Associate Professor
University of Cambridge
Faculty of Economics
Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge
CB3 9DD, UK
Email: kai.liu@econ.cam.ac.uk
Ph.D. Johns Hopkins, 2011
Research Interest: Labor Economics, Public Economics, Applied Microeconometrics
Working Papers:
16. Returns to Education with Earnings Uncertainty and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle (with Magne Mogstad and Kjell Salvanes). PDF. June 2025.
15. The Decline of Routine Tasks, Education Investments, and Intergenerational Mobility (with Patrick Bennett and Kjell Salvanes). PDF. Online Appendix. May 2024.
14. Understanding Program Complementarities: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of Head Start with Multiple Alternatives (with Marc Chan and Antonio Dalla-Zuanna). PDF. September 2024. Revised and resubmitted, Journal of Political Economy.
13. Understanding Program Complementarities: Estimating the Dynamic Effects of a Training Program with Multiple Alternatives (with Antonio Dalla-Zuanna). New draft coming soon.
Publications:
12. Pulled-in and Crowded-out: Heterogeneous Outcomes of Merit-based School Choice (with Antonio Dalla-Zuanna and Kjell Salvanes). PDF. Revised October 2024. Forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.
11. Changing Families: Family Relationships, Parental Decisions and Child Development (with Marc Chan). PDF. Journal of Labor Economics 43, no. S1 (2025): S399-S444.
10. Health Insurance, Agricultural Production and Investments (with Benjapon Prommawin and Fred Schroyen). PDF. Journal of Health Economics, 97(2), 2024.
9. The Supply of Skill and Endogenous Technical Change: Evidence From a College Expansion Reform (with Pedro Carneiro and Kjell Salvanes). PDF. Journal of the European Economic Association, 21(1), 48-92, 2023.
8. Wage Risk and the Value of Job Mobility in Early Employment Careers. PDF. Journal of Labor Economics, 37 (2019): 139-185 .
7. Life-Cycle and Intergenerational Effects of Child Care Reforms (with Marc Chan). PDF. Online Appendix. Quantitative Economics, 9 (2018): 659-706 .
6. Insuring against Health Shocks: Health Insurance and Household Choices. PDF. Journal of Health Economics, 46 (2016): 16-32.
5. Political Uncertainty and Household Savings (with Rolf Aaberge and Yu Zhu). PDF. Journal of Comparative Economics, 45 (2017): 154-170. Coverage: IZA Newsroom
4. Good Skills in Bad Times: Cyclical Skill Mismatch and the Long-term Effects of Graduating in a Recession (with Kjell Salvanes and Erik Sorensen). PDF. European Economic Review, 84 (2016): 3-17 (lead article). Coverage: OECD blog
3. Explaining the Gender Wage Gap: Estimates from a Dynamic Model of Job Changes and Hours Changes. PDF. Quantitative Economics, 7 (2016): 411–447.
2. Bad times at a tender age - how education dampens the impact of graduating in a recession (with Erik Sorensen and Kjell Salvanes). PDF. Nordic Economic Policy Review (2014): 51-73.
1. Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China (with Marcos Chamon and Eswar Prasad). PDF. Journal of Development Economics, 105 (2013): 164-177. Coverage: Vox, TIME