PREVIEW - T20i - ENGLAND vs PAKISTAN, 7/9/16


Wednesday, 7th September, 2016.

Pakistan's tour of England concludes today with a one-off T20i, and the visitors will be looking to return home on a positive note, after being drubbed in the one-day series, having performed quite admirably in the tests.

Today's match is a day/night affair, with proceedings getting underway at 6:30pm UK time, and the match will be shown live in the UK on Sky Sports 1.  England are the heavy favourites, pre-toss, trading at around 1.40 (implied predicted win percentage of around 71%) currently on Betfair.

Weather-wise, a full game - a luxury in T20 internationals in Manchester previously with three of six being concluded as a no result - is virtually guaranteed.  I live around 30 minutes from the venue and my home office currently is enjoying sunshine streaming through the windows, and a warm 75 degrees - almost unheard of in the UK in September - is anticipated.  Furthermore, dew isn't anticipated in the second innings, with the predicted temperature during the second innings around 10 degrees above the forecasted dew point.

Ground data is always useful for pre-match analysis and trading plans, and my ground database has a decent sample of T20 matches at Old Trafford, in T20 Blast and T20 Internationals, from 2014 onwards.  

1st Innings Scores:-

Highest Score: 231
Lowest Score: 124
Mean Score (for matches where full quota of 20 overs was permitted): 168
Mean 1st Innings Runs Per Over:- 8.42

The above stats indicate that in the first innings, the venue is very batsman friendly, with the mean first innings score of 168 being around nine runs above average, and the mean first innings runs per over being far in excess of the mean figure from 2014 onwards of 8.06 mean.

Chasing Teams:-

45.5% of chasing teams in the sample at Old Trafford have won or got within 10 runs of the 1st innings totals - this is well below the mean percentage for chasing teams around the world from 2014 onwards.  

The data on first innings scores and chasing teams indicates that there is a strong venue advantage to batting first, which is quite unusual for T20s...

Historically, Old Trafford has had a big advantage to batting first in T20s...

Overall Venue Data:-

Mean Runs Per Over: 8.17
Mean Runs Per Wicket: 23.24

The overall venue data shows that the runs per over is higher than the 8.08 worldwide T20 sample mean, and the runs per wicket of 23.24 is a fair bit lower than the 25.10 worldwide mean.  

There is also - as mentioned previously - a bias towards batting first at Old Trafford.  Teams batting second achieved just 7.91 runs per over, which is 0.17 runs per over below the worldwide T20 sample mean, 0.26 runs per over below the venue overall mean and a huge 0.51 runs per over below the first innings venue mean.

Squad Information:-

Please note that the 2014-2016 Adjusted T20 International average takes into account innings difficulty from players' matches around the world, and relates them to the standard of the T20 International.  These are a player's expected averages/strike rates against the average bowler in the relevant format.  Generally speaking, it is slightly harder to bat in T20 Internationals than most domestic T20 leagues around the world.  

Pakistan T20 domestic (non PSL) is a very weak standard, as it translates badly to T20 internationals.  Considering this, looking at averages without adjusting for innings difficulty is utterly worthless, as it would give a very unrealistic view of Pakistan's players - effectively, failure to adjust for innings difficulty would make a Pakistan player look much better than their actual level.

England

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Average

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Strike Rate

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Average Mean Deviation

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Strike Rate Mean Deviation

T20i Adjusted Bowling Average

T20i Adjusted Bowling Economy

T20i Final Bowling Ave Deviation

T20i Final Bowling Econ Deviation










Eoin Morgan (c)

24.26

122.32

0.97

0.91

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Moeen Ali

19.71

134.11

0.79

1.00

27.90

7.67

0.90

1.05

Sam Billings

15.28

126.41

0.61

0.94

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Chris Jordan

18.36

119.36

0.73

0.89

24.60

8.41

1.02

0.96

Jos Buttler

28.56

147.46

1.14

1.09

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Alex Hales

22.30

132.27

0.89

0.98

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Tymal Mills

8.20

100.00

0.33

0.74

19.00

7.69

1.32

1.05

Liam Plunkett

13.32

143.61

0.53

1.07

20.87

7.55

1.20

1.07

Adil Rashid

13.82

107.15

0.55

0.80

22.78

7.07

1.10

1.14

Joe Root

35.78

133.97

1.43

0.99

51.73

9.54

0.49

0.85

Jason Roy

29.19

144.96

1.16

1.08

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Ben Stokes

16.56

141.17

0.66

1.05

36.59

9.29

0.69

0.87

David Willey

20.70

144.84

0.82

1.08

22.13

7.83

1.13

1.03

Mark Wood

7.93

95.00

0.32

0.71

26.57

7.87

0.94

1.03


England have quite a consistent T20 squad which is very focused towards players with high strike rates.  Jos Buttler, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes and David Willey, as well as bowler Liam Plunkett, boast adjusted strike rates a fair bit in excess of the average T20 international batsman, whilst Joe Root (adjusted average of 1.43x the T20 international mean) provides stability.

Captain Eoin Morgan's ODI data was discussed here recently, amongst quite a bit of controversy, and it's interesting that his T20 numbers don't stack up either in comparison to many of his team-mates (and players who aren't included in the squad).  Sub wicket-keeper Sam Billings is another player whose numbers question his selection.

Captain Eoin Morgan still has plenty to prove with the bat, in recent years...

Considering the depth of England's batting - all players with the exception of Tymal Mills and Mark Wood have adjusted averages in excess of 13, and most have reasonable strike rates also - it's very tough to see England to post a low total batting first at a venue which favours taking this option.  I'm certainly not brave enough to suggest they'd get close to yesterday's world record by Australia, against Sri Lanka, but they definitely have decent potential for a relatively big score batting first here.  Following team announcements, I'll try and tweet modelled runlines if England bat first.

England's T20 bowling has also improved of late, and the likes of Reece Topley (through injury) and Jade Dernbach have been replaced by better options.  Tymal Mills, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid and David Willey all have numbers better than the average T20 bowler, although Ben Stokes' propensity to be expensive would be a big concern.

Best team based on data (from squad picked by selectors) :-

Roy, Hales, Root, Morgan (c), Buttler (wk), Willey, Ali, Jordan, Plunkett, Rashid, Mills.

Pakistan

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Average

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Strike Rate

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Average Mean Deviation

T20i Basic Adjusted Batting Strike Rate Mean Deviation

T20i Adjusted Bowling Average

T20i Adjusted Bowling Economy

T20i Final Bowling Ave Deviation

T20i Final Bowling Econ Deviation










Sarfraz Ahmed (c)

24.21

116.20

0.96

0.86

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Amad Butt

15.46

137.41

0.62

1.02

25.01

13.83

1.00

0.58

Babar Azam

23.43

99.63

0.93

0.74

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Hasan Ali

4.77

113.20

0.19

0.84

24.18

8.50

1.04

0.95

Imad Wasim

14.62

133.89

0.58

0.99

23.97

7.20

1.05

1.12

Khalid Latif

18.74

111.61

0.75

0.83

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Mohammad Amir

6.13

95.98

0.24

0.71

24.98

6.97

1.00

1.16

Mohammad Nawaz

17.12

96.42

0.68

0.72

26.79

7.72

0.94

1.05

Mohammad Rizwan

20.80

107.40

0.83

0.80

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Sharjeel Khan

19.21

142.57

0.77

1.06

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Shoaib Malik

30.21

118.93

1.20

0.88

37.28

7.72

0.67

1.05

Sohail Tanvir

17.33

121.63

0.69

0.90

35.27

7.70

0.71

1.05

Wahab Riaz

12.16

118.32

0.48

0.88

34.48

8.38

0.73

0.96


Pakistan's squad selection indicates that their selectors have not learnt from the one-day series, which featured players who were unable to score at a fast enough strike rate for the modern game.  Only all-rounder Amad Butt (who has many limitations from a batting average and bowling economy perspective) and Sharjeel Khan have adjusted batting strike rates in excess of the T20 average, whilst Shoaib Malik was the only batsman with an adjusted batting average better than the T20 mean.

Considering this, it's very difficult to see Pakistan score well with the bat, particularly if they chase, given the venue bias towards batting first.  Adjusted strike rates as low as this just aren't going to cut it in any form of cricket, let alone international cricket.

It doesn't have to be like this for Pakistan, as a quick glance through my data found eight batsmen who have expectation of scoring at much quicker rates, and would be a significant upgrade on most of this squad - these players were the following:-

Fakhar Zaman
Nasir Jamshed
Shahzaib Hasan
Shoaib Laghari
Umar Amin
Naved Yasin
Shahid Yousuf
Umar Akmal

Furthermore, Essex all-rounder Ashar Zaidi has superb T20 numbers and would also improve this squad.

Bowling wise, Hasan Ali - tipped here to be a big prospect prior to the ODI series also has reasonable expectation numbers, and the more established talents of Imad Wasim and Mohammad Amir are above average T20 bowlers.

Pakistan's problem comes after this, as they'll need to find eight overs from at least two further players.  All-rounder Mohammad Nawaz looks a fair option, but his batting expectation both from an average and strike rate point of view marks him out as a likely liability.  Sohail Tanvir and Wahab Riaz don't look that in the long-term, they'll be hugely expensive than average, but both don't look like much of a threat for taking wickets.  Amad Butt has gone for over 10 runs an over in Pakistan domestic cricket (these numbers are horrific for that level) and if he bowls today, expect fireworks.

It's tough to pick the best team for Pakistan based on data, as the data doesn't rate many players, but this is what the data decided.

Best team based on data (from squad picked by selectors) :-

Sharjeel Khan, Mohammad Rizwan, Babar Azam, Shoaib Malik, Sarfraz Ahmed (c/wk), Amad Butt, Sohail Tanvir, Imad Wasim, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Hasan Ali.


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