(9) The Value of Renegotiation Frictions: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate, with David Glancy and Lara Loewenstein, 2025.
Journal of Financial Intermediation, 101144, 62, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2025.101144.
Summary: Develops a tradeoff theory model in which lenders vary in their modification technologies that is consistent with facts on modification and delinquency rates in the commercial real estate market. In equilibrium, the calibrated model also produces higher LTVs and spreads for CMBS relative to portfolio lenders, consistent with the data. Model counterfactuals demonstrate the heterogeneous effects of reducing modification frictions at CMBS.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: CRE, banking; Media: Inside Mortgage Finance
(8) CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing, with David Glancy and Lara Loewenstein, 2024.
Real Estate Economics, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12510.
Summary: Guided by a model where aging properties have the option to be redeveloped at a cost, we construct a measure of redevelopment option values and show that buyers use mortgage financing based on the estimated redevelopment option and the purchaser’s experience in renovation or construction activity. These effects grew in magnitude during the pandemic, consistent with COVID-19 increasing the importance of renovation and redevelopment options, in particular for office properties.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: CRE
(7) Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans, with David Glancy, Lara Loewenstein, and Joe Nichols, 2023.
Real Estate Economics, 51(5): 1108-1136.
Summary: Recourse loans are allowed lower loan rate spreads and higher LTVs, consistent with recourse reducing default risk. Recourse also affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Loans with recourse were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: CRE, banking
(6) Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market, with David Glancy, John Krainer, and Joe Nichols, 2022.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 55(4): 2029–2080.
Summary: Develops a model that can match novel facts on the loan portfolios of bank and nonbank lenders in the commercial real estate market. Examines implications for how the market responds to supply shocks and regulations.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: CRE, banking
(5) Did QE Lead Banks to Relax their Bank Lending Standards? Evidence from the Federal Reserve's LSAPs, with Stephan Luck and Tom Zimmermann, 2022.
Journal of Banking and Finance, 138 (May).
Summary: Exploits banks’ differential exposure to MBS prior to QE1 and QE3 to examine the extent to which QE1 and QE3 affected lending standards and risk-taking.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: banking, unconventional policies; Media: Hutchins Roundup
(4) Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession, with Ryan Decker, Byron Lutz, and Chris Nekarda, 2021.
American Economic Association: Papers & Proceedings, 111:267–271.
Note: Papers & Proceedings volumes are not peer reviewed.
Summary: Develops comprehensive estimates of the universe of economic activity to characterize how four government direct lending programs—the Paycheck Protection Program, the Main Street Lending Program, the Corporate Credit Facilities, and the Municipal Lending Facilities—relate to economic activity in the United States.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: macroeconomics (firm dynamics); Applications to: unconventional policies, measurement in statistical surveys; Other Information: Video Link to Andreas Lehnert discussing this work's impact (3:17:10-3:19:17), Longer working paper that also examines how our estimates compare to alternative data sources available as FEDS Working Paper 2020-099.
(3) How do Capital Requirements Affect Loan Rates? Evidence from High Volatility Commercial Real Estate, with David Glancy, 2021.
Review of Corporate Finance Studies, 11(1):88--127.
Summary: The HVCRE rule passed through to loan rates. For each one percentage point increase in required capital, loan rates increased by about 10 basis points. This elasticity is an important input into models performing cost/benefit analyses of increasing capital requirements.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: corporate finance; Applications to: CRE, banking
(2) Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit, with David Zeke, 2020.
Review of Economic Dynamics, 38:94–126.
Summary: Central bank large-scale purchases of private assets can have different effects on the allocation than purchases of government assets.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: macroeconomics (firm dynamics, financial frictions); Applications to: banking, unconventional policies; Media: Bloomberg, Centralbanking.com
(1) Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses, with Gary Smith and Michael Levere, 2009.
Management Science, 55.9:1547–1555.
Summary: Poker players tend to play less cautiously after a big loss.
Additional info: .bib file; Research Areas: behavioral economics (pre-PhD work)