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MALAYSIAN AIRLINES FLIGHT MH370 - ANALYSIS & THEORY This page contains an analysis and suggested theory of the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 using known timelines derived from publicly available information, with all data sources provided. This page is under development; check back often for updates. Last update: April 10, 2014 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IN SIMPLE TERMS: PROJECTED ROUTE  INMARSAT DATA Inmarsat has performed an analysis of their satellite data to determine two arcs upon which current search efforts are focused. Inmarsat has not released raw data from their analysis to the public at this time for confirmation of methodology. Our analysis has only considered the reported satellite "ping" times from their graph to determine a total flight duration. While we have not performed an analysis of the Inmarsat data, we note the graph shows a considerable anomalous event at 18:25 UTC - 18:30 UTC (a series of 3 pings within 5 minutes denoted "Possible turn" on the graph). This time coincides exactly with the suspected time of intercept of Flight UAE343 near Navigation Waypoint MEKAR. The significance of this graph is difficult to interpret without context, however the timing shown is certainly remarkable. We suspect it is possible that this anomaly relates to the course adjustment (deceleration and change in vector) required during interception and alignment with Flight UAE343. A similar (known) slight deceleration occurred at 17:00 UTC, which shows up as a similar dislocation on the Inmarsat graph. We would also note that the graph presented is only valid for a 450 knot solution, specifically. Source: http://www.inmarsat.com/news/malaysian-government-publishes-mh370-details-uk-aaib/  CORRELATION BETWEEN FLIGHT UAE343, MILITARY RADAR PLOT AND INMARSAT ANOMALY FlightRadar24 data shows Flight UAE343 on same vector as military radar plot in same location. Exact location of MH370 approximate due to ambiguity of annotation on radar plot.  SUGGESTED DESTINATION - BANDAR ABBAS, IRAN Assuming the last "ping" represents landing / end of flight, the timeline using FlightRadar24 data fits closely with a diversion to Bandar Abbas. Note: FlightAware data used previously suggested MH370 would only reach OIZC (Chah Bahar) within the timeframe available. (see F.A.Q. page for previous results).  MILITARY RADAR PLOT (PRESS CONFERENCE PHOTO) Source: http://photo.china.com.cn/news/2014-03/21/content_31863360.htm  DETAILED TIMELINE 16:41 UTC MH370 Departs Kuala Lumpur (WKMK) 17:21 UTC MH370 Last transponder contact (IGARI) 17:30 UTC UAE343 Departs Kuala Lumpur (WMKK) 18:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #1 18:22 UTC MH370 Last military radar contact 18:25 UTC - 18:30 UTC MH370 intercepts UAE343 (approx. MEKAR) 19:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #2 20:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #3 21:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #4 22:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #5 23:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #6 23:08 UTC MH370 breaks formation from UAE343 (approx. PARAR) 00:11 UTC Inmarsat hourly ping #7 00:18 UTC MH370 Arrives Bandar Abbas, Iran (OIKB) 00:19 UTC Inmarsat "partial" ping (presumed end-of-flight / power down) 00:25 UTC UAE343 Arrives Dubai (OMDB) RATIONALE At the last (reported) point of contact on Malaysian military radar, MH370 was in extremely close proximity to another Boeing 777-200, Flight UAE343 en route from Kuala Lumpur to Dubai. Given the apparently deliberate course taken to reach that specific location at that specific time on that specific bearing, it is reasonable to speculate that this interception was deliberate, in order to intercept Flight UAE343. It is plausible that by flying "dark" (no lights, no transponder) and in close formation behind and below UAE343, MH370 could have "shadowed" UAE343 along its route, essentially "disappearing" from ground-based military radar (until such time as it broke formation). By flying in close formation with the identical plane, ground-based radar would be presented with either one radar signature or a common second "ghost" radar image, close enough to appear either erroneous or innocuous to radar control. Since this anomaly occurred in the middle of the night along a known commercial route, even if noticed, radar control may have thought it insignificant. By following UAE343 along Navigational Route N571 until the last known "ping" time of 00:19 UTC, we can reasonably estimate potential destinations for MH370. After breaking formation away from UAE343, MH370 would become visible to military radar; since this was not reported, it stands to reason the diversion occurred in an area absent of ("friendly") foreign radar coverage. The scenario presented provides the most direct route to the proposed destination and fits the timeline of known events closely. In terms of navigation, once a synchronous heading and speed were achieved, little interaction would be required, as there is only one waypoint to be set along Navigational Route N571 after interception - PARAR (4 hr 41 min of flight time away). SOURCES / ASSUMPTIONS / NOTES Sources: This analysis is based on the following publicly available data: Assumptions: Notes: We are aware that several of the concepts outlined herein have been presented elsewhere, drawing a variety of conclusions. A list of other sources and discussions will be added to the F.A.Q. page soon. MALAYSIAN AIRLINES FLIGHT MH370 - FINAL ESTIMATED FLIGHT ROUTE KUALA LUMPUR (WMKK) TO BANDAR ABBAS, IRAN (OIKB) TIME: 16:41 UTC - 00:19 UTC DURATION: 7 HR 38 MIN DISTANCE: 3363 nm (3870 mi) * AVE. SPEED: 440 KTS Source 1: http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/17:21/12x/MAS370/2d81a27 Source 2: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS370/history/20140307/1635Z/WMKK/ZBAA/tracklog Total Route: WMKK to OIKB (16:41 UTC - 00:19 UTC = 7 hr 38 min @ 440 KTS AVE.) http://skyvector.com/?ll=14.592089179516751,77.47558594102027&chart=304&zoom=10&plan=A.WM.WMKK:F.WS.IGARI:A.WM.WMKP:F.WM.VAMPI:F.WM.MEKAR:F.OO.PARAR:A.OI.OIZC:A.OI.OIKB Route segments: WMKK to IGARI (16:41 UTC - 17:21 UTC = 40 min @ 420 KTS AVE.) http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.129631374315006,99.89758301164774&chart=304&zoom=3&plan=A.WM.WMKK:F.WS.IGARI IGARI to MEKAR (17:21 UTC - 18:27 UTC = 1 hr 6 min @ 420 KTS AVE.) http://skyvector.com/?ll=6.129631374315006,99.89758301164774&chart=304&zoom=6&plan=F.WS.IGARI:A.WM.WMKP:F.WM.VAMPI:F.WM.MEKAR MEKAR to PARAR (18:27 UTC - 23:08 UTC = 4 hr 41 min @ 460 KTS AVE.) http://skyvector.com/?ll=15.995127115224223,74.63671875348038&chart=304&zoom=10&plan=F.WM.MEKAR:F.OO.PARAR PARAR to OIKB (23:08 UTC - 00:19 UTC = 1 hr 11 min @ 400 KTS AVE.) http://skyvector.com/?ll=25.57217555482377,59.2042236360761&chart=304&zoom=6&plan=F.OO.PARAR:A.OI.OIZC:A.OI.OIKB  UNITED ARAB EMIRATES FLIGHT UAE343 - FLIGHT DATA KUALA LUMPUR (WMKK) TO DUBAI (OMDB) TIME: 17:30 UTC - 00:25 UTC DURATION: 6 HR 55 MIN DISTANCE: 2998 nm (3450 mi) AVE. SPEED: 433 KTS Source 1: http://www.flightradar24.com/2014-03-07/18:33/12x/UAE343/2d83095 Source 2: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAE343/history/20140307/1710Z/WMKK/OMDB/tracklog Route: http://skyvector.com/?ll=14.592089179516751,77.47558594102027&chart=304&zoom=10&plan=A.WM.WMKK:F.WM.GUNIP:F.WM.MEKAR:F.OO.PARAR:A.OM.OMDB  DISCLAIMER This page contains an analysis and suggested theory of the disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 using known timelines derived from publicly available information, with all data sources provided. We do not profess to be experts in the fields of aviation, satellite frequency analysis or anything else related to this analysis, nor are we interested in "conspiracy theories" per se; this is strictly an attempt as casual observers to assemble the limited information available into a plausible scenario based on publicly available information. If new information becomes available which invalidates anything herein, we will gladly adjust accordingly. In fact, we hope this analysis is proven entirely erroneous. For further discussion regarding potential methodologies and motives, check out the F.A.Q. page.
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