Financial Appreciation

Typical Figures-

 FinancialsSkybus.doc

Route

10

km

Cap cost Rs 550 cr

550

 

Debt/equity

2.7

 

phpdtrips

20000

 

Equity 250 cr and debt 300 cr

Equity 150 cr and debt 400 cr

 

At minimum entry charge of Rs:

5

off peak

 

 

 

 

 

typical day:

 

10

in peak

 

 

 

 

 

Down direction 3 hrs of peak in a day of 20 hrs and rest of time 30%

 

 

 

occupation assumed:

 20,000 x 3 + 20,000 x 0.3 x 17=

162000

trips

 

 

 

charged at Min charge of Rs 5 per trip earns annually

29.565

cr

 

 

 

peak occupation direction for peak period min charge

10.95

cr

 

 

 

raised by Rs 5, gives extra

 

Total

40.515

cr

 

 

 

In the other direction too same load except peak may be at different time.

 

 

 

total will be………………………………………………Rs

81.03

cr   B

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With single direction peak flow the above is the position.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If both directions peaks occur simultaneously:

 

 

 

 

 

peak period trips

240000

yields at peak charge

87.6

cr

 

 

 

non-peak trips

168000

yields at  half-price

30.66

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total

118.26

cr   C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Add for floating population of 50000 trips a day at Rs 20 (Min entry charge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

add

36.5

cr  A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Max total

154.76

Cr  (A+C)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min

117.53

Cr  (A+B)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For daily users, alternate model of selling 1000 km per month at Rs 500

 

 

 

to 1.5 lac families yields  Rs

90

cr    D

 

 

 

 

 

Floating population

Rs

36.5

cr    A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

126.5

cr    E

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenses in operation:

Rs . Crores/annum

 

 

 

Scene 2

1.Staff salaries 300 persons

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

2.Management fee to KR

5

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Energy

 

 

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

4. Spare parts

 

2

 

Earnings before

 

 

 

 

 

Total

24

cr  EE

interest/depreciation

24

 

Interest on Rs 300 cr@12%

36

 

/taxes Cr

  E- EE

102.5

48

 

 

 

Total expenses

60

  F

Project cost/EBIDT

5.37

72

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net operating surplus

66.5

  E-F

 

 

 

54.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depreciation Provisions  5%

5%

27.5

 G

 

 

 

27.5

 

 

 

Profit

39

 H

 

 

 

27

 

Year

2008

2009

2010

2011

2013

2014

 

 

 

Cash surplus

66.5

66.5

66.5

66.5

66.5

66.5

 

54.5

 

Tax at 20% of Profit H

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

7.8

 

5.4

 

Equity holder takes as dividend

58.7

58.7

58.7

58.7

58.7

58.7

 

49.1

 

Entire equity amount recovered in 4 to 5 years. Debt managed at a cost of 12% per annum.

 

Dividend/Equity

23%

 

 

 

 

 

 

33%

 

 

on equity of

 

 

 

 

on equity of 150 cr

 

 

250 cr.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The fare box collections alone are taken into account. Imagine the traffic realisation

 

is not upto the mark, and consider drop in revenues by 20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income

 

101.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Expenditure

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Optg surplus

77.2

 

 

 

 

 

77.2

 

Interest

 

36

 

 

 

On 400 cr at 12%

48

 

Earnings before depreciation & taxes

 

41.2

 

 

 

 

 

29.2

 

Depreciation

27.5

 

 

 

 

 

27.5

 

Profit before taxes

13.7

 

 

 

 

 

1.7

 

Taxes on profit

2.74

 

 

 

 

 

0.34

 

Net Profit

 

10.96

 

 

 

 

 

1.36

 

Cash surplus

 

38.46

 

 

 

 

 

28.86

 

As % of equity

15%

on equity of 250 cr

 

If equity is 150 cr

19%

 

So between 5 to 7 years one can manage to recover the equity amount.

 

 

Debt can be maintained by re-financing at 12% is the assumption here.

 

 

 

Since international finance is available at 6 to 7% this should be possible.

 

 

 

Revenue risk is real- ridership is proven only after we experiment the first route and local condns.

 

play quite serious role. So additional comfort is required for the BOOT operator, to derive income

 

 from the real estate opportunity space created during the construction of Skybus.

 

 

Expected loss of revenues have to be partly compensated- by leasing out the 40% of 90000 sqm

 

 of space. To earn say Rs 20 cr per annum, the lease rental per sqm for 40,000 sqm ,say, is Rs

 

3000

So if a person takes 12 sq.m that is about 100 sq.ft, he has to pay monthly Rs 3000.

 

in CBD. It is not necessary that one gets always this revenue in the first year itself.

 

 

But this comfort for the BOOT operator   who is required to raise finances.