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I am Senior Economist in the Monetary Assessment & Strategy Division at the Bank of England, lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Essex, and a research associate at CAMA, ANU.  

My research is in macroeconomics, macroeconometrics, and banking. My recent research has been on the macroeconomic effects of securitization-driven credit flows within the financial system, and the macroeconomic effects of changes to bank capital requirements. I have published work investigating the impact of credit market shocks in driving bond spreads and aggregate activity, and econometric models of the term structure of interest rates.

I have previously held staff economist positions in the Financial Stability Directorate of the Bank of England (2009-2012), where I worked on banking system stress tests; and the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2007-2009), working on the US macroeconomy. I was a visiting economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and a visiting scholar at Stanford University during 2008-2009. Prior to working in central banking, I was a British Academy Postdoc at Nuffield College, Oxford. My DPhil (PhD) thesis at the University of Oxford was advised by John Muellbauer, and won the Edgeworth Prize.

Working papers

Shadow banks and macroeconomic instability [pdf] with Ben Nelson (Bank of England) and Pier Alessandri (Banca d'Italia). Banca d'Italia Working Paper 939 and CAMA Working Paper 78/2013, November 2013.  Some mentions: NEP-DGE blogDavid Andolfatto's blog.  Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Money, Credit & Banking.

Capital regulation and macroeconomic activity: Implications for macroprudential policy (coming soon).


Publications

Stationary and Nonstationary Behaviour of the Term Structure: A Nonparametric Characterisation [pdf] with Clive G. Bowsher (Bristol).  Applied Mathematical FinanceVol. 20, No. 2, April 2013, 137-166.

Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults [pdf]Journal of Economic Dynamics & ControlVol 36, April 2012, 568-584.

The dynamics of economic functions: Modelling and forecasting the yield curve [pdf] with Clive G. Bowsher (Bristol)Journal of the American Statistical AssociationVol. 103, No. 484, December 2008, 1419-1437.

Credit crisis casts shadow over commercial real estateFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter Vol.3, No.12, 2008.


Other writing

Financial frictions in macroeconomics. Non-technical review, June 2013.

Selected presentations & conferences

2015 ASSA - IBEFA Meetings
2014 CFCM Conference on Effective Macroprudential Instruments: 'Capital regulation and macroeconomic activity' [slides]
2014 University of Glasgow
2012 Banque de France-TSE Financial Stability seminar
2012 NASM Econometric Society, Northwestern
2012 University of Western Ontario: 'Shadow banks and macroeconomic instability' [slides]
2010 Belgian National Bank: 'Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations?' [slides]
2009 Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2008 Texas Monetary Conference, FRB Dallas, Co-organiser
2008 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: 'The dynamics of economic functions: Modeling and forecasting the yield curve' [slides]

Selected discussions

2011 ESCB Day Ahead Conference, Discussant: Schwaab, Koopman and Lucas, 'Systemic risk diagnostics' [slides]
2009 Sveriges Riksbank, Discussant: Frame, Hancock & Passmore [slides]
2008 FRB Kansas City, System Macro Meeting, Discussant: Gilchrist, Yankov & Zakrajsek, 'Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations' [slides]
Subpages (2): Research teaching