Articles

Forthcoming:

"Government Effectiveness and Support for Democracy," forthcoming in the European Journal of Political Research.

"The Nationalization of Electoral Cycles in the United States: A Wavelet Analysis, "with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Maria Joana Soares, forthcoming in Public Choice.

2012

2011

"Room for Manoeuvre: Euroscepticism in the Portuguese Parties and Electorate", with Marina Costa LoboSouth European Society and Politics 16 (1): 81-104. Also as a chapter in this book.

"As sondagens e os resultados eleitorais em Portugal" [Voting Intention Polls and Electoral Results in Portugal], with Luís Aguiar-Conraria and Manuel Maria Pereira, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Spring 2011: 37-52.

2010

"How Quorum Rules Distort Referendum Outcomes: Evidence from a Pivotal Voter Model," with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, European Journal of Political Economy 26 (4): 541-557.

"Referendum Design, Quorum Rules, and Turnout," with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Public Choice 144 (1-2): 63-81.

2009

"The Clarity of Policy Alternatives, Left-Right and the European Parliament Vote in 2004," with André Freire and Marina Costa Lobo, Journal of European Integration 31 (5):665-683. Also as a chapter in this book.

"Growth, Centrism, and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections", with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, Electoral Studies 28 (2): 314-321.

2008

"Redes sociais e participação eleitoral em Portugal" [Social Networks and Electoral Turnout in Portugal], Análise Social 43 (3):473-504.

"Uma previsão dos resultados eleitorais das eleições legislativas de 2009" [A forecast of the 2009 legislative election results in Portugal", with Luís Aguiar-Conraria, IPRIS-Verbis 8: 1-9 (expanded working paper version here).

2007

"What Are (Semi)Presidential Elections About? A Case Study of the Portuguese 2006 Elections", Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 17 (3): 263-291.

"As sondagens pré-eleitorais nas autárquicas de 2005" [The pre-election polls in the 2005 local elections], with Diogo Moreira, Comunicação & Cultura 3: 157-173.

2005

"Disaffected Democrats: Political Culture and Political Action in Portugal," West European Politics 28 (5):973-991.

"Pre-Election Polls in Portugal: Accuracy, Bias and Sources of Error, 1991-2004," International Journal of Public Opinion Research 17 (4): 399-421.

"As eleições presidenciais em sistemas semipresidenciais: participação eleitoral e punição dos governos" [Presidential Elections in Semi-Presidential Systems: Electoral Turnout and Government Punishment], with Braulio Gómez Fortes, Análise Social 40 (177): 891-922.

2003

"A confiança nos parlamentos nacionais: regras institucionais, representação e responsabilização política" [Trust in National Parliaments: Institutions, Representation and Accountability], Análise Social 38 (167): 891-922.

 "A abstenção portuguesa em perspectiva comparada" [Portuguese Abstention in Comparative Perspective], with André FreireEleições 7: 7-36.

2002

"The Return of the Portuguese Right: The 2001 Local Government Elections and the 2002 Legislative Elections," with Marina Costa Lobo, South European Society and Politics 7 (1): 72-89.

2001

"From 'Third Wave' to 'Third Way': The Socialist Party and European Integration," with Marina Costa Lobo, Journal of Southern Europe and the Balkans 3 (1): 25-35 (also published in Portuguese translation in Politica Internacional 3).

"Desigualdade, desinteresse e desconfiança: a abstenção nas eleições legislativas de 1999" [Inequality, Disinterest and Distrust: Abstention in the 1999 Legislative Elections], Análise Social 35 (157): 1079-1093.

2000

"A justiça constitucional: uma instituição contra as maiorias?" [Constitutional Justice: A Countermajoritarian Institution?], with António de Araújo, Análise Social 35 (154-155): 207-246.

"O activismo judicial na Europa do Sul" [Judicial Activism in Southern Europe], with Carlo Guarnieri, Sub Judice 14: 7-14.

1999

"The Politics of Judicial Reform in Eastern Europe," Comparative Politics 32 (1): 43-62.

"Corporativismo, judicialização da política e a 'crise da justiça' em Portugal" [Corporatism, the judicialization of politics and the 'crisis of the judicial system' in Portugal," Revista do Ministério Público 79.

1998

"A justiça constitucional entre o direito e a política: o comportamento judicial no Tribunal Constitucional português" [Constitutional Justice Between Law and Politics: Judicial Behavior in the Portuguese Constitutional Court], with António de Araújo, Análise Social 33 (145): 7-53.

 1995

"Democratização e independência judicial em Portugal" [Democratization and Judicial Independence in Portugal], Análise Social 30 (130): 51-90.