little or no gain from using the historical data, in either frequentist terms (type I error rate and power) or Bayesian terms (posterior distribution of the treatment effect). It is therefore best to compare the consequences of a range of assumptions. This presentation will introduce a clear, simple graphical tool for doing so on the basis of the mean square error, and illustrates its use with historical data from clinical trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This approach makes it clear that different assumptions can lead to very different conclusions. External information can sometimes provide strong additional guidance, but different stakeholders may still make very different judgements concerning the appropriate degree of discounting.
28th March 2017 -- Forensics, Genealogy and Richard III.
Title Richard III by numbers: How forensic statistics nailed the identity of the last Plantagenet.
Venue Lecture Theatre 2, Centre for Medicine, University of Leicester. Abstract The story of how the body of Richard III was discovered in a Leicester car park went global in 2013. The discovery and subsequent identification of the skeleton of Richard III beyond any reasonable doubt, was a triumph of multidisciplinary teamwork.
What is less well known is that statistical methods used in forensics and many other disciplines were used by the Leicester Research Team to bring all this evidence together to declare these were the mortal remains of the 'last Plantagenet'. In this talk Prof. Schürer will describe the fascinating step by step story of how the team used forensic statistical methods. These underpinned the multidisciplinary detective work to link Richard’s body with his present day relatives that led to the reinternment of England’s re-discovered lost monarch. 3rd November 2016 -- A pollster and a politician
Speakers Michael Turner (BMG Research) and Nick Palmer (Maths graduate and MP 1997-2010).
Talk titles
(MT) A painful pursuit of accuracy: challenges faced by an industry that seems determined to self-harm (NP) Misleading opinion? How do politicians use polls? Venue Mathematical Sciences Building, University of Nottingham. Abstracts
(MT) (NP)
Title Statistical modelling of availability-to-train in elite sports.
Venue Room A17, Mathematical Sciences Building, University of Nottingham. Abstract Recent
technological advances have allowed the frequent and simultaneous
measurement at small cost of multiple physiological and psychological
aspects of individuals and of their fitness and everyday activity.
Such data are increasingly being used, for example by elite sport
teams to quantify and monitor athlete fatigue and identify the
variables that are important for explaining it, with the aim of
preventing non-functional overreaching.
This talk will briefly discuss the challenges involved in recording and preparing fatigue-related data for statistical analysis, and present results from ongoing research on modelling availability-to-train in terms of other fatigue-related variables. Special care is being taken to use models that can account for both the heterogeneity between athletes and the natural time dependence between measurements.
Title School league tables: the good, the bad and the ugly.
Venue Belvoir City Lounge, University of Leicester. Abstract Since 1992, the Government has published so-called ‘school league
tables’ summarizing the average GCSE attainment and progress made by
pupils in each state-funded secondary school in England. In this talk,
we statistically critique prominent past and current school performance
measures. In particular, we question the Government's justifications for
scrapping their contextual value-added measure, we show fundamental
design flaws in the current expected progress measure, and we highlight
various measurement and interpretation difficulties in reporting
socioeconomic achievement gaps.
The slides of the talk are available at the bottom of this page.
Speaker Paul Robinson (Head of Advanced Analytics, Bank of England).
Title "Big Data" and central banks: opportunities and challenges.
Venue University of Nottingham.
8th October 2015 -- Journal rankings Speaker Prof David Firth (University of Warwick).
Venue Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham.
Abstract The
status of an academic journal has for many years been indicated (to
librarians and others) by its "impact factor". The value of research,
and even of individual researchers, is sometimes assessed (by university
administrators and others) through the impact factors of journals in
which work is published. The impact-factor measure itself has seen
strong criticism in the academic literature, but its use persists.
Statisticians have had relatively little involvement in the
"bibliometrics" (or "scientometrics") field so far. The work reported
in this talk aims to highlight the importance of more principled
approaches to journal ranking, with emphasis on what is measured and how
accurately.Title Journal rankings: Why (and how) should we care? As a case study, and to help catch the minds of research statisticians who might contribute in this area, ranking of the main journals of Statistics is considered in some detail. The methods used are clearly more widely applicable. This talk is based on the paper "Statistical Modelling of Citation Exchange Between Statistics Journals" (joint with C Varin and M Cattelan) which was discussed at an RSS Ordinary Meeting in May 2015. The paper, along with data and R-code to facilitate replication or further development of the work, are available at http://warwick.ac.uk/dfirth. 5th May 2015 -- Have I got Statistics for You! Speaker Andy Sutherland (Former
Head of Profession for Statistics, Health
and Social Care Information Centre)
Venue Ogden Lewis Seminar Suite, University of Leicester.
Title Have I got Statistics for You! Abstract Government depends on statistics to take forward its work, and to make arguments and debate issues in public. The public depend on Government Statistics to inform themselves and to hold Government to account. In this presentation Andy reflects on the various methods and mechanisms which can be used for obtaining and presenting figures for use in political debate, how these are used and, sometimes, abused, and how to find the evidence which may underlie contentious or conflicting claims.
Speaker Prof Peter Diggle (Medical School, Lancaster University; Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool; President of the Royal Statistical Society)
Venue Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham.
Title Model-Based Geostatistics for Prevalence Mapping in Low-Resource Settings Abstract In low-resource settings, prevalence mapping relies on empirical prevalence data from a finite, often spatially sparse, set of surveys of communities within the region of interest, possibly supplemented by remotely sensed images that can act as proxies for environmental risk factors. A standard geostatistical model for data of this kind is a generalized linear mixed model with logistic link, binomial error distribution and a Gaussian spatial process as a stochastic component of the linear predictor.
In this talk, I will first review statistical methods and software associated with this standard model, then consider several methodological extensions whose development has been motivated by the requirements of specific applications. These include: low-rank approximations for use with large data-sets; methods for combining randomised survey data with data from non-randomised, and therefore potentially biased, surveys; spatio-temporal extensions; spatially structured zero-in flation. Finally, I will also describe disease mapping applications that have arisen through collaboration with a range of African public health programmes.
Joint work with Emanuele Giorgi (Medical School, Lancaster University)
|
